Analysis of Turkey Syria war situation after 120 hours of ceasefire in Syria
In eight days, more than 700 people were killed and 270000 civilians were displaced. The military operation launched by Turkey against Kurdish forces in northern Syria has made the outside world pay more attention to the volatile situation in the Middle East.
The Turkish Syrian border is full of gunfire, the humanitarian situation is deteriorating, and there are more and more international voices condemning Turkey. The United States, which was criticized for withdrawing troops from Syria, had to return to mediate awkwardly and reached a ceasefire agreement with Turkey on the 17th.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who claimed that he would not accept negotiations, was not afraid of US sanctions, and even threw Trump's peace persuasion letter into the trash can, pressed the pause button of the ceasefire after the United States obtained the desired results.
Ceasefire = Kurds disarm and evacuate
Are the Turks satisfied?
On the 17th, eight days after the operation against Syria, Erdogan met with visiting US Vice President burns to reach an agreement on the temporary ceasefire of Turkish troops in northern Syria and the establishment of a 'security zone'.
According to the agreement, Turkey will suspend operations for 120 hours, and Turkey will establish a 'safety zone' with a depth of about 32 kilometers along the Turkish Syrian border in northern Syria. Kurdish armed forces and people will withdraw from the 'safety zone' within this time.
In fact, the United States and Turkey reached an agreement in August to establish a "security zone" in northern Syria to isolate the Turkish border and the Kurdish armed forces in northern Syria. However, because Turkey believes that the United States' favors' the Kurds in this matter, the agreement eventually lapses.
The ceasefire agreement on the 17th not only allowed Turkey to delimit the scope of the 'security zone', but also completely drove the Kurdish armed forces out of the 'security zone', and even required the Kurdish armed forces to turn in their weapons and destroy fortifications and positions.
US House Speaker Pelosi and the minority leader of the Senate made it clear on the 17th that "Erdogan has not given up anything, and President trump has given him everything."
Turkish Foreign Minister chavusholu also said that after negotiations with the United States, Turkey "achieved the desired results".
In an interview with chinanews.com, Li Weijian, a researcher at the Institute of foreign policy of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies and vice president of the China middle east society, analyzed that reaching a ceasefire agreement is a result of the balance of interests of all parties. Turkey is now facing various pressures from the international community. The ceasefire is actually a decision after weighing the pros and cons.
More than 1000 people were killed and injured and 270000 fled
Will this war allow terrorist forces to take the opportunity to fight back?
Since the launch of Turkey's "fountain of peace" operation on September 9, there have been air strikes, ground shooting and sniping on the northern border between Turkey and Syria every day.
According to the data of the Turkish Ministry of defense, 637 PKK or PKK have been killed in recent days. In the eyes of the Turkish army, these people are 'terrorists'.
More and more innocent people have also become victims of this war. Since the Turkish offensive began, 75 Syrian civilians have been killed and more than 450 injured.
A large number of people were forced to flee their homes, and hundreds of thousands of Syrians faced despair. The Syrian Kurdish armed political representative agency said that the Turkish military operation has displaced more than 275000 civilians, including about 70000 children.
What is more worrying is that prisoners of the extremist organization 'Islamic state' may escape from prisons in northern Syria taking advantage of the war. Even US President trump did not forget to transfer some extremely dangerous terrorists when withdrawing troops from Syria.
According to the analysis, if terrorists flee in all directions, the 'Islamic state' forces may take the opportunity to make a comeback, which will threaten Syria, the Middle East and even international peace and security.
"Three steps" of withdrawal, sanctions and mediation
Has the United States' counselled 'Turkey?
Turkey wants to send troops, and the United States' Zhiqu 'withdraws its troops; When war broke out, the United States came to persuade peace. If the big stick of sanctions is not enough, senior officials will be sent to mediate and finally promote a ceasefire agreement in favor of Turkey.
What the hell is America doing? This may ask trump.
When the White House announced the withdrawal of troops from Syria and stated that it "did not support or participate" in the Turkish military action, trump would not expect that he would "Curse" and abandon his allies. Because the Kurdish armed forces were comrades in arms who fought side by side with the United States against the 'Islamic state'.
