What is the soaring price of natural gas? Why is it soaring?
4hw.org: natural gas is a necessity of our life now. As the winter gets colder and colder, heating increases, and the demand increases step by step, the price of natural gas soars all the way, and natural gas is in an urgent need everywhere. How to solve the tense problem? Emergency plans have been adopted everywhere.
What is the price of natural gas in winter?
The price of natural gas has continued to soar in recent years, and the price has constantly set a new record. At present, the market price of domestic LNG has exceeded 8000 yuan / ton. Analysts said that since this year, environmental protection supervision has been strengthened, coal to gas has been accelerated, and natural gas consumption has exploded. In the future, the price increase is expected to slow down, but the high price will continue.
Natural gas has been tight since November 22. Before that, similar news came from Ningxia, Shaanxi and other places. Shaanxi daily news pointed out that the demand for natural gas in winter heating period increased, the gap between supply and demand expanded, and the pressure of natural gas supply was large.
The supply gap leads to price rise, and the most direct one is LNG price. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from November 21 to 30, 2017, the price of liquefied natural gas (LND) in 24 provinces (regions and cities) was 5636.7 yuan per ton, an increase of 28.3% over the previous period, and 60.2% over the same period in September.
For this reason, the national development and Reform Commission recently issued a notice to uniformly deploy relevant provincial, district and municipal price authorities to immediately hold a warning meeting on LNG price regulations and policies, to remind all LNG production and circulation enterprises and relevant social organizations within the jurisdiction, to strengthen price self-discipline and regulate price behavior.
The 21st century economic reporter learned that the above-mentioned meetings involved enterprises in the main production areas of liquefied natural gas, enterprises in the main terminals of imported liquefied natural gas, and enterprises in the main sales areas of liquefied natural gas.
Lin Boqiang, director of the energy economy collaborative innovation center of Xiamen University, pointed out that the rapid rise in short-term LNG prices is related to coal to gas heating in Hebei and other places. But this should be a partial tension, which should be solved in two or three weeks.
LNG prices soared 60% in two months
21st century economic reporter noted that the tight supply of natural gas has led to the price increase in many areas, the biggest increase is liquefied natural gas.
In Hubei Province, for example, Wuhan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. has issued a notice that there is a shortage of gas consumption nationwide in the near future. The company has launched an emergency plan to ensure supply in winter. If the situation is further intensified, it will take measures to limit, time limit and stop supply for industrial and commercial enterprises to fully guarantee the demand for gas for people's livelihood.
On November 28, Baoding Xin'ao Gas Co., Ltd. issued a message to all user units, pointing out that CNPC North sales branch has informed that since October 21, there will be no increase in natural gas supply resources. Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission decided to launch the natural gas demand side management mechanism of the whole province and enter the orange early warning of natural gas supply of the whole province from 0:00 on November 28.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the price of LNG in China was 3129.1 yuan per ton from August 21 to 30, 2017, 3519 yuan in September, 4337.4 yuan in October and 5636.7 yuan in November. According to this, the price of LNG in November rose by 80% compared with August, 60% compared with September and about 30% compared with October.
Why is the price of liquefied natural gas rising so fast? Yang Fuqiang, a senior consultant of the natural resources commission of the United States, pointed out that the price of natural gas for residential use and for industrial and commercial use can not rise randomly, but the price of liquefied natural gas as a supplement is the market auction price, so the price is rising fast.
'all regions are speeding up the transformation of coal to gas treatment, and more and more coal will be added layer by layer, which reduces the coal consumption. However, the demand for natural gas is increasing, and the actual supporting supply needs to keep up. 'he said.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, with the promotion of "coal to gas" and other projects, the demand for natural gas is strong, and the output has maintained a rapid growth since this year. In October, the output of natural gas was 12.41 billion cubic meters, up 15.4% year on year; the import of natural gas was 5.81 million tons, up 52.1% year on year, up 48.2 percentage points from September.
Miao Yingying, an analyst at jinlianchuang natural gas market, pointed out that in general, the growth rate of China's natural gas demand is faster than that of natural gas supply. Since 2016, the country has changed coal to gas, gasification rural areas and coal heating to natural gas heating. The consumption of natural gas in all aspects has been significantly increased, so the overall consumption of natural gas has grown very fast, but the whole supply has not kept up with the development speed of consumption, resulting in the situation that the supply is not in demand.
There are two main reasons for the rising price of natural gas. Let's take a look.
1. Tight air supply in winter
Since 2013, the price of natural gas has been subject to gate price and guided by the national development and Reform Commission, while in specific regions, the retail price of non residential gas is regulated by the price bureau and formulated by urban gas companies. This year, in particular, the gas volume of terminal pipelines in North China and East China has been tightened since September. In order to ensure the downstream gas consumption, plan the natural gas resources as a whole, and guide the marketization of natural gas prices, CNPC guided its natural gas sales companies to participate in the natural gas volume auction in Shanghai oil and gas trading center. In the bidding process, most of the regions with tight gas volume are closed at the highest price of 20% floating above, which is the reason why the natural gas prices reflected by the downstream natural gas users are increased.
