Original title: pork prices more than doubled year-on-year. In October, CPI rose 3.8%, a new high in more than seven years
On October 9, the national consumer price index (CPI) was released, up 3.8% year-on-year, a new high in more than seven years. Among them, the price of pork has more than doubled year-on-year, which has become the main factor driving the expansion of price increase.
CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year
In October, CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month. The increase reached a new high since February 2012.
Shen Yun, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, analyzed that in food, pork prices continued to rise in October, while the prices of beef, mutton, chicken, duck and eggs increased; The price of fresh vegetables continued to decline, and the price of fresh fruits changed from rise to fall. In non food, the prices of medical care, education, culture and entertainment and clothing have increased, while the prices of transportation and communication have decreased.
Specific data show that food prices rose by 15.5%, affecting the CPI rise by about 3.05 percentage points; Non food prices rose by 0.9%, affecting the CPI rise by about 0.70 percentage points.
"Among food prices, pork prices rose 101.3% year-on-year, affecting CPI growth by about 2.43 percentage points, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the total year-on-year increase in CPI." Shen Yun pointed out.
Pork prices more than doubled year-on-year
During the price movement in October, pork prices rose significantly, which became an important factor affecting the increase and change of CPI food prices.
According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, from October 25 to October 31, the average wholesale price of pork was 51.77 yuan per kilogram, up 7.4% month on month and 165% year-on-year.
Since March this year, affected by the tight supply of pork, pork prices have increased year-on-year. Many people are concerned about how long this wave of pork price rise will last?
According to Wei Baigang, director of the development planning department of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, on October 25, relevant departments of the State Council have issued 17 targeted policies and measures with high gold content, and 24 provinces have successively issued measures to promote pig production.
"The pig stocks in Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong and other 12 provinces increased or remained flat month on month, the factors for the recovery of production increased significantly, and the pig production as a whole entered a turning period of stopping the decline and recovery. According to this trend, the production capacity of raw pigs is expected to bottom out before the end of the year and return to normal next year. " Wei Baigang said.
"Through correlation analysis, the stock of fertile sows was four quarters ahead of the pig price." China Merchants Securities pointed out that it is speculated that this round of pig price rise will continue until September 2020, and the steepest stage may occur from November 2019 to February 2020, followed by near June 2020.
It is worth noting that, according to the monitoring of the price information system of the national agricultural products wholesale market, although the average wholesale price of pork continued to rise in October, the increase narrowed in late October.
Will CPI increase by more than 4% in the future?
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, from November 1 to November 7, the average wholesale price of pork increased slightly to 0.7%, and the increase narrowed sharply. The average price of 19 kinds of vegetables decreased, the price of eggs increased, and the average price of 5 kinds of fruits monitored maintained a downward trend month on month.
Driven by the rise in pork prices, will the CPI increase in the next month 'break 4'?
"Judging from the current situation, it is expected that the CPI will remain at about 3.8% in November and there will be no & lsquo; Broken 4 & rsquo; In the fourth quarter, CPI should also be below 4% Cao Heping, a professor at the school of economics of Peking University, told chinanews.com.
However, Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, pointed out that pork prices rose strongly in October. In addition, the year-on-year bottom of sow stocks is still not seen, and the CPI may exceed 4% year-on-year as soon as November.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first October, CPI increased by 2.6% over the same period last year. Will the annual CPI increase exceed the expected regulation target of 3%?
"Considering the CPI performance at the beginning of the year, the annual CPI increase should be within the control target." Cao Heping said. (end)