Original title: the price of new garlic has climbed to a three-year high, and garlic merchants are still reluctant to sell it?
Garlic, are you cruel? New garlic prices take a 'roller coaster'! Climb to a three-year high, garlic merchants are still reluctant to sell? But let them catch the good time
In June this year, the price of new garlic after listing experienced a roller coaster market, rising first and then falling. Since the end of September, garlic prices have risen all the way.
So, why did this condiment, which is indispensable at the dinner table, experience such ups and downs? CCTV financial reporters conducted investigations in Beijing, Shandong and other places.
Garlic prices rise and wholesaler shipments slow
In Beijing Xinfadi agricultural products wholesale market, the garlic trading area on the weekend morning was somewhat deserted, with only some scattered people coming to buy garlic.
Garlic buyer: now the best is 5 yuan and 15 cents per kilogram, and the cheaper is 4 yuan and 20 cents. I feel a little higher than the previous month.
Zhang Peng has been doing garlic business for nine years. He said that the current garlic price is seven or eight cents higher than that at the end of September. Recently, Zhang Peng's garlic trading volume is much less than before.
Zhang Peng, a garlic dealer in Beijing Xinfadi agricultural products wholesale market: a car sells for seven or eight days, eight or nine days. Now the sales are more than half slower than before.
Data show that the average price of ordinary garlic per kilogram in Beijing Xinfadi agricultural products wholesale market on November 4 was 4.2 yuan, up 13.51% from 3.7 yuan on September 28. The main reason for the price rise in the terminal market is the rise in the price of origin.
In the garlic trading market in Jinxiang, Shandong, the main garlic producing area, many traders gather every morning to inquire about the latest garlic market. Xiao Guojing, who has been engaged in garlic trade for many years, is one of them. After a brief communication with the seller here, he will go to the cold storage where the trader stores new garlic.
Xiao Guojing said that since the end of September, the price of garlic in Jinxiang has continued to rise. Now, the price of new garlic in cold storage has increased by nearly one yuan per kilogram compared with that in September. Now the cold storage garlic with one price a day also makes both buyers and sellers in a wait-and-see situation.
Data show that the price of new garlic in Jinxiang cold storage at the end of October was 3.75 yuan / kg, up about 35% from about 2.8 yuan / kg at the end of September, up nearly 200% from the same period last year, reaching a new high in recent three years.
Depositors are reluctant to sell at a loss, and reduced supply pushes up garlic prices
CCTV financial reporter learned in the interview that the main reason for this round of garlic price rise is that garlic merchants in the origin are reluctant to sell and the supply is reduced. So why don't garlic traders be willing to sell garlic?
In the cold storage of Han dexuan company, 750 tons of new garlic newly purchased in July this year was stored. At that time, the purchase price of this batch of new garlic was about 3 yuan and 70 cents per kilogram. Now, with storage and other expenses, it can not be sold at the cost price.
Han dexuan, general manager of Shandong Jinxiang Tianhong Trading Co., Ltd.: now the general price of this kind of goods is about 3.7 yuan per kilogram, as well as inventory fees and losses. Now the cost price is more than 4 yuan per kilogram. If you sell it now, you will lose at least 1000 yuan per ton. You don't want to sell it. You want to wait and see.
In Jinxiang, there are not a few garlic traders like Han dexuan who do not sell because of high cost and loss, and the reason why traders lose money is mainly affected by the market of new garlic this year.
It is understood that due to the reduction of planting area, the market expectation for the price of new garlic this year is high. After the weighing of new garlic in early June, the price reached 3.7 yuan per kilogram, and then rose to 4.48 yuan per kilogram under the influence of chasing up sentiment.
However, by the end of June, because the actual total output was higher than expected, the price of new garlic began to fall, and it had fallen to 2.45 yuan per kilogram by September. It is this roller coaster market that makes depositors generally lose money and reluctant to sell, which also directly leads to the reduction of the supply of new garlic in the market.
In addition to the reduction of supply and the increase of export volume, it is also one of the reasons for this round of garlic price rise. In a garlic processing enterprise in Jinxiang, a batch of new garlic to be sent to Indonesia is being processed nervously.
Wang Jinhai, general manager of Shandong Jinxiang Hongteng fruit and vegetable Co., Ltd.: yesterday, our company loaded 40 containers, more than 1000 tons, and today, more than 600 tons. The export volume in October increased by 30% compared with that in September, mainly concentrated in Indonesia.
Wang Jinhai introduced that on October 9 and 22, Indonesia's export quotas of 40000 tons and 115000 tons of garlic were decentralized, and the export demand of Chinese processing enterprises increased immediately. Although Indonesia's export quota will be decentralized every year, and the total amount this year is far less than the 240000 tons from October to December last year, it directly stimulated the rise of new garlic prices in October.
The trading volume of aged garlic increased and the short-term garlic price remained stable
The recent rise in garlic prices can be said to be a normal reflection of market supply and demand. In the investigation, CCTV financial reporter also found that due to the rise in the price of new garlic, the old garlic left last year caught up with the good opportunity, which not only increased the trading volume, but also played a certain supporting role in stabilizing the garlic price. In a garlic trading company in Jinxiang, Shandong Province, two trucks to be sent to Hunan and Guangdong are loading. This batch of garlic completed the transaction is the new garlic produced in 2018. At present, because the price of old garlic is about 80 cents lower than that of new garlic, the trading volume has increased a lot compared with previous years.
Zhang Mingshuo, manager of Wenying Agricultural Trade Co., Ltd. in Jinxiang County, Shandong Province: opening this warehouse is more than 700 tons, which is basically sold out in three days. The trading volume is about 30% more than that in the same period of previous years.
Jinxiang's garlic is generally sold out in the same year. Last year, because of the large output and large warehousing, coupled with the optimistic price of new garlic this year, many depositors did not sell in the same year, but began to focus on taking goods in the near future.
Zhang Mingshuo, manager of Wenying Agricultural Trade Co., Ltd. in Jinxiang County, Shandong Province: the old garlic is the original product received in 18 years. The purchase price is about 8 cents per kilogram. Plus the cost and storage fee, it is generally a little more than 1 yuan per kilogram. What I sell now ranges from 2.6 cents to 2.8 cents per kilogram. The profit is quite considerable.
According to analysts, as of June before the listing of new garlic, the garlic inventory in 2018 was still about 1 million tons, an increase of 100% year-on-year. Therefore, while bringing profits to the depositors, old garlic also supported the market supply in the short term.
Indonesia's garlic export quota will basically be digested before December, which does not have a strong continuous stimulating effect on the market. It is expected that the short-term garlic price will run smoothly.
Zhuo Chuang information agricultural products analyst He Tan: the possibility of sharp rise or fall in short-term prices is not too great. In the long run, the stock of garlic is about 3.4 million tons, which is a relatively high quantity in recent ten years. Once around the Spring Festival, if the inventory digestion speed is not very fast, it may have an impact on the market mentality, everyone's enthusiasm for selling goods may increase, and the price may still decline.
In addition, the long-term garlic price will also be affected by the planting area and output of new garlic next year. The general expectation of the market for the increase of planting area also makes the long-term garlic price lack of support.