Who will be the 2018 World Cup champion
The 2018 World Cup is in full swing. As a four-year football event, it is a carnival of global fans. Fans from all over the world hope that their favorite team can get the world cup of Hercules. Who will be the top of the 2018 World Cup? Let's look at the 2018 World Cup championship forecast.
Under the leadership of Jim middot O'Neill, the former chief economist of Goldman Sachs, using economic tools to analyze the chances of winning teams before each world cup has gradually become a major event for investment banking to participate in the World Cup Carnival.
In 2018, there were several investment banks including Goldman Sachs, UBS, Nomura, ING Group, Commerzbank of Germany, Bank of Denmark, etc., using the quantitative analysis team to participate in the competition using the financial model. In a June 12 report, the New York Times said the investment banks used artificial intelligence (AI) technology, statistical models, portfolio theory and economic analysis.
The following are the 2018 World Cup winners predicted by the investment bank:
UBS forecast: Germany
On May 17, UBS released its first forecast for the 2018 World Cup.
The office of the chief investment officer of UBS wealth management (CIO) used econometric tools to assess investment opportunities to predict the World Cup winners this year. Simulation results show that Germany is the most likely to win the world cup, with a 24% chance of winning.
Brazil and Spain are also expected to win, with 19.8% and 16.1% respectively. The host country, Russia, has been placed in the weakest group and is expected to advance to the top 16, after which it may be defeated by Spain or Portugal.
Of course, UBS has not forgotten its job. On the economic level, Russia's estimated spending for the world cup is 0.7% of GDP, which may not significantly boost the country's economy, the agency said. However, compared with more developed economies such as Spain, Italy or France, the economic benefits of this world cup for host Russia may be greater.
Mark haefele, global chief investment officer of UBS wealth management, said: 'whether it's the global market or the analysis of football games, people tend to prefer the local market or local teams. The quantitative investment discipline that CIOs follow in financial market analysis helps overcome this local preference when building portfolios and predicting sporting events. '
Picture 1: UBS's prediction of winning probability of participating teams
Goldman Sachs forecast: Brazil
France, Brazil, Portugal and Germany will reach the semi-finals of the world cup, with Brazil beating Germany in the final, according to a Goldman Sachs report released on June 11.
In the report obtained by surging journalists, Goldman Sachs said that it used 200000 statistical models, used the latest development of 'machine learning', mined team characteristics and individual player data, and then simulated 1 million possible simulation games to evaluate the possibility of each team's progress in the game, so as to reach the conclusion that Brazil will win the Russian World Cup.
Based on these data, Brazil is the most likely team to win the world cup (18.5%). Followed by France (11.3%), Germany (10.7%) and Portugal (9.4%).
Goldman's main conclusions include:
&Middot; Brazil will beat Germany in the World Cup final on July 15 to win the sixth World Cup.
&Middot: although France is more likely to win than Germany, its bad luck is that it will meet Brazil in the semi-finals, and the team may not be strong enough to surpass Brazil.
&Middot; Germany will beat England in the quarter finals on July 7.
&Middot; Spain and Argentina are expected to underperform, losing to France and Portugal in the quarter finals, respectively.
&Middot: although Russia tries to use the traditional stimulus of organizing competitions, it is still unable to get out of the group competition.
Interestingly, in the 2014 Brazil World Cup, Goldman Sachs said that Brazil was 48.5% likely to win the championship, followed by Argentina, which was 14.1% likely to win the cup for the third time. But Brazil met Germany in the semi-finals and failed to reach the final 1-7.
Ing forecast: Spain
According to the New York Times, ing has adopted an unusual method of calculating the probability of success based on the market valuation and past performance of participating teams (here, the hypothetical value is highly correlated with success). The value of the team is based on the individual transfer value of the players and their record in the FIFA rankings.
The agency concluded that Spain would win the world championship, with a total value of about 1.04 billion euros for the Spanish team and 1.03 billion euros for the second place French team.
Nomura prediction: France
In its report to surging journalists, Nomura has set up a 'portfolio' for the world cup. 'instead of focusing on ranking based quantitative models, we have adopted a more qualitative bottom-up approach that takes into account the dynamics behind the team and analyzes each team in depth. 'Nomura pointed out in the report.
The agency offers' three hits': France, Brazil, Spain; 'three black horses': Poland, Uruguay, Denmark;' two potential stocks': Senegal and Peru.
For this' portfolio ', Nomura said:' just like building a portfolio, we want to build a diversified world cup portfolio with limited risk and perform well at all times. Not only did we look for the weak (relative to the rankings) who might surprise us, but we also looked at some of the safe haven options that we thought were most likely to win the world cup. So we tracked what could happen from the group stage to the final stage. '
The agency says the basic idea is to look at the team in terms of assets, so while analyzing recent results, it also considers the motivation behind the team (such as the change in rankings since the last World Cup) and the value distribution of each team. 'asset performance is usually judged by the rate of return, because we see the team as an asset rather than a rate of return, so we check the value of all the players in the team and make an implicit assumption about their distribution, that the team can play as well as the best players, or as bad as the worst players. '
"For the world cup champions, we forecast France, although we also think Spain, Brazil and Germany have a good chance to lift the trophy on July 15 at the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow. 'Nomura predicts that France, Spain and Brazil are most likely to make it to the semi-finals, and that France and Spain are likely to meet in the finals.
Forecast of Commerzbank: Germany
According to Bloomberg, economists at Commerzbank in Germany conducted an analytical study and found that Germany is most likely to win the world cup.
Economists from Commerzbank conducted a professional analysis on the possibility of winning the 2018 Russia world cup through statistical data analysis, massive data calculation and data modeling, and finally Germany was the most optimistic. According to the bank's data processing results, Germany leads Brazil (12.7%), Spain (9.6%) and Argentina (7.7%) by 18.3%.
Danske Bank Group forecast: Brazil
According to Bloomberg, dansk Bank of Denmark predicts that Brazil will have 17% chance to win the cup for the sixth time in Moscow. Argentina and Germany are 12% and Spain, France and Belgium are 7%.