It is everyone's most simple wish and pursuit to provide for the elderly and medical care for the sick. Because of this, any agitation about pension has attracted much social attention. Today, Sihai net editor will talk with you about pension. Is pension deficit true?
This time, it was Zhou Yanli, former vice chairman of China Insurance Regulatory Commission, who gave a speech at 2017 Tsinghua Wudaokou financial forum. He said: it is estimated that in the next five to 10 years, China's pension gap will be about 8 trillion to 10 trillion yuan.
The gap or deficit of pension account is not a new topic. Before that, there were many versions: there was a saying that "the gap of pension personal account is at least 2 trillion", and there was a saying that "the gap of personal account is 4.7 trillion" issued by Tsinghua University recently, and now there is a saying that "the gap between 8 trillion and 10 trillion". This data has reached a height that was not before, and has attracted countless amounts of sunshine in an instant.
Objectively speaking, it is a kind of attitude to be responsible for the long-term and also a manifestation of anxiety to predict and predict the future payment ability of pension. However, because of the wide range of data, the people who are not sure what data is real are confused: if the deficit of pension account is so serious, can we still get pension when we are old? (this article is exclusively compiled by WYH, editor of sihai.com. If you need to reprint, please indicate the source and source. Related article link: http://www.4hw.com.cn/life/jiankang.html)
Is the pension gap between 8 trillion and 10 trillion exaggerated?
Although Zhou Yanli quoted the statistics of the academic department, it had a great influence after he published them. This is not the first time that officials or scholars have issued such a warning. For the invisible debt of pension, insiders and relevant departments have their own measurement and judgment.
According to a report released in April this year by the employment and social security research center of Tsinghua University, China's endowment insurance fund has experienced a funding gap of 4.7 trillion yuan in the current period, with individual accounts' empty accounts' and accumulated balances being used to 'guarantee and release'.
Yang Yansui, director of the employment and social security center of Tsinghua University, said that at present, the sustainability of the endowment insurance system is in a poor space. If the system is not adjusted as soon as possible, once the accumulated balance is exhausted, the endowment insurance fund will face the risk of collapse.
At the end of last year, Zheng Bingwen, director of the Institute of social insurance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote "China pension development report 2016", which also pointed out that in 2015, the accumulated book keeping amount of individual account of basic endowment insurance for urban employees (i.e. "empty account") reached 4714.4 billion yuan, while the accumulated balance of endowment insurance fund for urban employees in that year was only 3534.5 billion yuan, which indicated that the assets and liabilities of basic endowment insurance for urban employees were The gap between them is widening and it is expected that the accumulated fund balance will be exhausted in the near future. (this article is exclusively compiled by WYH, editor of sihai.com. If you need to reprint it, please indicate the source and source. Related article link: http://www.4hw.com.cn/life/jiankang.html)
But Yang Lixiong, deputy director of China Social Security Research Center of Renmin University of China, told China Economic Weekly, "many of the statements are alarmist, especially the pension gap will reach 8 trillion-10 trillion yuan. I don't know what method they used to calculate it, and how can the gap be so large? In fact, 10 years ago, there was the view that the pension gap expanded or even collapsed There was no collapse. At present, the pension personal account has a lot of balance. According to the balance figures of 2016 calculated by the Ministry of human resources and social security, 17 months' payment can be guaranteed. This fully shows that the current operation of endowment insurance is stable. '
On May 24, the head of the social insurance management center of the Ministry of human resources and social security replied through the website of the Ministry of human resources and social security that the operation of China's endowment insurance fund is generally stable. In 2016, the total income of the basic endowment insurance fund for employees was 3.51 trillion yuan, up 19.5% year on year, total expenditure was 3.19 trillion yuan, up 23.4% year on year, and the current balance was about 320 billion yuan The accumulated balance is 3.86 trillion yuan. From the perspective of the whole country, the endowment insurance fund still keeps receiving more than expenditure, and the accumulated balance of the fund continues to increase, which ensures that the endowment insurance treatment of the national employees is paid in full and on time. (this article is exclusively compiled by WYH, editor of sihai.com. If you need to reprint it, please indicate the source and source. Related article link: http://www.4hw.com.cn/life/jiankang.html)
Not only in 2016, but also in the first quarter of this year. According to the person in charge of the social insurance management center of the Ministry of human resources and social security, in the first quarter of 2017, the operation of the endowment insurance fund started smoothly and was generally good. In the first quarter, the total income of the fund was 978.8 billion yuan, an increase of 25.4% year-on-year, and the fund expenditure was 808.5 billion yuan, an increase of 22.9% year-on-year. The overall income of the fund continued to exceed the expenditure. The current balance exceeded 160 billion yuan, and the accumulated balance exceeded 4 trillion yuan.
Based on the above data, Yang Lixiong is more optimistic. He told China Economic Weekly that there is no gap in pension now. There may be a gap in 50 years, but it may be solved in 20 or 30 years, and the gap in pension will not be so serious. 'because now we use the designed parameters to measure the future pension gap in a static way. These parameters are fixed, and they are based on a couple having only one child. Now we have two children, which is totally different from before. Therefore, the future pension gap will not be as serious as the announced 8-10 trillion yuan. '