House price is now the most concerned issue of people, and has become the focus of the society. Over the years, the growth of house price has made the just in need group miserable. What's the trend of house price in 2018? Will house prices rise or fall in 2018-2019? Let's see what the experts say.
Will house prices skyrocket or plummet in 2018
The 25 bond business opportunity agencies have predicted the real estate trend in 2018, and compiled the consensus reached by these agencies, including policy, volume, house price, dividend, industry and other aspects.
Overall 2018, real estate market theme: a new starting point
The themes of 25 'real estate investment strategy 2018' reports are shown in the table below, among which the synonyms frequently appear are long-term mechanism, cycle, differentiation, leader and rent.
They outline the overall judgment of these research institutions for 2018, and the real estate market is entering a new stage:
In terms of regulation and control policies, the long-term mechanism of steady promotion is orderly promoted, because the urban policy implementation continues to maintain;
In terms of urban differentiation, it is the hot third and fourth tier cities' market decline in 2017, while the first and second tier cities may usher in a wave of small market;
In the industry competition, it is the Matthew effect. The gap between enterprises is widened, and the stronger is.
The main line of differential regulation remains unchanged
In 2017, the regulation of the real estate market has two major themes: due to the implementation of urban policies and long-term mechanism, it will continue in 2018.
In this round of regulation and control, the regulation and control of core cities has reached the strictest level in history, with limited purchase, loan, sale, price and land price at the same time, and limited space for tightening. If not, it doesn't mean that it will be relaxed, because the long-term mechanism of both leasing and sales is becoming a new idea. It is possible that the first tier cities will never see the day when the restrictions on purchase are lifted. However, the market of the third and fourth tier cities is not sustainable for a long time, and it is unlikely to change the current situation and adopt general and strict policies.
In the last year's forecast, we all felt that the volume of transactions in 2017 would definitely fall, and the range would not be small. As a result, the first-line and second-line transactions were frozen, but the third and fourth tier cities grew rapidly. In the first 11 months, the total transaction area increased by 7.9%
The main point of view of the real estate market volume in 2018 is "sing down". In the view of the bond business opportunity agencies, 2017's stimulus is not sustainable.
On the contrary, the demand of first tier and second tier cities has been suppressed for more than a year, and the demand reserve is relatively sufficient, which may be released in 2018. Don't expect too much of a fall in house prices.
In 2018, with regard to the prediction of house prices, the securities companies agreed that there would be an increase nationwide, but the range would not be large.
Ren Zeping: house prices will rise in revenge in 2019
Ren Zeping: the local government is in a hurry to regulate the house price. The regulation will be over in the second half of next year
Recently, at the '2017 wealth management and asset allocation summit internal Forum', chief economist Ren Zeping gave a 20 minute speech.
Although it's only 20 minutes, but because it's a closed door meeting, all of them are our core customers, so what should be said should not be said, all of them are delivered, it can be said that they are full of dry goods.
For the most concerned real estate issue, Ren Bo also gave his own conclusion: people who want to buy a house need not worry, as long as the land finance has not changed, at the end of the regulation, the local government is more anxious than anyone, and this round of regulation will end in the second half of next year. I'm worried that house prices will rise in retaliation again in 19 years.
Ren Bo said that at present, PPI (the price of industrial products out of the factory) continues to decline, which is expected to become a negative number in the first half of next year. Enterprises are under great pressure to survive. It is unrealistic to maintain such a high market interest rate, and monetary policy will be gradually relaxed.
In the future, our regulatory policy and monetary policy will be completely divided. The regulatory policy must be financial deleveraging, and will not stop until the goal is achieved; monetary policy is more focused on the macro fundamentals.
With the passage of time, in the second half of next year, the local government will be very anxious, and the central government has the pressure of stable growth. Once the restrictions on purchase and loan are released, the house price may usher in a retaliatory rise in 19 years.
In 2009, 12 years and 15-16 years, three times of steady growth stimulated the economy. When the house price was 50000 yuan in 15 years, I said it would double. Many people thought that the house price was too high to be possible. As a result, we all saw it.
It has to be said that Ren Bo's inference is really bold. At the moment when the central government adjusts the house price, it is determined that the regulation and control will end in the second half of 18 years, and the house price will explode in 19 years.
In the second half of 18 years, we will really open the purchase restriction. Will the house price rise in retaliation in 19 years?
Let me start with my conclusion that for some deep-seated reasons that can never be changed, our house prices will continue to rise 99% like the United States.
As for the long-term mechanism, it is said that the property tax can be changed?
In fact, there is not much difference between real estate tax and land finance. One is to sell land to earn tax, the other is to take tax from each house.
One hopes that the more expensive it is to sell, the better it is to have more houses.
In order for people to hold more houses, in addition to the immediate need to have more investment needs, we have to make money for people who buy houses.
The real estate tax is the monthly payment of real gold and silver, which can't be charged too high, but even if it receives 2%, it's really not worth mentioning compared with the annual currency depreciation.
The final result is that some of the less substantial demand for housing will decrease in the short term, and the long-term price will rise from 45 degrees to 28 degrees.
Houses will become a real and difficult gap. Although we have levied taxes on the rich, we have also accelerated class consolidation.
As for whether the second half of 2018 will be deregulated or not, it depends on whether only real estate can stimulate our economy and whether we can rely on others.
But what's the point of not letting go of regulation? As long as it is to stimulate the economy, don't say that capital spillover to real estate. Even if we strictly guard against it, we will sneak over.
It can only be said that this round of house price inflation after 2008 is the inevitable result of the economic downturn and the survival of the central mother.
Although it's unreasonable, and I don't know how long it will be absurd, this is the path of minimum resistance.