The GDP of Beijing and Shanghai has exceeded 2 trillion. Who are the club cities
In terms of economic aggregate, Shanghai ranks first. When Shenzhen has not announced the total GDP of the first three quarters, Shanghai and Beijing are the only cities with a GDP of more than two trillion yuan in China, followed by Guangzhou, Chongqing, Tianjin, Suzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Wuxi and Ningbo.
As of October 29, 2019, among the 16 cities with GDP exceeding trillion at the end of 2018, 11 cities have released the third quarter economic data.
What was the economic performance of these club cities with GDP over trillion in the first three quarters? The 21st century economic research institute compares and analyzes the development quality of China's "top cities" from six dimensions: total GDP and growth rate, fixed investment growth rate, consumption growth rate, industrial growth rate and foreign trade growth rate.
In terms of economic aggregate, Shanghai ranks first. When Shenzhen has not announced the total GDP of the first three quarters, Shanghai and Beijing are the only cities with a GDP of more than two trillion yuan in China, followed by Guangzhou, Chongqing, Tianjin, Suzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Wuxi and Ningbo. According to the forecast, by the end of the year, the GDP will be trillion, or the club will expand to 17 cities, and Foshan is expected to be among them.
Foshan is expected to be promoted to the trillion club
According to the published GDP data of the third quarter, Shanghai and Beijing ranked the top two with 2536.12 billion yuan and 2313 billion yuan respectively, ranking in the first echelon. Guangzhou, Chongqing and Tianjin ranked third to fifth with 1786.899 billion yuan, 1607.356 billion yuan and 1525.635 billion yuan respectively, ranking in the second echelon. The GDP of Suzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan and Hangzhou in the first three quarters has exceeded trillion, ranking in the third echelon. At present, the GDP of Wuxi and Ningbo is more than 800 billion yuan.
As of October 30, five of the 16 cities with a GDP of more than trillion last year, including Shenzhen, had not yet released the third quarter data. However, from the GDP data of 1753.069 billion yuan in the third quarter of last year and 1213.392 billion yuan in the first half of this year, Shenzhen's GDP ranking in the first three quarters will still be in the top position.
Among the new first tier cities, Chengdu and Wuhan have been catching up in GDP ranking in recent years. In the first three quarters of 2019, there is still no obvious gap between the two cities, and Chengdu is only 51.887 billion yuan higher than Wuhan.
Based on the total GDP in the first three quarters of 2019, which cities will be added to the trillion GDP club at the end of the year?
At the end of 2018, the GDP growth rate of Foshan was only 6.3%, 2.0 percentage points lower than that in 2017, and the total GDP was 993.588 billion yuan, which led to the city missing the trillion GDP club.
According to the work report of Foshan Municipal Government in 2019, the GDP growth target for this year is 6% - 6.5%. With a growth rate of 6.5%, Foshan's GDP can break the trillion mark by the end of 2019. In the first three quarters of this year, Foshan's GDP grew by 7%. This means that by the end of 2019, the membership of the club with a GDP of trillion may increase by one city to 17 cities.
In terms of GDP growth, Chengdu is the fastest growing city among the 11 cities with published data, and it is also the only city with a growth rate of more than 8%. Since the first quarter of 2017, the GDP growth rate of Chengdu has remained in the range of 8% - 8.2% for 11 consecutive quarters, indicating that the city has maintained a relatively stable economic growth momentum in recent years. In the subdivided economic fields, there is no significant fluctuation in the data of industry, service industry, investment or foreign trade.
Wuhan ranks second in GDP growth with a difference of 0.3 percentage points, and continues to pursue Chengdu. The GDP growth rate of 8 of the other 9 cities is equal to or higher than 6%, and that of Tianjin is the lowest, only 4.6% in the first three quarters.
It should be noted that this growth rate is higher than the annual growth target of 4.5% proposed in the work report of Tianjin municipal government in 2019, and 1.3 percentage points higher than that in the third quarter of 2018. However, Tianjin's ranking among cities in China is challenged. If the economic growth gap continues to be large in the next few quarters, Suzhou's GDP may surpass Tianjin by the end of 2020.
The growth rate of investment in Guangzhou is far ahead
In the first three quarters, members of the club with a GDP of trillion showed great differences in the growth rate of fixed asset investment. Guangzhou ranks first with a growth rate of 21.1%. The 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that the driving force of high growth rate mainly comes from Guangzhou's efforts in large projects since this year.
Specifically, in the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in Guangzhou was 19.1%, 24.8% and 21.1% respectively, far exceeding the data in the same period last year. The reason is that Guangzhou has played a significant leading role in large projects. In the first half of the year alone, 62 projects with an investment of more than one billion yuan were completed, an increase of 23 year-on-year.
In the first three quarters, Guangzhou continued to promote large projects in infrastructure and industrial investment, with investment in railway transportation and road transportation increasing by 53.5% and 38.7% respectively. Driven by large projects such as Foxconn, LG OLED, Guangzhou Yuexin 12 inch and Evergrande intelligent auto parts, industrial investment increased by 25.9%.
Although the GDP growth rate of Tianjin is low, its fixed asset investment growth rate ranks second in 11 cities, reaching 15.4%. Hangzhou ranked third, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment was 11.9%. Similar to Guangzhou, large projects have an obvious driving effect on Hangzhou's fixed asset investment. For example, driven by subway, airport construction and other projects, transportation investment increased by 27.0%, driving the growth of fixed asset investment by 3.3 percentage points.
