There has been a folk 'rumor': 'life doesn't enter Evergrande, death doesn't enter Vanke, life and death don't enter country garden'. Three big real estate enterprises are listed on the list. How can real estate enterprises survive under such pressure? Thanks to the real estate industry's strong sense of pressure and anxiety. Country garden word eye-catching, what is the real estate industry anxious about? What is the future of China's property market?
1、 What does the anxiety of Country Garden Show
From April 5 to 11, country garden issued three consecutive documents in a week - "emergency notice on improving turnover speed and quality supply", hoping to further improve turnover speed.
The screenshot of the widely circulated document above tells us that country garden hopes to start construction on the day of land acquisition. If the construction starts more than 40 days later, the 'Project Manager' will be removed. The document even requires that the Design Institute, after receiving the marketing customer configuration and design requirements, make a drawing within the same day.
Previously, media reported that Yang Guoqiang, chairman of the board of directors of country garden, once said: 'the land must be started within three months and the funds can be recovered in the fifth month. Such speed can't be achieved by others. Yang Guoqiang can. '
Obviously, the latest documents of country garden hope to continue to greatly improve the turnover rate, and even hope to start construction on the day when the land is acquired.
For the latest documents of country garden, the real estate circle is full of uproar: those who question the feasibility and those who worry about the quality of the project. In a word, it has become an opportunity for the real estate self media to brush the sense of existence and carnival.
Let me analyze the meaning of country garden documents and what ordinary buyers should read from them.
Country garden is the "king of the three, four and five tier cities", and one of the biggest beneficiaries of this wave of destocking. The real estate logic of the third, fourth and fifth tier cities is totally different from that of the first and second tier cities.
In many small and medium-sized cities, especially the fourth and fifth tier cities, the arrival of country garden is an event the whole city is looking forward to. Not only the government attaches great importance to it, but the general public is also proud of it. Therefore, it is possible for country garden to apply for the relevant license quickly after obtaining the land; in addition, the threshold setting for pre-sale of real estate in small and medium-sized cities is relatively low. All these have created conditions for country garden to achieve 'high turnover'.
The purchasing power of small and medium-sized cities is limited, especially in the fourth and fifth tier cities. When a large developer comes in to carry out a large project, it is like a high-efficiency harvester coming in the wheat field. Once this kind of city is harvested once, it will take a long time to grow wheat again. Unlike in big cities, buyers are like leeks, growing rapidly in succession.
Therefore, the first anxiety of boss Yang of country garden is the limited purchasing power from small and medium-sized cities. If you slow down, the limited 'wheat' will be harvested by others!
The second worry is about changes in policy and economic situation.
The real estate policy is the fastest-changing policy in China, including purchase restriction, price restriction, sales restriction, three price integration, interest rate rising and so on. These things are released at any time and may disappear at any time, which is basically unexpected to you.
Now the only expectation is that after a wave of strong monetary reform, the "golden time window" of the third, fourth and fifth tier real estate market is gradually closing, interest rate rise is a high probability event, and small and medium-sized cities are almost reaped.
China's real estate industry still has 10 years of silver, but the third, fourth and fifth tier cities still have a few years, which is hard to say. Because the provincial capital cities are in full swing, perhaps five years later, the vast majority of the population in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities (urban areas) will stop growing, or even begin to decline.
As a developer with the most land reserves in small and medium-sized cities, country garden certainly has the most reason to be anxious. Real estate is a highly leveraged industry with huge risks. It seems that you are still in high spirits today, but you may lose face in half a year. Are there few such examples?
Small and medium-sized cities lack of population competitiveness, which is the first crisis of China's real estate that this paper would like to remind you.
Although these cities are booming at present, their future may be very bleak. Prefecture level cities are better. It's hard to say at County, county and city level. It's highly probable to lose 'real inflation' for a long time in the future (unless it's within the effective radius of the core metropolitan area). As the "God" and "king of heaven" of these cities, country garden has entered the anxious period ahead of time, which is worthy of vigilance.
2、 Vanke ignites the anxiety of white-collar workers in big cities
In the past two days, a lot of media reported the news of Vanke's "Emerald academy" in Beijing. As one of the first batch of self owned rental housing projects in Beijing, 'Emerald College' announced a long-term rental plan.
