4hw.com.cn: Recently, news from US President trump has stirred the global market. Overnight (April 9), oil prices rose as news of US sanctions against Russia rose. At present, whether the driving force of oil price rise can continue to haunt people. On the other hand, with the introduction of China's crude oil futures, whether the US dollar's hegemony will be seriously threatened is also a focus of attention.
The trend of crude oil price in terms of Technology
With the trend of prices showing bear market bat shape, coupled with MACD and the Bollinger belt showing signs of decline, the crude oil price temporarily tends to decline in the middle line. Because crude oil price fluctuation is linked with the base surface, the first support range is 60-61 US dollars, and it is possible to turn up if it does not break down.
The trend of crude oil price based on Fundamentals
According to the International Energy Agency, the global oil demand will grow strongly in the next five years, while the oil production of non OPEC oil producing countries will increase significantly in the next five years, especially in the United States, Brazil, Canada and Norway. Although OPEC suggests that the prolonged production reduction will continue to increase the driving force of oil price increase, it will be offset by the increase of production in non OPEC oil producing countries or the increase of driving force for the prolonged production reduction of OPEC. It is unlikely that the international oil price will rise sharply in the next five years, and it is expected to remain at about $55-70 per barrel.
Will US dollar hegemony be seriously threatened?
The trade war is in full swing, and China is also fighting against the pillars of the US economy. For example, 'oil dollars'. After the launch of crude oil futures in China, RMB payment pilot project was launched. China's crude oil futures are well selected. The target medium sulfur crude oil is a representative import oil in the Asian market, accounting for 44% of the world's crude oil production, but complementary to WTI and Brent crude oil futures. Some overseas investors are worried about the prospect of China's crude oil futures becoming a regional price maker. In the short to medium term, it is difficult to see China's crude oil futures as the main driver of oil prices. But in the long run, with the optimization and change of relevant policies, it will certainly become the main driving factor of oil price, thus enhancing the attraction of overseas investors.