"As soon as the owner calls, 5.9 million can be sold." Intermediary Xiao Wu said that as long as you buy sincerely, the price can be discussed again. Twenty minutes ago, the offer was 5.98 million. But an instant drop of 80000 is not the bottom line. This two bedroom apartment in Chaoyang District, Beijing has reduced its price by 1.7 million in the past two months.
In Xiao Wu's impression, when the market was low in the past, the house prices of small houses were still relatively strong. But now, from the popular community in Wangjing to Dawang Road, which just needs to gather, it is not an isolated case that the number of second-hand houses has dropped by one million. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, in October this year, the price reduction ratio of second-hand house owners in Beijing reached 91.6%, which was' 3 & middot '; 17. The highest value since the new deal.
The psychological expectations of both buyers and sellers have changed, buyers hesitate, and owners feel anxious. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the sales price of second-hand houses in first tier cities increased by 0.2% month on month in November, but decreased by 0.4% month on month in Beijing, which has fallen for five consecutive months.
'at present, various regulatory policies remain stable, and the demand for first-time home purchase and improved house change has no heating power; In addition, there is a large phased supply of new houses, especially the competition limited houses form a competitive relationship with the second-hand housing market. It is difficult for the market to recover without increasing demand. " Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes that.
Two years after the regulation was implemented, the Beijing property market is still in a long period of self-healing.
Continuous cooling
In December, Beijing entered a severe winter. Xiao Wu stood at the door of the store early to wait for customers to see the house. At the age of 19, Xiao Wu has been a real estate agent in Beijing for 16 years. He has witnessed Beijing's property market move towards fanaticism step by step, and also experienced the sudden stop of the market after regulation. The last month is his busiest time this year.
'help customers sign a house of 4.48 million on December 8 and a house of 3.03 million on December 15 & hellip& hellip;' Looking at the work record, a brief moment of relief appeared on his face. Xiao Wu's area is the largest Chaoyang District in Beijing, with a permanent resident population of 3.605 million last year. It is also the place with the most dense potential buyers.
But anxiety is still hard to hide. Xiao Wu smokes one by one during the interval of watching the house with customers. " It's too cold and stressful. You see, I have white hair. " In fact, for him, the recent performance has been the best of the year. If you don't have these orders, you may not be able to pass the year. Other clerks can only open an order in three or four months.
"Before the regulation, the house didn't worry about selling. The listing was hung up and everyone robbed it. When we showed it, we couldn't even find the key." Xiao Wu sighed that in the past, he had no time at all. Like now, he took customers to see four houses in one afternoon.
I love my family (4.280,0.02,0.47%) Research Institute data show that the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Beijing in November was 54338 yuan / m2, down 0.83% month on month in October and 1.69% year-on-year in November, the lowest since March this year. The overall price level in recent March returned to the beginning of the year.
Among the administrative regions with large trading volume in the month, the average transaction price in Xicheng District increased by 2.81% month on month, and that in Shunyi district increased by 1.83% month on month. In addition, the other nine districts fell month on month, and Shijingshan, Tongzhou, Daxing and Changping all fell by more than 5%. The downward trend of second-hand house prices in the city is obvious.
In this game between the buyer and the seller, the psychological defense line of the owner is also declining. According to the monitoring data of transaction houses in Beijing wheat field, the overall bargaining range of the buyer in November was - 6.9%, down 1 percentage point from last month, and the bargaining space of customers reached the highest level since 2017.
Apart from the substantial increase in bargaining space, his own experience of selling a house made him feel a lot. " On one occasion, the houses on hand could be sold at 2.7 million. I wanted to wait, but later it shrank to 1.7 million. That kind of psychological gap is very difficult to bear. " Li Hua, a senior buyer, admitted that once he saw that the transaction became difficult, his anxiety quickly doubled because he couldn't afford the risk of asset loss.
Just need to load in
Five years ago, the national property market warmed up, and the house prices in Beijing, which is on the front line, almost doubled. However, the turning point is coming soon. On March 17, 2017, the regulation was implemented, and the "house and loan recognition" pushed the purchase threshold straight up, and countless speculators were rejected. Since then, second-hand housing in Beijing has fallen for nine consecutive months, with a cumulative decline of 13.5%; In 2018, the annual average price still fell by 3.3% year-on-year.
Investment demand has declined significantly. " Once, the higher the house price, the more investment space there was. As soon as a new dish was opened, three or five friends went to see it together. But now, it's hard to arouse the fanatical desire to buy a house. " Li Hua said.
