Ren Zhiqiang talks with Zhang Weiying and other economists about the house price in 2018, saying that the regulation is wrong, and the house price will soar even higher! The wrong regulation means will make demand burst out in a period of time, so the next round will rise even higher than this one. So, what's going on in 2018 when Chongqing's house prices are about to plummet?
Ren Zhiqiang: he said that if the real estate collapsed, the house would be worth 10 million yuan, and the bank could lend you 5 million yuan, but suddenly the house was only worth 3 million yuan, and the 5 million yuan loaned to you by the bank would be collected, and the working capital of your factory would be gone. What should we do?
Ren Zhiqiang said that for the Chinese government, housing can only be a one-off investment, and there is no tax in the later stage. If we follow the international approach and focus on residence tax payment, the situation will change greatly. Because residence tax payment is the main method, residence can generate tax, which is a good thing for the local government. It will restrain the house price and prevent it from rising too high. But we are not. So the local government would rather give you a discount, but also want you to build more office buildings, because there are more taxes behind it. The wrong control measures will let the demand burst in a period of time, so the next round may be higher than this one.
Ren Zhiqiang said: in 2015, the land supply was negative 33%, and many cities had land shortages, including Shanghai and Beijing.
In 2016, the government's land supply continued to decline, with less than half of the land in some first tier cities in 2015. For example, Beijing's revenue from land transfer in 2016 was more than 80 billion yuan, compared with 1960 billion yuan in 2015. Last year it was only about 40% of the previous year.
The land starts in two years, so the negative growth of land supply in 2015 and 2016 will affect the future urban inventory.
Looking at the inventory of the first tier cities, we can see that the average inventory of the first tier cities is only about 6 months, which is far below the safety inventory standard of 12 months.
If the first tier cities no longer build houses, within six months, there will be no new houses in the market.
What is the relationship between the proportion of houses we are selling and the proportion of completed houses? The data given by Ren Zhiqiang is 1:2.12, what does that mean?
It's human nature to go up, or we will be extinct. Such plans against humanity are doomed to failure!
In the history of the world, it has been proved countless times that population restriction is not feasible.
As early as when Tokyo had a population of 12 million, it was determined to control the population just like Beijing, so we developed a satellite city in Tokyo, built a high-speed railway, and said that we could go to Osaka in half an hour. Let's go to Osaka to live.
As a result, the road was repaired. Instead of going to Osaka, all the people in Osaka came to Tokyo. How many people are there now? 37.5 million.
As long as the population is still pouring into the first tier cities, how can house prices not rise?
In 2010, China's property market became a watershed. In the market, Ren Zhiqiang published the theory that house prices will rise, and said: 'you'd better not be a fool, let go of your illusions.'
As a result, house prices soared in 2010. The national average is up 9.9%, while Beijing is up 42%.
In 2015, he again published the theory of soaring house prices: 'due to the purchase restriction policy, the land supply decreased in 2013 and 2014, and house prices will rise in 2015. '
When someone asked Ren Zhiqiang whether he should buy a house or not, he was obviously impatient with this old-fashioned question. He went back and said: 'it's been more than ten years, and he's still asking. Don't wait. Buy when you have money. 'it turns out that once again, he has become a proverb. In 2015, with the lifting of the purchase restriction policy, the first tier cities suddenly erupted like a long suppressed volcano. Among them, Shenzhen jumped 50%, and then Beijing and Shanghai rose in turn, and spread to second tier cities.
He confirmed this point mainly from two aspects of supply and demand:
1、 Supply side: land supply has declined for two consecutive years. 2. Demand side: the population of first tier cities will continue to soar