4hw.com.cn: Recently, a new round of oil product price adjustment window opened on April 26. Affected by the recent rise in international oil prices, it is a foregone conclusion that the price of domestic finished products will rise three times in a row. According to the change rate of package crude oil price in this pricing cycle, the price increase may be the highest since 2018, and the retail price limit of gasoline will return to the era of 7 yuan.
Recently, supported by the background of geopolitical risks, and with a relatively good supply and demand news, international oil prices continued to rise slowly. Brent crude oil price and New York light crude oil price rose to their highs since the end of 2014 this week, reaching $75 and $70 per barrel respectively.
According to the calculation of Zhuo Chuang information, the reference crude oil change rate of the 10th working day in China was 5.77% on April 26, corresponding to the increase of 255 yuan / ton of gasoline and diesel oil, equivalent to 92 × gasoline 0.20 yuan / liter, 0 × diesel 0.21 yuan / liter. The change rate monitored by jinlianchuang is 5.74%, corresponding to an increase of about 245 yuan / ton in the price of gasoline and diesel.
"This round of oil price hike will refresh the biggest increase since this year. "Zhang Na, an analyst with Zhuo Chuang information, said that after this round of policy hike, the retail price limit of domestic gasoline may break through 7 yuan / litre. If we take a small private car that runs 2000 kilometers a month and consumes 10 liters of fuel per hundred kilometers as an example, the cost of fuel consumption will increase by about 15.2 yuan within half a month before the opening of the next price adjustment window (i.e. 24:00 on May 11, 2018). Near the May Day holiday, consumers are traveling more and the travel cost is facing a certain increase.
Xu Peng, an analyst with jinlianchuang, also believes that the window for the increase will open on April 26. It is expected that the retail price of gasoline and diesel will be increased by 260 yuan and 250 yuan / ton respectively, which will be about 0.20 yuan for gasoline and 0 yuan for diesel. According to the estimated increase of 20 cents for each increase in gasoline price, excluding the northwest region with low oil price and the southwest region with high oil price, the retail price limit of 92 × gasoline in most provinces and cities in China will rise to 7.08-7.15 yuan / litre. Take Shandong Province, where the oil price is in the middle level, for example, the retail price limit of 92 × gasoline will be as high as 7.11 yuan / liter, which will set a new high in nearly three and a half years since November 2014, and the welfare of low oil price has basically disappeared. For the logistics industry, according to the range of 0 × 0.21 yuan per litre of diesel, a diesel car running 10000 kilometers per month and consuming 40 liters per 100 kilometers will cost about 420 yuan more in the next price adjustment window period.