On the same day, Nanjing and Tianjin, two second tier cities, announced the new policy of property market adjustment, which undoubtedly put a 'deep-water bomb' into the property market near the end of the year.
For a time, it set off a wave of contention about the future trend of the property market.
Has the wind direction of the property market changed? In the second half of the property market, do you buy or sell a house? Kunming, a second tier city, how long can the rising house prices last?
What does' deregulation of the property market 'mean?
On October 15, the news of loosening the "purchase restriction order" came from Liuhe District, Nanjing. As long as you have a college degree or above and can provide a Nanjing urban residence permit and academic certificate, you can issue a house purchase certificate in Liuhe real estate registration center, and there is no need to provide a social security or individual income tax certificate for two years in recent three years.
On the same day, the Tianjin Municipal Development and Reform Commission issued the "policy measures on promoting the development of Tianjin's non capital function projects (Trial Implementation)". It consulted the Beijing capital company which had not registered residence in Tianjin. The family in Tianjin had no housing, and could purchase 1 apartments in Tianjin without any social security or tax certificate. The development of Beijing city was not a residential one. At the same time, it also relaxed the settlement policy of Tianjin.
Although, after the event, several departments of Nanjing Liuhe local real estate bureau said that it was not "relaxing purchase restrictions", but an incentive mechanism for talent introduction. However, it is still questioned that this move is suspected of 'playing a marginal ball'.
Tianjin's original intention is not to loosen the regulation of the property market, but some people in the industry said, 'once the document is passed, it may still objectively stimulate market demand and help the local property market.'
Why is it just a policy 'fine-tuning' that will trigger such a great impact and debate? " What does the deregulation of the property market mean?
The particularity of China's economic structure leads to the proportion of investment in the real estate industry in the economic structure, which is different from that in other countries. Even in China, the local fiscal revenue of many cities is highly dependent on the investment in the real estate industry.
This is also the main reason why every 'fine-tuning' of urban real estate market policy will affect the whole body and trigger heated discussion.
Specifically, the significance of 'deregulation of the property market' includes the following aspects:
1. The relaxation of credit means that the capital inflow channels of the real estate industry are increased, and the inflow of a large amount of hot money makes more funds invest in the real estate market, which changes the relationship between supply and demand in the market and leads to the rise of house prices.
2. The relaxation of the purchase restriction policy means that the restrictions on the purchase access threshold for some people are relaxed. While releasing the rigid demand, it will also affect the relationship between market supply and demand and lead to the rise of house prices.
3. The relaxation of talent introduction and settlement policy means that while introducing talents, it will also give some preferential policies on house purchase (such as Nanjing and Tianjin), which will indirectly affect the real estate market.
Any of the above 'property market deregulation' will make buyers anxious. Worried that house prices will rise soon and house purchase pressure will increase; Worried that developers will suddenly change their minds, house prices will rise too fast, and the risk of taking over the offer will increase.
According to incomplete statistics, if measures such as household registration, price restriction, sales restriction, purchase restriction, provident fund and land loan are taken into account, at least 25 cities across the country have joined the camp of deregulation, covering the first, second and third tier cities.
Kunming is highly dependent on finance and real estate! Over 50%
Whether it is a 'people grabbing war' or a move made by the local government to 'rescue the market' cannot be concluded for the time being.
But by analogy, in this storm, Kunming, which is a second tier city and highly dependent on real estate investment, undoubtedly makes local just in need buyers and investors sweat secretly.
According to the latest data released by Ruili data, from January to July 2019, the investment in fixed assets above Designated Size in Kunming completed 192.490 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.60%. Among them, the real estate investment is 99.129 billion yuan, accounting for 51.50% of the total fixed asset investment above Designated Size in Kunming.
From the historical data, the investment in real estate development in Kunming has been increasing year by year in recent years, and its proportion in GDP has basically remained around 35%, far higher than that of other provincial capitals in Southwest China. The proportion of real estate development investment in GDP in Kunming is significantly higher than that in most domestic provincial capitals, and the local finance is obviously too dependent on the real estate industry.
In this context, the land price in Kunming is also rising, and the floor price is constantly refreshed. At the same time, house prices in Kunming are rising all the way. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the price of new commercial houses in Kunming has risen for 38 consecutive months as of August 2019. In September, the average transaction price of house prices in Kunming was 14402 yuan / m2, an increase of 5.0% month on month, and even a house price peak of 30000 yuan / m2.
In this regard, some buyers believe that there is a bubble in the Kunming property market, worried about the high price, prices fall risk.
For cities whose fiscal revenue depends too much on real estate investment, whether it is directly relaxing the purchase restriction policy, introducing talents, or settling in the new deal, it will indirectly affect the development of the real estate market.
Outsiders buy 60% of the houses in Kunming. Who will take the offer in the future?
According to Ruili's data, in the first half of 2019, the residential market increased by 398.68 m2, the turnover was 4.2679 million m2, the average monthly residential area was 710000 m2, and the supply-sales ratio was 0.9. Roughly based on an average of 100 ㎡ per suite, 42679 suites will be sold in Kunming property market in the first half of 2019.
In 2018, 81260 commercial houses were sold in Kunming (including commercial houses, businesses and offices in the main city of Kunming and Chenggong), a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%; The transaction area was 9.1312 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%. The data that looks good has reached the lowest value in recent 6 years!
Who bought so many houses every year?
According to the data, in 2015, the people who bought houses in Kunming were mainly local, accounting for 65%, the people who bought houses in Kunming in other prefectures and cities of Yunnan province accounted for 20%, and the customers who bought houses outside the province accounted for only 15%.
In 2016, the proportion of local people buying houses in Kunming decreased to 50%, and the proportion of people buying houses in prefectures and cities and people buying houses outside the province accounted for 25%.
By 2017, the proportion of local buyers in Kunming had dropped to 40%, with 24% of buyers in prefectures and cities of Yunnan Province and 36% of customers outside the province.
It is also rumored that 60% of the data of Kunming in 2018 were bought by people from other provinces. According to the internal sales of a villa area next to Dianchi Lake, one third were bought by people from other provinces.
Especially in recent years, Kunming has attracted a lot of retired elderly care people from first tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen and migrant bird vacation home buyers from cold areas such as the three eastern provinces.
It is not surprising that house prices in Kunming remain high.
Although Kunming issued a policy of restricting the purchase of foreign residents in July 1st this year, it is not a registered residence in the province, and the age limit is 1 when the age of eighteen is equal to the natural person of the same status. To some extent, it restricts outsiders from buying houses in Kunming, but the effect is limited, and the house price in Kunming continues to rise.
On the other hand, due to the low level of per capita income in Yunnan and the increasing house prices, a large part of the rigid demand in Kunming has not been really stimulated, and the purchasing power has not been released, which has restrained the housing consumption power of local people in Kunming to a certain extent.
At this point, is it time to buy a house? Or sell a house?
The eternal philosophy of the property market.
For just need, what we need is a place to live. When to buy a house has nothing to do with policy and market. Need is the best time.
For investors, market supply and demand determine whether to buy or sell a house. Under the property market regulation principle of "housing, housing and non speculation", it is also a risk to win through buying a house, which needs to be cautious.
Summary:
In the face of the indisputable fact that 60% of the houses are bought by outsiders, how long can the soaring house prices in Kunming last? Kunming suddenly stopped withdrawing property fees from provident fund. Is it a big move?