What is the intensity of typhoon Paka
4hw.org: Typhoon Tiange has just left. This year's typhoon No.14 has been formed and is about to land in the South China Sea. This morning, the weather station issued a laser warning, and the wind force in the center of typhoon Paka will reach level 8. Now let's see the road map and intensity information of Paka.
@Central Meteorological Station: Typhoon 'pakhar' (tropical storm level, English Name: pakhar, name source: Laos, name meaning: a freshwater fish growing in the lower Mekong River) was generated in the sea east of the Philippines on the night of the 24th. At 8:00 on the 25th, its center was located on the sea surface about 315 km east by north of Manila, Philippines, with the maximum wind force of 8 levels (20 m / s) near the center.
It is predicted that 'Paka' will move at a speed of about 15 kilometers per hour and gradually strengthen its strength. It will land on the coast of Luzon Island in the Philippines on the evening of the 25th, cross Luzon Island and enter the eastern sea of the South China Sea on the 26th after passing through Luzon Island. It will gradually approach the coast from the central part of Guangdong to the eastern part of Hainan, and land on the above coast on the 27th (strong tropical storm or typhoon, 10-12, 25-33 M / s) 。
What's worse is that typhoon 14 'Paka' and typhoon 13 'pigeon' have basically the same path.
@Typhoon monitoring: at present, the subtropical high is still strong. The current circulation situation of 'Paka' is similar to that of 'pigeon' just generated around the 20th, and 'Paka' will follow the path of 'pigeon' and move westward along the south edge of the subtropical high. The deterministic numerical prediction model is basically the same for the 'Paka' path prediction, and the results of the ensemble prediction members do not show a huge degree of dispersion. The model predicts the path of 'Paka' more firmly than the previous' pigeon '.
Too! But I'm afraid! Typhoon "Pigeon" has caused serious impact on Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao, Guangxi, Yunnan and other places. Typhoon "Paka" No. 14 will land in South China, which is basically the same as "Pigeon". The harm is double superposition!
Strength of 'Paka'
Compared with the conditions of 'pigeon', the conditions of strength enhancement of 'Paka' after entering the South China Sea were slightly worse. However, from the satellite cloud image on the morning of the 25th, it can be clearly seen that there is a tropical cloud activity in the North Central Sea of the South China Sea, and the water vapor channel of the southwest monsoon has also been connected with 'Paka'. Therefore, it can be predicted that 'Paka' will merge with the tropical clouds in the South China Sea in the future, and form a typhoon with a larger body shape under the strong water vapor support. It should be no problem that the peak intensity reaches the typhoon level, and this peak intensity is likely to appear before landing near the shore.
Strong wind forecast
From 25th to 28th, the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, Bashi Strait, Guangdong coast, Hainan Island coast, Guangxi coast, Beibu Gulf and Qiongzhou Strait will have a gale of 7-9, the nearby sea areas and areas passing through the 'Paka' center will have a gale of 10-12 and a gust of 13-14.
From the 27th to the 29th, there will be heavy rain in southern Guangdong, southern Guangxi, Hainan Island, southern Yunnan and other places, and heavy rain in some areas; the accumulated rainfall will be 30-70mm, 100-180mm in some coastal areas, and more than 250mm in local areas.
In summary
1. The probability of Paka landing in the west of Guangdong is relatively high around the 27th;
2. 'Paka' is likely to reach its peak intensity before landing (currently expected to be at typhoon level);
3. 'Paka' will be of considerable size in the future, with a large influence range;
4. The central and western coastal areas of Guangdong Province have just been hit by a strong typhoon "Pigeon" and suffered heavy losses. The "Paka" was killed again four days later. The situation of disaster prevention and mitigation is grim.