However, the price hike of natural gas reflected in the pipeline natural gas is not timely because of the control of the price bureau. However, as a market-oriented LNG market, its performance is particularly obvious. In the last week of September, the daily average growth rate of 150-300 yuan / ton continued to rise. On the one hand, environmental protection promotes the downstream "coal to gas", and the demand for LNG point supply increases significantly. Due to the shortage of gas volume, the LNG market is in short supply; on the other hand, the top price auction of natural gas increases the cost of LNG plant, which pushes up the LNG market price under the support of cost.
As of December 2016, 18 provinces including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have issued policies on "coal to gas" and "coal to power". The growth rate of natural gas consumption has accelerated significantly. According to statistics of Zhongyu information, the apparent consumption of natural gas in China was 155.099 billion cubic meters from January to August 2017, up 14.75% year on year. As far as the current situation is concerned, the domestic sales volume of natural gas in this winter and next spring may reach a new high, and the supply and demand situation of natural gas in this winter's heating period is more severe.
The national development and Reform Commission requires CNPC to complete and put into operation the Shaanxi Beijing fourth line and the Zhongjing connecting line by the end of October; SINOPEC should put Tianjin LNG terminal into operation by the end of the year. It is understood that there are four bid sections for the Shaanxi Beijing fourth line project, with a total length of 1114 km. By the beginning of August 2017, more than 80% of the total 970 KM has been welded. At the end of October, with the operation of the fourth Shaanxi Beijing line, it will play an important role in expanding the supply of natural gas in North China, improving the capacity of peak shaving in winter and controlling air pollution. The operation of Sinopec Tianjin LNG terminal is bound to increase LNG import. According to statistics of Zhongyu information, from January to August 2017, the total amount of natural gas import was 42.5205 million tons, an increase of 25.45% year-on-year. The imported natural gas greatly complemented China's natural gas supply.
This winter, after the start of the heating season, due to the increase of downstream natural gas users, in addition to the fact that gas heating has been used in many heating areas in winter and coal heating has been controlled, the demand for natural gas is large, and the supply is still very tight. In October, PetroChina's gas volume has been sold out. After the National Day holiday, some factories said they did not limit the gas. It is expected that the gas volume will be tight or reflected in the late October, and the gas volume auction of the next month will be held in the late October. It is expected that the price of natural gas will continue to maintain the top selling state.
2. Infrastructure construction lags behind
Minsheng securities analysts told China Securities News that the price increase of natural gas will slow down in the future, but the high price of natural gas will continue when the demand is hard to meet.
The above analysts said that since this year, environmental protection supervision has been strengthened, "coal to gas" has been continuously promoted, and natural gas consumption has seen explosive growth. In 2016, the net import volume of LNG was 36.145 billion cubic meters, an increase of 32.6% year on year. Foreign dependence increased to 34.3%. Winter is the peak season of natural gas demand, and it is expected that the supply gap will increase in winter driven by "coal to gas". In this context, it is very important to improve the self-sufficiency rate of domestic natural gas.
Wu Dongdong said that this winter's natural gas demand is still not at its peak, while the supply side is weak. With the outbreak of demand, the lag of natural gas infrastructure construction is highlighted. There is much room for improvement in the receiving station, gas storage station, pipe network equipment, etc. In the summer off-season, the utilization rate of some equipment is low, but it is difficult to guarantee the demand in the peak season, and the peak valley regulation capacity is insufficient. In this context, natural gas infrastructure construction is expected to accelerate, and natural gas engineering and storage and transportation equipment companies will benefit.
The NDRC held a warning meeting to calm prices
In the face of the rapid rise of LNG prices, the national development and Reform Commission requires 11 regions to hold a warning meeting on December 4 for LNG price regulations and policies, and submit it to the price supervision bureau of the national development and Reform Commission.
These areas include Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Shanxi, Sichuan, Shandong, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Beijing and Hebei. The participants include the main LPG producing area enterprises, relevant associations, etc., as well as the main LNG terminal sales enterprises and associations, the main LNG selling area enterprises and relevant associations.
The national development and Reform Commission reminded all LNG enterprises and relevant social organizations to maintain the order of the industry, not to bid up prices maliciously, not to cheat in prices, not to collude with each other, manipulate market prices, not to abuse market dominance, not to reach monopoly agreements, not to carry out other forms of price violations and price monopoly.
A gas industry expert pointed out that at present, the market as a whole is not short of natural gas, and there is a situation of high price and tight market. Some enterprises think that the price of natural gas sold in the past is too low, and they can seek more benefits through this way. 'at the end of the day, upstream companies want to raise prices, while downstream companies want to buy cheap gas. The demands of both sides are inconsistent. 'said the person.
It is understood that this year, there are about 2 million households in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region involved in coal to gas transformation. In addition to the situation of coal to gas transformation in Shandong, Shaanxi and other places, there may be several million households in China. According to the national policy, in the peak season of natural gas consumption in winter, the benchmark gate station price of non residential natural gas can fluctuate within 20%.
Miao Yingying believes that the warning meeting did not set a practical limit on the price of natural gas, did not stipulate the minimum price and the maximum price, but only served as a warning. The next step is to solve the contradiction between supply and demand and increase the capacity-building of natural gas supply.