Sihai network

The first Alzheimer's drug has been proved effective and is expected to be mass produced in 2020

Original title: Bio gene of a US listed company said that the research and development of Alzheimer's disease antibody had made a major breakthrough, and the share price soared by more than 40% in the session

Just eight months after Biogen Inc. NASDAQ: biib announced the failure of its main Alzheimer's drug aducanumab, things ushered in a 180 degree reversal. Biogene announced on Tuesday (October 22) that the company plans to submit the drug to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for review in early 2020 according to the "new analysis of larger data sets", and said that the drug developed by the company can alleviate the mental decline of some Alzheimer's patients. At present, no drug in the world has made such a breakthrough in the research and development of Alzheimer's, a serious and incurable disease. Coupled with the company's performance in the third quarter far exceeding expectations, the biological gene once soared 41.95% on Tuesday, or will hit the best one-day increase in more than 20 years.

As of 0:10 a.m. Beijing time on October 23, biological genes had increased by 26.18%, and the market value had soared by nearly $10.8 billion. Nevertheless, since the beginning of the year, the cumulative increase of biological genes is still negative (- 5.31%).

Industry: bring hope to the global Alzheimer's group

Bloomberg reported that the reason why the share price of biological genes rose so sharply is that no drug in the world has made such a breakthrough in the research and development of Alzheimer's, a serious and incurable disease. If the biological gene adukanu antibody is approved by FDA, there will be great business opportunities. But at the same time, Bloomberg also believes that investors should be cautious about the progress of biological genes in the drug - the market seems to have overreacted.

Biogene and its partner Eisai Co. Ltd. in Japan said that its decision to seek FDA approval of adukanu, a drug for the treatment of early Alzheimer's disease, was made after the drug reached the third stage and negotiated with the FDA. Biological genes said that the third stage study on some patients did not achieve the final effect.

Anton porsteinsson, chief researcher and director of Alzheimer's disease care, research and education program at the University of Rochester, said: 'the first phase III study of biological gene adukanu drug shows that the elimination of sniping and amyloid & beta; Protein can reduce the clinical decline of Alzheimer's disease and bring hope to the medical community, patients and families. The global Alzheimer's disease community has been waiting for this moment. "

Guggenheim analyst yatin suneja said in a research report that if adukanu can obtain FDA approval, it will completely change the company image of biological genes, leading institutions and investment banks to raise the company's rating one after another. Suneja has maintained a neutral rating on biological genes since February this year, with a target price of $256.

Investment bank: cautious about the prospect of adukanu

The reporter of the daily economic news noted that eight months ago, when biogene and Eisai said they had decided to stop the third stage of the adukanu research experiment, biogene's share price plunged by 29.2% that day. The sharp rise on Tuesday also brought the share price of biogenes back to a level close to that before the sharp decline in March.

Stock price trend of biogenes during the year

The Wall Street Journal reported that the market's optimism about biogenes is understandable, but according to FactSet data, the expected P / E ratio of biogenes' stock price was less than 7 times as of Monday's close. There is also a reason for this phenomenon - the company is facing increasingly fierce competition and intellectual property challenges on the key products that have been listed. Before the news on Tuesday morning and the release of the third quarter results, Wall Street analysts had been predicting that biogenic revenue would drop from $14.1 billion this year to $13.1 billion in 2023. To really overcome these problems faced by the company, biogenesis still needs to make great efforts in adukanu drugs. However, according to the news announced by the company on Tuesday, this optimism is far from guaranteed.

Mizuho analyst Salim Syed also maintained a neutral rating on biological genes. He said that although the news announced by the company on Tuesday 'sounds' very positive, there is still no guarantee whether the FDA can approve it.

Leerink analysts said in a report on Tuesday that when adukanu entered the market and caused a sensation, the share price of biogenes will reach between $485 and $525. In other words, leerink analysts believe that the share price of biogenes is undervalued by about 40%. In addition, even adukanu, whose biological genes have been approved by the FDA, needs to convince the insurance company that the drug can indeed slow the mental decline of Alzheimer's patients, so that the insurance company can agree to pay for the drug.