The growth rate of fixed asset investment in Shanghai is only 0.1 percentage points higher than that in Beijing, ranking 10th in 11 cities with a growth rate of 4.8%. However, there are still bright spots in Shanghai, that is, the field of industrial investment still maintained a high growth rate. In the first three quarters, Shanghai's industrial investment increased by 16.3%, which has maintained a double-digit growth for the 18th month.
In terms of consumption, Chengdu, which is building a "consumer city with Chinese characteristics", achieved a growth rate of 9.7% in the total retail sales of consumer goods in the third quarter, ranking first among the 11 cities.
In the field of consumption, there are many highlights to be found in Chengdu. The first is the steady progress of consumption upgrading. The retail sales of sports and entertainment supplies, Chinese and Western medicines and cultural office supplies increased by 12.8%, 18.7% and 10.0% respectively; Second, the economic development trend of "first store" is good, with 371 new first stores of international brands, exceeding the number of first stores in 2018, second only to Shanghai and Beijing; Third, the construction of the international gourmet capital was accelerated, and the catering revenue above the quota increased by 29.7%, 25.1 percentage points higher than the growth rate of retail sales above the quota.
In addition to Chengdu, the consumption data of many cities in the first three quarters are also commendable. For example, there was a strong demand for innovative commodities in Hangzhou in the first three quarters. The retail sales of wearable smart devices, smart household appliances and audio-visual equipment in units above the quota increased by 48.9% and 34.8% respectively, and the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 28.8%.
In the consumer market in Guangzhou, the growth rate of retail sales of consumer upgrading commodities accelerated. The retail sales of cosmetics and gold, silver and jewelry above the designated size increased by 13.3% and 36.8% respectively, 4.8 and 4.6 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year.
In the first three quarters, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in Tianjin decreased by 1.4%, becoming the only city with negative growth in 11 cities. As an important indicator of urban consumption vitality, Tianjin's low growth performance in this regard should be paid enough attention.
Hangzhou's emerging industries grew rapidly
In terms of the growth rate of industrial added value above Designated Size, it can be seen that the growth rate of 11 Club cities with GDP of trillion is not high. Taking the growth rate of 5.6% of the added value of industries above Designated Size in the third quarter as the index, only Chengdu, Wuhan and Wuxi are higher than this value.
The added value of industries above Designated Size in Chengdu increased by 8.0% in the first three quarters, which has remained above 8% for 12 consecutive months. In addition, in terms of industrial volume, the total industrial added value of Chengdu reached 566.38 billion yuan in 2018, second only to Shenzhen among the total industrial added value of 15 sub provincial cities, which means that Chengdu has surpassed most coastal cities in industrial volume.
In the first three quarters, Wuxi's industrial added value above the designated size reached 7.1%, ranking second in 11 cities; Wuhan ranks third with a growth rate of 5.6%. The growth rate of industries above Designated Size in Beijing, Tianjin and Suzhou lagged behind, increasing by 2.9%, 2.2% and 0.9% respectively.
Although the added value of industries above Designated Size in Hangzhou increased by only 4.4% in the third quarter, the city intends to increase investment in industry in the future.
Hangzhou launched the 'new manufacturing plan' in September, focusing on the development of strategic emerging industries. It is planned that by 2025, the total industrial output value of the city will reach 250 billion yuan, and the added value of industries above Designated Size will reach 680 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 10%; The city's enterprises have entered 30 of China's top 500 enterprises and 40 of China's top 500 manufacturing enterprises. More than 100 strategic emerging industries and future industrial projects are attracted every year. It is expected that the added value of strategic emerging industries will account for more than 50% in about five years.
In the first three quarters of 2019, the development of strategic emerging industries in Hangzhou is also commendable. The added value of high-tech industries is 147 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3%, accounting for 57.8% of industries above Designated Size, an increase of 2.9 percentage points over the same period of last year.
In terms of foreign trade growth, Chengdu and Chongqing, the two western giants, have obvious advantages over coastal areas, with growth rates of 18.6% and 12.3% respectively. In contrast, the growth rate of coastal cities more seriously affected by the global economy, such as Guangzhou, Wuxi and Suzhou, is only 0.5%, - 0.5% and - 4.4%.
Chengdu's high growth in foreign trade is due to the rapid growth of commodity exports with high added value and high-tech content. The export volume of turbine engines, integrated circuits and LCD panels increased by 31.3%, 37.1% and 2 times. At the same time, Chengdu hi tech comprehensive bonded zone has a good growth momentum. The total import and export volume in the first three quarters increased by 26%, and its scale has ranked first in the national comprehensive bonded zone for 18 consecutive months.
The 21st Century Economic Research Institute believes that under the background of 17 member cities of the 'GDP trillion club' at the end of the year, local economic development shows the following characteristics. First, the economies of these cities are undergoing transformation and upgrading in different ways, such as Hangzhou, Chongqing and other places' attention to emerging manufacturing industries, Chengdu's strong support for consumer industries, etc; Secondly, city one belt, one road, and the other side of the road will be constructed to build a new industrial division system. Finally, the exploration of cities with a GDP of trillion in tax reduction and fee reduction, reducing factor cost prices, improving business environment and improving international competitiveness may bring more local practical experience to the transformation and upgrading of China's economy.