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Will typhoon manis and aiyuni meet? Real time release system for typhoon route 5, 2018

On June 6, when typhoon aiyuni 4 was busy landing in Hainan, the embryo in the east of the Philippines was almost mature. Of course, as our meteorological department issued a warning, typhoon 5 will be generated in one day. At present, the embryo has developed into a 7-level tropical depression. According to the latest real-time system path analysis of typhoon path, will typhoon 5 meet with aiyuni? Let's analyze the future path of these two typhoons.

Latest news of typhoon 2018

Japan's Meteorological Agency yesterday (6) issued a strong wind warning (GW) in the afternoon, suggesting that tropical depression in the Philippine East Ocean will generate typhoon manis No. 5 this year in one day. The future of manis may be a turning typhoon, but where to turn is uncertain. Its development will also bring changes to the path of ayouni in the next few days.

According to the latest news from the Central Meteorological Observatory, the tropical depression was generated in the ocean east of the Philippines this morning (7 days). At 8 o'clock in the morning, its center is located about 910 kilometers east of Manila in the Philippines, that is, 15.0 degrees north latitude and 129.4 degrees east longitude. The maximum wind force near the center has 7 levels (15 meters / second), and the minimum pressure at the center is 100200 PA.

It is expected that the tropical depression will move northward at a speed of about 20 kilometers per hour, and its intensity will gradually increase, and it will become a tropical storm within 24 hours.

Latest news of typhoon 2018

So, will Typhoon No. 5 meet with "aiyuni" this year?

At present, typhoon aiyunni is about 75 kilometers away from Dianbai County, Maoming City, Guangdong Province. It is estimated that "aiyunni" will move to the north at the speed of 5-10 kilometers per hour, and will land again in the coastal area from Wuchuan to Yangjiang, Guangdong Province, from the afternoon of 7th to the night (tropical storm level, 18-23 meters / second, 8-9 level). After 9th, it will gradually turn to the east direction, and the intensity will slowly weaken.

We can see the embryo situation of manis. It is about 870 km east of Manila in the Philippines. The tropical depression will move northward at a speed of about 17 km / h. In the future, the route may be biased toward Japan, so it will not meet with AI Yunni. Moreover, if AI Yunni lands in Guangdong, he will go to Guangxi, and it is not certain whether he will end his life on the way.

Two typhoons in history

Reciprocal rotation:

1994 pat vs rose

2000 pebian vs Maria

The two cyclones have the same intensity in range, rotating around a center until one side weakens or leaves (if both are large cyclones, they will kill each other, if they are small and medium-sized, they may maintain the intensity). However, generally speaking, the time of typhoon's mutual rotation in the Northwest Pacific is not long, and it is easy to evolve into the situation of big swallow small or small follow big below.

Big swallow small:

The structure of the small cyclones will be destroyed by the circulation of the wind field in the west of the 2000 sammeton Baoxia typhoon, which will weaken and gradually eat it up.

&#Historical map of two typhoons

Small heel big:

1997 CASS and amber

2002 Phoenix and Aeolus

In 2012, the annexation of Libra and brawan failed to become such a result. After a circle of small cyclones, they are finally driven by the north high pressure, following the big pace.

Mutual exclusion:

1986 Wayne vs Vera

1991 Knight vs mirrell

The characteristics of this example are that the path of the smaller cyclones on the left is variable and slow, while the large cyclones on the right are moving northward due to the weakening of the subtropical high, resulting in mutual exclusion. After the end of Fujiwara, the small air whirl on the left began to be dominated by the middle or lower system in Central China and took its own way.