4hw.org: according to the information from the Meteorological Bureau, typhoon 'Taili' will land in the southeast coastal area of China at the end of this year. It is reported that this typhoon is defined as a super typhoon, and its influence is absolutely greater than the previous pigeons and Paka. Let's see the details below!
The center of typhoon 'Talim' (tropical storm scale, English Name: Talim; name source: Philippines; name meaning: obvious edge) is located at 5 o'clock in the morning today (10th) on the ocean about 2160 km east of Manila in the Philippines. It is 15.7 degrees north latitude and 141.1 degrees east longitude. The maximum wind force near the center is 8 degrees (18 meters / second), the minimum air pressure at the center is 1000 HPA, and the wind circle at level 7 Radius 80-180 km.
It is predicted that 'Taili' will move to the northwest at a speed of about 20 kilometers per hour, and the intensity will gradually increase, and the strongest can reach strong typhoon level or super typhoon level (14-16, 45-52 M / s). After skimming the sea surface of the southern Taiwan island of China around the 14th, it approached the coast of Guangdong and Fujian, and may land in this area.
Typhoon 'Taili', which has attracted much attention, was generated at 8 p.m. on September 9. Prior to this, the official of China Meteorological Administration has "qinding" it as a super typhoon, causing a lot of media reports and public attention. We also pointed out in our article the day before yesterday that it will be the first 'real typhoon' in 2017.
It will be the first 'real typhoon' in 2017.
September 9 evening cloud map of Northwest Pacific Ocean, Taili is located in the center of warm pool
Why do you say that? Since this year, the number of typhoons in the Northwest Pacific is normal, but their intensity is seriously weak. What's more, they are all "wild roads", which are all piled up in the South China Sea and the high latitude Ocean south of Japan. In previous years, the "warm pool" to the east of the Philippines, which has the most typhoons, has almost no typhoon generation and activity.
From January 1 to September 8, 2017, the typhoon tracks in the Northwest Pacific gathered, and the typhoon activities in the warm pool framed by the box were rare
This leads to two results: 1. The typhoon energy index of the Northwest Pacific has been surpassed by the Atlantic Ocean and the northeast Pacific Ocean, ranking the last in the three ocean regions, with a rare history. Generally speaking, it is the first in the Northwest Pacific in previous years.
As of September 8, 2017, the strong tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific, the northeast Pacific and the North Atlantic were compared. According to JTWC and NOAA data, Chinese Meteorological enthusiasts made statistics
2. Because there is no typhoon consumption for a long time, and it has been exposed to the sun for a long time, the Pacific 'warm pool' to the east of the Philippines is now unacceptably warm. There is a large range of warm ocean surface of more than 30 degrees, and the heat enthalpy of the sea water is generally higher than 75 kJ / cm2, which is higher than the ocean surface along the path of the historic strong Atlantic hurricane 'Emma'. We need to know that the enthalpy of 35 kJ / cm2 can support super typhoon under other conditions.
The bottom map of the sea surface temperature along the Taili path is from NOAA
If you don't sing, you'll be amazed. Born in the center of the warm pool, Terry has almost inexhaustible energy. Of course, whether it can become a super typhoon or this year's wind king is not determined by China Meteorological Administration, but depends on other conditions and historical progress. However, there is no doubt that it will be at least strengthened into a large and strong typhoon, reaching or exceeding the intensity of pigeon typhoon at its peak.
In terms of the path, the subtropical high was stable and strong at the time of thali formation. Therefore, on September 9-13, it will rush westward under the guidance of a strong subtropical high to the entrance of the South China Sea; at this time (September 13), the subtropical high will be greatly weakened by the influence of the westerly trough, and Taili will slow down. As for the Deputy high-strength, it will cross the Bashi strait into the South China Sea and rush to Guangdong in the West; as for the Deputy high-strength, it will land in Taiwan and Fujian in the north, and the possibility of turning around without affecting China is very small.