Why is bike sharing so hot? Sharing bike fire what's the next sharing?
4hw.org: in recent two years, China's mobile payment has developed rapidly like a big explosion, which has resulted in many new products subverting the traditional industry. At present, the most popular shared bicycle is one. The reason why shared bicycle is so popular is that mobile payment is highly developed and inseparable, sharing bicycle is convenient and fast, and experience makes users impeccable, and is deeply consumed by the main force of current consumption -- young People's love.
Compared with taxi software, bike sharing creates a brand new market.
The city government was also trying to solve the problem of the last kilometer trip. Cities like Shanghai or Beijing have no way to build. Other big cities, like Wuhan and Shenzhen, are frantically building bridges and roads. Five years later, you will find that there is no road to build.
In this case, it is necessary to rely on public transport, which will solve the problem of convenient travel in the last kilometer, so it is very natural for people to think of bicycles.
But the problem is that the traditional way of government to solve the last kilometer travel plan, using the way of public utilities to solve, shows the problem of insufficient innovation ability.
For example, before the private bike sharing mode of Mobai and ofo entered Shenzhen, the Shenzhen government had already built a lot of bicycle parking posts. In this case, bicycles were soon deployed. Even if there is no bike sharing, there will be solutions provided by the government, but it is not convenient.
Shared bicycles provided by the government must be taken from designated places and stored in designated places. That is to say, it is inconvenient to use the vehicle pile to manage the bicycle.
But the government didn't expect to take advantage of the features of the Internet. This is the magic of the free market, which can try to make use of various conditions.
On the fitting innovation from sharing bicycle
The reason why bike sharing has opened up a new market is that, like Didi, it actually uses one of the most basic things: mobile phones can be moved, and mobile phones can be positioned. Bike sharing doesn't use the positioning function of mobile phones. It uses mobile phones to carry around, which can bind the characteristics of people. Online car Hailing uses the location function of mobile phones. Lbs has been noisy for several years before online car hailing, that is, location service. As a result, it has not been found for a long time, making use of this technology. What does this mean?
We call didi or shared bike innovation. I call it application fitting innovation. Generally speaking, the industry is called business model innovation. In my opinion, the most accurate way is to complete an application fitting. What are the characteristics of this innovation? When a technology is spread out, everyone tries to apply this technology to various industries and aspects. If you find the best application place after a technology matures, then it can be said that this innovation is very successful and is the best direction. In fact, from the past industrial history, it is also such a way of development.
For example, before watt improved the steam engine, it was called the Newcomen steam engine. The new Komen steam engine inventor was not the first one, but the second one. New Komen steam engine appeared to Watt improvement, in the middle of 50 years. In the past 50 years, the new Komen steam engine has only one thing to do, that is, to pump water into the mine. Why didn't Newcomen steam engine lead to the development of application? It turns out that its thermal efficiency is too low, so it is very cumbersome. If you want it to move, you have to put a lot of dyes in it. If you don't fix it, it's very difficult to pull it. So it can't be used for mobile devices, it can only be fixed, so scenes are emerging.
Because the steam engine was improved in 1776, the year of the founding of the United States. After watt improved, its scene expanded. It was first used on ships. Why? Because ships have buoyancy in the water and can bear more weight. It has a better push than. For example, 5000 watts of power can push one ton on land and three tons on water. Application on water is the first project to break out.
With the improvement of steam engine efficiency, more power can be generated with smaller volume and lighter weight. This application has been extended to land. Then the application of steam engine began. So what I want to say is that most of all innovation, whether it's tuyere or opportunity, is actually based on a certain technology maturity. Once a certain technology matures, people will carry out various explorations. At present, there are a lot of researches on innovation, but I don't think it's instructive.
The most important point is that people have application prospects for what, what has no application prospects, and lack a basic structural cognition. So what is structural cognition? I just said, for example, you are information service, what information value do you provide? We lack such a way of questioning and thinking. Including Christensen's innovation, he wrote "the innovator's dilemma" in the 1980s and then became angry. This book is of no value, but just a subversive slogan. Later, he wrote the innovator's answer. He just put forward the concept of disruptive innovation, but it did not give a way and structural thinking scheme. So now most of the innovations are basically blind.