It is also rare for the two parties in the United States to reach an agreement to criticize Trump's treachery. Trump initially argued that he abandoned the Kurds because he did not help the United States during World War II. Later, unable to withstand the pressure, he could only speak hard to Turkey and asked the other party not to go too far.
However, erdo ğ an refused to budge on the Turkish Syrian border issue, so trump had to write a letter to warn him: "don't be a tough man, don't be a fool." However, some sources said Erdogan threw the letter into the dustbin.
In vain, trump offered a big stick of sanctions against Turkey. At that time, Erdogan's response was: it was impossible to negotiate with 'terrorists' without worrying about US sanctions.
In desperation, trump had to send Vice President burns to Turkey to mediate face to face. As a result of the meeting, the United States' decided 'for the Kurdish armed forces and signed a ceasefire agreement.
Trump sent a message to Erdogan on the social networking website for the first time, saying that this is good news not only for the United States, Turkey or Kurds, but also a "great day" for human civilization.
Dong Manyuan, a researcher at the China Academy of international studies, believes that the result of the U.S. mediation is a compromise with Turkey, but also to improve relations with Turkey and want to bring Turkey back to the arms of the United States. But this is actually 'abandoning the Kurdish armed forces, which can also be said to be a betrayal of it'.
Be condemned and don't give up
Why is Turkey determined to fight Kurdish?
Since sending troops to northern Syria, Turkey has been criticized by international public opinion.
Egypt, the Arab League criticized its "aggression", Germany, France and other European countries strongly condemned Turkey and resolutely suspended its arms sales & hellip& hellip;
Facing the pressure of international public opinion, Erdogan still does not change his hard line position, insisting that unless Turkey's "clear and reasonable" position is recognized, any foreign leaders' visit to persuade peace or telephone call can only be a "waste of time and energy".
Why is Turkey determined to fight the Kurdish armed forces?
"Turkey has been eyeing this place and has entered the region many times in the name of counter-terrorism," Li Weijian said.
He analyzed that 'there has been a long-term game between Turkey and its domestic Kurds. Worried about the linkage between these people and the Syrian Kurds, Turkey hopes to take the current opportunity to establish a buffer zone to separate the Kurds of the two countries. "
'turkey has hosted 3.6 million Syrian refugees. The refugee problem has seriously hindered Turkey's domestic development ". Dong Manyuan added that Turkey hopes to settle refugees by establishing a so-called" security zone ", so as to get rid of this" heavy burden ".
A temporary ceasefire or a permanent ceasefire
Can five days be exchanged for Turkish Syrian peace?
Can the Kurds withdraw from the "security zone" within five days as stipulated in the "ceasefire" agreement?
In a telephone interview, the commander of the Kurdish led Syrian democratic force (SDF), general Mazloum Abdi, told the Kurdish television station ronahitv that the SDF was ready to abide by the ceasefire and would take all necessary measures to achieve it.
On January 20, 2019 local time, the Turkish army began to launch military operations against Afrin in northern Syria. The picture shows the Syrian opposition armed 'Syrian free army' firing at Kurdish armed forces with the support of Turkish artillery.
Dong Manyuan analyzed that due to the great power gap with Turkey, the Kurds will have to fulfill the agreement in order to preserve their strength and avoid the destruction of the 'northern Syrian Federation'.
"The possibility of becoming a permanent ceasefire agreement exists," he said. "Judging from the gains and losses of all parties, Turkey has something to gain. Turkey has basically opened up the & lsquo; border with Syria; Safe area & rsquo; Imagine that 'Turkey will not cross 30 kilometers and continue to push in depth', 'it is unlikely that a war between Turkey and Syria will break out, or it can be ruled out'.
Dong Manyuan further said that "marked by the current trend of the United States to withdraw its troops completely from Syria, it means that the United States has now abandoned its attempt to promote regime change in Syria", "this means that the Bashar regime will be consolidated" and "it will have an important impact on the situation in the Middle East in the future".
Li Weijian said that although he did not rule out the possibility of Kurdish withdrawal on schedule, he did not think that the current situation would become a solid state.
He said, "a temporary ceasefire is actually just an expedient measure to prevent the situation from deteriorating. The future is still full of variables. What will Turkey do next and what will the Kurds do next? The parties may have to make further consultations or mediation during the next ceasefire. "