What are the 2017 National Day movie box office forecasts
4hw.org: the summer vacation has passed, and the National Day is coming. The smoke of war wolf 2, which swept the summer vacation archives, is gradually disappearing, and the box office battle of the National Day archives has quietly started. It is reported that 14 films have been assembled in the National Day archives, who will become famous at one stroke and who will lose. We will wait and see. Next, we will see which films are released in the National Day archives!
As far as the National Day archives are concerned, they will not let go of this advantage. Many films have been announced in advance before the start of shooting, which is enough to see the importance of this schedule for domestic films.
In 2015, the National Day archives' three parts of the world 'won 1.85 billion super high box office, while last year saw the first negative growth of National Day archives. After "jueji" and "passing through the world from you" failed to meet the standards, they finally ended up with 1.58 billion only supported by "Mekong action". This year, Jackie Chan, Andy Lau, Feng Xiaogang, Kaixin Mahua, Dapeng and many other stars have flocked here. With the advantage of more than one day's schedule, the 'most crowded' National Day archives in history naturally hope to boom out 'a new record'.
It is worth noting that "chasing the dragon" and "the devil" are both directed by Wang Jing, while Yao Lai film and television also bought the "double insurance", while ray media directly or indirectly stood in line with three films. Because the overall situation of domestic films in the first half of this year is not good, the "rush schedule" like the National Day archive will naturally become a arena for fighting.
At present, there have been large-scale publicity of films one month in advance, and many films have held press conferences or road shows. And can the 'confident' domestic films achieve what they want?
More than 80 capital parties came to attack,
Against the pressure of performance?
Recently, many film and television companies have published semi annual reports, which is not optimistic in general. Top giants like ray and Huayi have seen their gross profit rate fall as a result of rising operating costs. The "new upstarts" in the industry seeking transformation reflect a great contrast. There are Jiahang media, which relies on artists' brokers, and Jimei film, which relies on Luc Middleton Besson as a bet and loses money in succession.
But behind the 14 National Day films this year, there are more than 80 investors. There have been a number of "tragedies" staged, but a large number of films still choose to "carry thunder forward". As one of the most important schedules in the second half of the year, the importance of National Day archives is self-evident. Compared with the previous two years, the increase of the number of screens makes the market more 'inclusive'. As can be seen from the RMB 800 million in the first day of the Spring Festival and the RMB 400 million in the single day box office of "wolf 2", the throughput of the market is more adequate.
It is hoped that the increase of market heat will usher in multiple returns, which may also be an important reason for many capital parties to 'bet' one after another. But generally speaking, the capital behind the capital pressure of the film works has the ambition and determination to "recreate brilliance" or "make up for regret".
The summer film "wolf 2" is the only one with a total box office of nearly 5.5 billion, becoming the "national representative" of domestic films.
Among the 21 producers behind it, as many as 8 went to fight for the National Day archives. Spring and Autumn period, Luming film industry, Jiecheng century and star era all stood in line to create the flavor of "war wolf 2" in the air war version.
Recently, happy Mahua IPO was suspended due to the resignation of the signing lawyer. The reason why happy twist, known as "the first share of drama", can become a "new capital" is due to the explosion of Charlotte's troubles in the film market. But last year's performance fell sharply. Now the IPO's repeated failures may make it under pressure.
However, the film is also under the pressure of IPO of Xinli media, which just announced the restart of IPO at the end of June. Naturally, Xinli media needs the support of "burst funds". In addition to the main control of "demon cat" and "Ruyi", participating in "iron fist of shame" may also have a certain impact on its IPO.
With the successful case of Charlotte's troubles, iron fist of shame is faced with not only a large foundation but also a lot of pressure, especially the IPO of two capitals on its back.
In addition, Feng Xiaogang's new film "Fanghua" has been promoted to the National Day archives early, which seems to make up for the regret of "I'm not Pan Jinlian". With the same artistic attributes, the same expedition to Toronto International Film Festival and the same national day, Fanghua seems to be not as simple as "cultivating new people".
The production cost of the film has reached 130 million yuan. Although Feng Xiaogang no longer boldly predicted the box office, he also set a small goal of 20 million people watching the film. According to the average ticket price of nearly 33 yuan last year, the expected box office has reached 660 million yuan.
After "I'm not Pan Jinlian", Feng Xiaogang accelerated the production of "Fanghua". This film is not only an important work to re verify Feng Xiaogang's box office appeal, but also the inevitable result of his flowing into the "capital muddy water".
Last year's "I'm not Pan Jinlian" failed to secure a minimum of 500 million yuan. The short-term "pain" has passed, and the long-term "scars" are hard to eliminate. Because Dongyang Meila and Huayi have signed a five-year agreement on gambling, there is no less pressure on Fanghua, a company with a small output. Last year, it was reported that the Dongyang Meila "cut the line", but this year's volume has shrunk, but the performance target for gambling has increased by 15%. Fanghua still has a great capital importance.
Wang Jing's two films entered the stage to fight,
Who is the king of genre in action movies and comedies?
Wang Jing, who has been put on the stage successively by the fantasy comedy "subduing the devil" and the action movie "chasing the dragon", is ambitious, and basically has a certain volume level in terms of its film type. This year's National Day films cover action, comedy, crime, fantasy, love, youth, animation and other types, among which the most explosive are action films and comedies.
