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The richer, the less regular what the hell? The reasons behind Shandong people's favorite second bir

Last year, the state began to fully liberalize the two child policy, so many families also welcomed their own monkey babies this year. However, according to the research and survey, Shandong people like to have two children the most. However, the richer some provinces are, the less they want to have two children. However, the high cost of raising children now will also lead some young people not to want to have two children!

The 21st Century Economic Research Institute combed the birth rate of permanent residents published by the provincial statistical bureaus and found that after the implementation of the comprehensive two child policy in 2016, Shandong had the highest birth rate and the largest growth rate, with the birth rate reaching 17.89 & permil;, which was 5.34 thousand points higher than the previous year.

According to this, the willingness of Shandong's permanent population to have a second child in 2016 is the strongest in the country. In 2016, the proportion of two children born in Shandong was 63.3%, nearly 20 percentage points higher than the national average of 45%.

In 2016, the birth rate of permanent residents in Tianjin, Shanghai and Beijing increased by 1.53, 1.48 and 1.36 thousand points respectively compared with the previous year, ranking second to fourth in China.

It is found that after the implementation of the comprehensive two child policy in 2016, the birth rate of the provinces with high income of general residents has also increased rapidly. However, in areas with low income, the change of birth rate is not obvious. In many provinces, the birth rate of permanent residents has even declined.

However, in developed provinces, the birth rate is only rising rapidly, the overall birth rate is still behind, and the law of "the more developed the economy, the more sterile" still exists.

Shandong residents are most willing to have two children

In the first year of implementing the two child policy, the birth rate of Shandong's permanent population in 2016 reached 17.89 & permil;, an increase of 5.34 thousand points over the previous year. Shandong's birth rate is the highest in China.

In 2016, the birth rate of Shandong's permanent population exceeded the level of Tibet's 15.79 & permil. For many years, the fertility rate in Tibet and Xinjiang was around 15-17-permil, ranking first or second in the country all the year round. However, the birth rate of the second child in Tibet and Xinjiang was generally in line with the policy.

In 2016, the number of births in Shandong Province reached 1.77 million, an increase of 530000, or 42.7%. One child accounted for 34.2% of the total number of births, an increase of 15.7% year-on-year; two children accounted for 63.3%, an increase of 69.9%. Shandong has a small floating population and a low proportion of the net inflow population from other places. The second child is mainly the local registered population.

The number of migrants in Beijing and Shanghai decreased by 151000 and 14500 in 2016 compared with 2015. In 2016, the number of foreign permanent residents in Tianjin was 5.0754 million, a year-on-year increase of 71900, but the increase was significantly lower than 241700 in 2015. In 2016, Tianjin had a permanent population of 15.6212 million, an increase of 151700 over the end of last year, and more than 110000 new births in 2016. It can be concluded that Tianjin, like Beijing and Shanghai, is not due to the inflow of population.

According to the data of Beijing Municipal Commission of health and family planning, in 2016, the number of newborns in Beijing was 280000, an increase of 33% over 2015, and 30% were "two children". According to the Statistics Bureau of Shanghai, in 2016, 218400 permanent residents were born in Shanghai, an increase of 20% year on year.

In 2016, the birth rates of Tianjin, Shanghai and Beijing were 1.53, 1.48 and 1.36 thousand points higher than the previous year, respectively, ranking second to fourth in China.

In other areas, the birth rate of permanent residents increased rapidly in Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Hebei. In 2016, the birth rate of these areas increased by more than 1000 points, ranking fifth to eighth in China. In 2016, the new population of Hubei was 706500, an increase of 12.8% over the previous year. Considering the reduction of one child, the proportion of two children increased rapidly.

There are also many provinces where the birth rate of permanent residents is not affected by the comprehensive two child policy. For example, the birth rates of the permanent residents in Tibet and Hainan in 2016 were at the same level as the previous year. The birth rate of permanent residents in Hunan, Qinghai, Gansu, Guangxi, Xinjiang and Jilin in 2016 was even lower than that in 2015.

Compared with the data of the past decade, in addition to the continuous decline in the birth rate of Jilin's permanent population, the birth rate of other provinces in 2016 was almost the same as that of the past decade, which was relatively stable. Obviously, these provinces did not have a strong desire to have a second child.

It is worth noting that in 2016, there were only eight provinces with a birth rate growth of more than 1000 points compared with the previous year, while there were six provinces with a year-on-year negative growth.

What is the core of stimulating the birth of two children?

Although the birth rate of permanent residents in Shandong and other provinces has increased rapidly due to the comprehensive two child policy, it does not mean that the birth rate in these provinces will continue to increase significantly.

The number of women of childbearing age in China has dropped by more than 5 million every year, and that in Shandong Province has declined significantly. Take Jinan as an example. In 2015, 540000 women aged 25-35 had a strong fertility rate. In 2020, the fertility rate will drop to 440000, down by 20000 every year.

In fact, many of the provinces with the highest year-on-year growth rate of resident birth rate in 2016 are developed regions, that is, the provinces with the highest disposable income level in the country.

For example, in the four regions (Shandong, Tianjin, Shanghai and Beijing) where the birth rate of permanent residents increased the fastest in 2016, the residents' income level was very high in the first half of 2017. The per capita disposable income of residents in Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin is the first, second and fourth respectively, reaching 29900 yuan, 28500 yuan and 19700 yuan. Shandong also reached 13800 yuan, ranking ninth in the country.

In 2016, the year-on-year growth rate of the permanent population in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian, with high disposable income, also ranked first in China.

However, after the implementation of the comprehensive two child policy, most of the areas where the birth rate of the permanent population has not significantly increased or even decreased are places where the disposable income level of residents is relatively low, such as Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang, etc. However, it should also be noted that the effect of the comprehensive two child policy on encouraging childbearing in these areas is not obvious, and it is also related to the fact that there have been more two child births in these areas in the past (in line with the policy), and the actual fertility level in these areas is not low.

At the same time, the more developed regions are, the lower the birth rate is. Even if the birth rate increases significantly, the actual level of birth rate is relatively low.

In 2016, the comprehensive two child policy was implemented. In addition to Shandong, the birth rates of permanent residents in Tianjin, Shanghai and Beijing were 7.37 & permil;, 9 & permil;, and 9.32 & permil;, respectively, the fourth, fifth and seventh lowest in China. In Guangdong, Zhejiang and other places with developed economy and high income level, the birth rate of permanent residents in 2015 and 2016 was also lower in China.

Therefore, according to the comprehensive judgment, although residents in some developed provinces have strong desire to have two children in a short period of time, the growth rate of birth rate may soon decline after the birth accumulation period.

According to previous estimates by relevant departments of Beijing, the number of women of permanent childbearing age who are in line with the comprehensive two child policy and have a second child will increase by 2.36 million. It is estimated that between 2017 and 2021, a total of 580000 permanent births will be added, and the total annual birth population will reach 300000.

Fang Laiying, director of the Beijing Municipal Commission of health and family planning, said earlier this year that the Beijing Municipal Commission of health and family planning expected the baby boom to last another two years. In 2019, the birth peak is expected to fall.