Well, let's talk about sharing bicycles. It uses the mobile phone to carry around, scan QR code, unlock and pay easily. First, it is based on the mobile Internet, without which there is no bike sharing; second, it is based on the mature mobile payment. Without the maturity of mobile payment, it is impossible to have a shared bicycle. After the event analysis, it is very logical.
Another characteristic of business. Let's talk about sharing bicycles. I think its model has been overstated. For example, Moby and ofo are valued at 10 billion yuan, which is a bit exaggerated. Some people say that its business model is too good. You see, it doesn't make much money from car rental and maintenance costs, but it's a natural flow bank. Because when you rent a car, you have to pay the deposit first, and you have to input your mobile phone number, real name and so on. In other words, it becomes a small banking office after building a car. I think it's very exaggerated, not so mysterious.
Because some businesses, no matter how good or how innovative, have to go through the test of competition. If you ask for deposit 299, I will be more attractive to customers. In theory, without competition barriers, competition will be unprofitable. Therefore, the robustness of the business model must take into account the extent to which it can bring its own barriers to competition.
What is innovation? We need to know a basic principle. That is, our world is thriving by expanding the categories of goods and services. If you take the categories of industrial society out now, and calculate the categories of agricultural society, you will find that the per capita GDP is almost the same as before, that is, the level of more than 600 US dollars. Why does the global per capita GDP have more than 10000 US dollars now, that is, the industry has increased countless categories. Although the original municipal government also promoted bike sharing, its promotion was limited for some reasons. But in terms of economics, it has also created a small category. In terms of economic rationality, it should also be praised for it.
Social factors of bike sharing success: we are just as poor
Besides technical factors, there are also social factors for the success of bike sharing mode. It's a good time. We are relatively rich now.
If we are still poor, such as the 1990s, or 2000, this can not be done. Because people will have a strong incentive to steal. For example, in San Ge, it's estimated that it's not good to do this. People's behavior is determined by their economic level. You can't do this if the proportion is too large.
If it is too rich, for example, with a per capita GDP of $340000, bike sharing is more likely to be a free benefit. In such a model, you should not underestimate the cost of one or two yuan. In this case, the private sector will be unprofitable and become a public enterprise.
On the other hand, apart from technical factors, the success of bike sharing mode in developed countries has lasted for a long time. We are a little poorer, just a little shorter. The more developed, the greater the public expenditure. If the developed cities provide us with roads and transportation, the economy will have no interest.
So from the perspective of social factors, this time point of bike sharing is also better.
In the era of artificial intelligence, technology breakthroughs and human needs are still at the tuyere
Finally, I would like to say that every time we encounter a window of innovation, there will be a lot of funds, attempts and even sacrifices, and we will achieve a great success. Through many attempts, one or two reliable directions can be found. So is there any way to do this? I think there is. I think all innovation faces two obstacles. One is technological breakthrough. Because now there are many very clear needs, such as extending life, such as the protective coating on teeth, which makes teeth not easy to wear, and is not easy to break through in technology. This is the obstacle of technological breakthrough.
But at present, all the application innovation and technology innovation are facing the problem of unclear demand and demand fitting. At present, most of the obstacles are demand, not technology. For example, when I teach here, I want to use it as a profit to make money, but it is not feasible. There are many questions.
The best opportunity window for demand fitting innovation lies in technological breakthrough. After the breakthrough of steam engine technology, people explore the application of steam engine technology. After the breakthrough of electric power technology, people explore the application of electric power, which is only lighting at first, and then many functions. What's the next technological breakthrough? Obviously, it's artificial intelligence. But they will also face the same problems as the mobile Internet. What are they used to do? The people who write are just talking about it, but the people who do things need to invest money, energy and good youth. Once the investment is wrong, it will be a disaster.
We can get some inspiration from sharing bicycles by grasping how the technology is applied. One is about needs, and the other is about people we are studying. People's demand for information products is very refined. I see that a lot of things are impossible. After adjustment, something is possible. Today, it will not be expanded.
There was almost no preparation before the lecture, but a little arrangement after it. It seems that I can make a statement.