According to this plan, the monthly rent of three bedrooms of 90 ㎡ ranges from 15000 to 18000, and the monthly rent of multiple four bedrooms of more than 180 ㎡ ranges from 30000 to 40000. The developer encourages long-term rent, which can be rented for up to 10 years. The rent is the same during the period, but the whole rent needs to be paid in one time.
If we rent a set of three bedrooms with an area of 90 ㎡, the rent for 10 years will reach 1.8 million based on the monthly rent of 15000; if we rent 18000, the rent for 10 years will be 2.16 million. If you rent a set of four bedrooms with an area of 180 ㎡, the rent will reach 3.6 million yuan in 10 years according to the monthly rent of 30000 yuan!
According to reports, Vanke's project is highly positioned, with fine decoration, central air conditioning, fresh air system, house wide water purification system and smart home products. The monthly rent of the common houses with the same location and apartment type (about 90 ㎡) nearby is about 6000 yuan.
As for the rent standard announced by Vanke, we media have used 'the renters cry! 'to express the shock.
I guess that Vanke's one-time 10-year rental sales plan can be financed from the bank. There is a gambling agreement implied in this: Vanke thinks that the rent of houses in Beijing will rise sharply in the future. It's certainly expensive for you to pay 15000 to 18000 yuan per month for 90 square meters of houses, but it will be flat in five years, and you will earn in the last two or three years.
This is similar to the "take or pay" in international energy transactions. The market is unpredictable, but both parties want the risk to be locked in ahead of time. If there is serious inflation in the future, renters will definitely make money, and Vanke will lose; if the country really keeps M2 growth below 1.5 times the growth rate of 'real GDP' for 10 years, and keeps the real annual interest rate of housing loan above 6.5% (equivalent to the current benchmark interest rate rising by 33%), then renters will definitely lose money, and Vanke will make money.
Of course, Vanke can avoid risks by introducing banks, allowing buyers to pay for loans and cash out 10-year rent in one time, speeding up capital turnover, and finally make money! In this way, the gambling parties become renters and banks.
Anyway, the pricing of Vanke project has aroused the anxiety of white-collar workers in big cities: can they afford to rent a house in the future? It used to be a loan to buy a house. Would you like to rent a house later?
Two days ago, Guan Qingyou, President of the Financial Research Institute, said in Boao Forum such a thought-provoking remark: if you can't afford a house, you can buy two more sets! Otherwise, you can't afford it any more. You have to borrow money to buy it.
At this point, it leads to the second critical situation of China's real estate market: the house prices in big cities may be out of control again at any time because of the continuous influx of population and capital.
To summarize:
1. This wave of the third, fourth and fifth tier real estate market soared, which was directly stimulated by the state through printing money. The way is that the central bank provides PSL (mortgage supplementary loan) with ultra-low interest rate to policy banks. The policy banks lend money to the governments of small and medium-sized cities, to the developers of the housing reform, and to carry out the monetary housing reform (house demolition, money payment, let you buy a house). This way of printing money to the third, fourth and fifth tier real estate market is very difficult to use again in the future, because the population cake that can be cut by the third, fourth and fifth tier real estate market in the future is basically gone, at least not in five years.
Therefore, most of the third, fourth and fifth tier cities will enter a period of 'demand recession'. The anxiety of country garden comes from here.
2. As big cities other than Beijing and Shanghai have entered the era of robbing people in an all-round way, the population will accelerate to concentrate in municipalities directly under the central government, provincial capitals, cities specifically designated in the plan, and special zones. These high-level and privileged cities, once again, have swarmed into a significant increase in population, and house prices may rise out of control at any time.
Two days ago, Qiu Baoxing, a former Vice Minister of the Ministry of construction, said that China had enough houses to live in. In fact, this does not make any sense. The problem in China is the mismatch of people and houses. You have a house and a big yard in the mountainous area of Sichuan, but you can't use it in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Can you transport the house to the Pearl River Delta? This is the reality of China.
So there are two kinds of anxieties - population loss areas, where houses will increasingly struggle to beat real inflation. The price of housing in the area of population influx is rising higher and higher. It used to be a loan to buy a house and then a loan to rent a house.