Comedy has always been the number one player in the schedule of popular movies. The happy and numb iron fist and the second sewing machine band directed by Dapeng are the two most representative 'seed players'. Whether it is volume level or film style, it has certain competitiveness.
Among them, happy Mahua's "iron fist of shame" is the most popular movie among the fans, because the summer movie "father and son soldier" starred by Dapeng did not perform well, and happy Mahua's last year's "donkey gets water" was the most well-known Chinese cinema movie. Relying on its powerful drama IP, happy twist comedy film has a very wide market.
As the third happy Mahua movie, Shen Teng, Ma Li and Allen's iron triangle are back again. "Iron fist of shame" also exudes a strong 're engraved Charlotte' temperament. At present, the film has started a large-scale roadshow, and its repercussions are also very warm.
The biggest advantage of happy Mahua is that there is a high degree of overlap between the mainstream audience of its drama and the main audience of the film. Most of its films are adapted from the drama IP, which also allows it to have enough time to adjust the film. Although Charlotte's troubles has made 1.4 billion box office, its sense of drama has been criticized. Last year's "donkey gets water" has changed a lot. With the return of Shen Teng and Ma Li, the volume level of the film has been significantly improved, and the golden signboard produced by Kaixin Mahua has made it more successful.
As the second director of Dapeng, sewing machine band also has the "IP halo" of pancake man. But compared with happy twist comedy, whether Dapeng comedy is still accepted by the market is its biggest hidden danger.
In action movies, Jackie Chan starred in the "British duel" is undoubtedly the most interesting. Jackie Chan returns to Hollywood, but no longer focuses on his iconic 'Kung Fu Comedy', instead, he looks serious and dignified and plays a good father who revenge for his daughter.
This Hollywood action blockbuster is bound to have full competitiveness. During the Spring Festival, Jackie Chan won the championship by fighting against the attack of Kung Fu yoga, and the total box office exceeded 1.7 billion, which fully verified Jackie Chan's outstanding appeal. Now with the National Day film, Jackie Chan's appearance in a completely different type of film can also bring some new ideas to the audience. And new year's, Jackie Chan and science fiction action movie "blood of the machine" are on the March.
Jackie Chan is still the most important force in the film market.
In addition, the new "chasing the dragon" also has a relatively strong strength. After "war wolf 2", Bona film's "kill the wolf & middot; greedy wolf" performance is acceptable. Nowadays, there are some similar styles of "chasing the dragon" which still have relatively strong strength.
Everyone in the big production strives to be the 'best money',
Is there the possibility of "black horse" in "the most crowded" in history?
However, there must be a lot of risks in the same type of blockbusters. Once it causes serious aesthetic fatigue of the audience, it will cause serious diversion of its films. And the so-called "head resources" bear more pressure of word-of-mouth. Once word-of-mouth collapses, the box office trend of the movie will decline rapidly.
Last year's national day, the main melody blockbuster "action on the Mekong River" came to the fore, beating "passing by from your world" and "jueji" to win the title, officially improving the market heat of the main melody. On the national day of the previous year, "Charlotte troubles" is also a counter attack with the attitude of black horse, winning the championship by "black horse" for two consecutive years, which makes people have to re-examine the competitiveness of "black horse".
This year, although action movies and comedies are still the most popular films in the market, there are also some films with the potential of "black horse".
The light of the city of psychological crime is the first film jointly created by Anle film and Shanghai Film Group ten years later, with Zhonglun and Jiang Zhiqiang as film supervisors and Deng Chao, Ruan Jingtian and Liu Shishi as the leading stars. The cast of this movie is also very strong, especially the big IP of "psychological crime" is still attractive.
But now the market of crime type films is not hot, and the performance of Li Yifeng's version of "psychological crime" released in summer is not in line with the expectations of the outside world. As a typical representative of multiple branches of big IP, due to the close distance between the two psychological crimes, the city light of psychological crimes is easily influenced by Li Yifeng's version of psychological crimes.
But if the movie can break through the word-of-mouth, then the advantages of its lineup will be reflected, there is also the possibility of black horse counter attack.
Another film with the potential of "black horse" is Feng Xiaogang's "Fanghua". In addition to the emotional factors of the film's main theme "youth of the literary Troupe", the movie's war drama is also a major focus. Fanghua, known as the "sister piece" of "assembly", has a 6-minute "one mirror to the end". It is reported that the war play costs 7 million yuan. Feng Xiaogang specially studied the shooting techniques of "blood battle hacksaw ridge". Therefore, Feng Xiaogang has full confidence in the film.
But the embarrassment of Fanghua is that there is no star with box office appeal except Huang Xuan. Although the film can keep high box office, it is still difficult to break through the market without the corresponding volume level.
In addition, last year, Xiyi film industry, which was "popular" for "battle of the hacksaw ridge", brought a brand-new "ultimate pursuit", an action movie made by the top Hollywood production team also showed full ambition. Today, the film held a press conference in Beijing, with the appearance of "Prince of the elves" Orlando & middot bloom. After that, the film will launch a national roadshow. Orlando & middot bloom and the creator will go to many cities to interact with fans.
The hot movie "star agent" makes Kemei film industry eager to change