Original title: what's the housing price forecast for 2019? What will the housing price change in 2019
The blue book of real estate: China's real estate development report No.16 (2019) jointly released by the Institute of urban development and environment, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and social sciences literature press on the 23rd predicts that the steady adjustment of the real estate market in 2019 will not change substantially, and more attention should be paid to the main responsibility of local governments in real estate regulation.
Blue Book believes that, looking forward to 2019, under the framework of prudent monetary policy, the central bank will be able to effectively 'drip irrigate' the economy from multiple dimensions such as flow, flow direction and term, so as to further improve the transmission efficiency of combined policy tools for the market and prevent 'flooding'. However, the stimulating effect of monetary policy on the real estate market is limited. In addition, the control idea of "no speculation in real estate and no policy in the city" has not changed. It is expected that the steady adjustment trend of the real estate market will not change substantially in 2019. As far as the whole country is concerned, the growth rate of commercial housing sales may continue to slow down, the overall rise of house prices will fall, the land trading market will return to rationality, and the growth rate of real estate investment will further callback.
The blue book points out that in 2019, the real estate policy will still adhere to the principles of "no speculation in real estate and housing" and "implementing policies according to the city", but may be moderately relaxed under the influence of internal and external demand factors of the industry. Healthy and stable development is the top priority of the real estate market; The real estate regulation policy differentiation is the general trend. In addition, the regulation policy also emphasizes flexibility, and pays more attention to the expansion of the main responsibility and autonomy of local governments in real estate regulation.
According to the blue book, it is expected that the policy adjustment will be carried out in a structured way, and all localities will give full play to the main responsibility of city governments and implement fine-tuning. The results of market operation in different cities will be obviously differentiated. The first and second tier cities focus on protecting rigid demand and improving demand. Under the marginal improvement of policy, the market transaction activity will be improved, and the sales area may achieve a small growth year on year; The third - and fourth tier cities will treat the housing reform and resettlement differently, and the areas that have completed the inventory removal will gradually withdraw or reduce the monetary resettlement. Due to the loss of strong policy backing and the overdraft of market demand, market sales are likely to fall further.
According to the blue book, the average sales price of residential buildings in China will be about 9206 yuan / m2 in 2019, with an expected price increase of 7.6%. Prices in some key cities will substantially exceed this expected level. We should strengthen multi-level forecasting, monitoring and early warning in some key cities, and take preventing price from stimulating market fluctuations as the key goal of regulation.