What's more, they are eager to get tickets to the city.
After drifting North for seven years, Wang Lan finally took root in Beijing this year. After giving birth to the baby at the end of February, she began to discuss the house with her husband. " Raising children costs a lot. If you don't start, you can't save the down payment in the future. " But when she really looked at the house, she found that the house in the urban area was too expensive to afford. Parking in the old community is a problem, and the quality of life is difficult to guarantee. Finally, they chose to settle down in Tongzhou outside the Fifth Ring Road.
Investment customers solve the problem. Wang Lan's rigid demand is becoming the main driving force to support the market. I love my family statistics show that the proportion of customers who chose 'first-time purchase' in November reached 74.97%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points over October. After a brief narrowing in October, this proportion climbed to a new high since statistics in November, and rigid demand is still the main force in the market.
When the second-hand housing is also 'price for quantity', the just needed admission also has a short pull on the transaction. According to the statistics of Beijing Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development, a total of 11203 second-hand houses in Beijing were signed online in November, an increase of 2324 compared with 8879 second-hand houses in Beijing in October, up 26.2% month on month and 32.1% year-on-year.
I love my Research Institute believes that the long-term transaction downturn and price decline have accumulated a lot of potential demand in Beijing's second-hand housing market. After a period of wait-and-see, coupled with the recent partial and slight loosening of regulatory policies in Nanjing, Shenzhen and other places, the market willingness of these demands has increased, and the market activity has rebounded slightly.
"However, Beijing's property market regulation is still a high-pressure situation, and there is little possibility of loosening. The effective demand for house purchase in the market is still based on rigid demand, and there is little room for house prices to rise." The above institutions believe that.
New houses and second-hand houses continue to stick together
In addition to the game between the buyer and the seller and the market, the continuous low temperature of second-hand houses in Beijing is closely related to the admission of a large number of competing houses in recent years.
At the end of 2017, Beijing began to sell the plots of limited competition housing on a large scale, and relevant projects began to enter the market in 2018. Centaline data show that in the past two years, limited competition housing accounted for 70% of the supply in Beijing market. Daxing, Fengtai, Fangshan and Changping are the key areas of supply.
Because the house price is limited in the land transfer stage, the sales price of limited competition houses is usually lower than the market level in the same region, so it forms a great diversion to the second-hand housing market.
But this does not mean that limited competition housing is popular in the market. Due to the large supply and relative concentration of regions, the overall digestion of limited competition housing in Beijing is not good.
Centaline pointed out that as of the end of November this year, the cumulative supply of limited competing houses in Beijing was 54000, the online signing scale was about 23000, and the overall de conversion rate was only about 43%. The inventory scale exceeded 30000 sets for the first time. Among them, in Fangshan District, where the supply is relatively concentrated, the decontamination rate of limited competition houses is 22.7%, which is only about half of that of the whole city.
Up to now, the inventory of commercial housing in Beijing has reached 75600 units, the highest in recent 8 years. In addition, the total number of contracts for limited competition houses in Beijing is 23400, and the inventory is as high as 31000, which also sets a new historical record.
China Index Research Institute believes that since the second half of 2018, houses with common property rights and limited competition have ushered in the market peak, gradually occupy an important position in market supply and demand, and quickly improve the effective supply of the market. However, some regional projects are pushed into the market, the product homogenization is serious, the market is obviously in a state of oversupply, and there are great challenges among real estate enterprises.
Moreover, the above-mentioned institutions said that 80% of the projects entering the market have lost money or will face losses.
The cluster supply and decontamination are poor, and the adhesion between limited competition houses and second-hand houses will not end in the short term. " Limited competition housing diverts the demand for second-hand housing, which will continue next year. Especially in the areas where the supply of limited competition houses is concentrated, the transaction volume and transaction price of second-hand houses will continue to be affected. " Guo Yi thinks.
I love my research institute said that at present, the regulation of Beijing's real estate market is the largest in history. In addition, since the fourth quarter of this year, there have been many fine adjustments in local regulation, so there is little room for further policy overweight in the future. However, Beijing is still the benchmark of the national property market. Under the strategy of "housing, housing and non speculation", it is difficult to loosen the policy. It is expected that the Beijing property market policy will remain stable in 2020.
Under the tight policy and market wait-and-see, real estate Beijing is still a heavy urban ticket.