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British and American political turmoil, Johnson may be forced to step down?

"Foreign countries are quite disorderly and engage in intrigues all day. Today they impeach their leaders and tomorrow the prime minister will be fired & hellip& hellip;' This sketch line, which became popular more than a decade ago, is now vividly staged on both sides of the Atlantic. Following the impeachment investigation of US President trump, the British Prime Minister is meeting his difficult time.

According to a number of British media reports on the 28th, in order to prevent 'no agreement brexit', the British opposition party will promote the lower house of Parliament to start the government no confidence vote as early as next week. Johnson is likely to be forced to step down after taking office for more than two months, and labor leader Corbin may become interim Prime Minister. Will such a dramatic scene really happen?

The only way

On the 28th local time, Stuart & middot, senior member of the Scottish National Party; Hosey said that in order to get Johnson out of office and ensure that Britain extends the deadline for 'brexit', the opposition parties in the house of Commons will launch a government no confidence vote as early as next Monday or Tuesday (September 30 or October 1 local time). " We must do so because no one now believes that the prime minister will abide by the law. "

Some commentators said that the opposition party had been reluctant to launch a no confidence vote because it was worried that if the parties did not reach an agreement on alternatives, even if the current government lost the no confidence vote, Johnson could still get the opportunity to hold an early election and postpone the election until after the "brexit" deadline on October 31, so as to continue to promote "brexit" according to his own "script".

Now, why did the opposition decide to promote the no confidence vote? Some people believe that Johnson's tough statement in recent days has worried the opposition that the dangerous prime minister will turn a blind eye to the 'anti non agreement brexit law' previously passed by Parliament. According to the bill, if the Johnson administration cannot reach a new agreement with the EU before October 19, it must apply to the EU for an extension of 'brexit'. But Johnson believes that this is a 'capitulation Bill' and 'intended to damage Britain's negotiating position'.

'holding a vote of no confidence is & lsquo; Helpless & rsquo;, Is to ensure that Johnson will not push & lsquo; before October 31; Brexit without agreement & rsquo; The only way. " Hossie said.

Ye Jiang, vice president of the Shanghai European Society and researcher of the Shanghai Institute of international studies, believes that the opposition's unwillingness to launch a no confidence vote was mainly a matter of time. At that time, the British Parliament was about to adjourn, and there was not enough time (14 days) to confirm the caretaker cabinet, which would only give Johnson an advantage. Now that Parliament is reopened, the situation is different. In addition, parliamentarians are also worried that although parliament has passed a series of laws, if the government refuses to comply, delays to the last minute to promote "no agreement brexit" and responds by starting a "state of emergency", parliament may also be helpless. Therefore, if the opposition wants to take drastic measures, it is to let Johnson step down.

According to the BBC, according to the rules of the British Parliament, the no confidence vote only needs a simple majority, that is, it only needs to obtain the affirmative vote of more than half of the members of the house of Commons. If the no confidence vote is not passed, it means that the current government wins and it will continue to operate as before. If the vote of no confidence is passed, that is, the current government is not trusted, the parliament will promote the succession process of the new prime minister and the new government. At this time, several situations will occur:

First, it depends on whether the alternative government can obtain a majority in the house of Commons. If possible, the current prime minister will resign and a new prime minister will be appointed. The alternative government needs to win the trust motion of Parliament within 14 days. If it is trusted, there is no need for general elections, and the new government will continue to operate. If the new government loses the confidence motion, it will trigger an early election.

Secondly, if it is obvious that the replacement government cannot obtain the majority of seats in the house of Commons, the current prime minister will remain in office and he has 14 days to let the government win the parliamentary trust motion. If trusted, there will be no general election and the original government will remain in power. If the government is not trusted again, it depends on whether the Parliamentarians agree to change the prime minister. If the Parliamentarians agree, the current prime minister will resign and the new prime minister will go through the cabinet formation procedure again. If parliamentarians do not agree to change the prime minister, it will trigger an early election.

In either case, the early general election should be held as early as seven weeks after the no confidence vote.

According to the SNP, if the vote of no confidence is passed, they will support allowing Labour leader Corbin to take over as prime minister. However, not all members of the opposition are happy to see Corbin become the next prime minister. The Liberal Democratic Party and many members of the Conservative Party have made it clear that they will not allow labour leaders to enter Downing Street, even in the short term.

Us cable news network (CNN) said that Corbin himself was a controversial opposition leader. He had been criticized for his vague position of "brexit" and his failure to eliminate anti Semitism in the labor party. His disapproval rate was 60%, making him the most unpopular opposition leader on record, while the support rate of the Labour Party remained at about 25%, far below the level required to win a majority in the British Parliament.

According to the data on the official website of the British Parliament, among the 650 seats in the lower house of Parliament, the Conservative Party led by Johnson accounted for 288 seats, and the opposition Labour Party, the Scottish National Party and the Liberal Democratic Party accounted for 247, 35 and 18 seats respectively. This means that no single political party has an absolute majority in the house of Commons. The guardian said that even with the full support of the 35 members of the Scottish National Party, Corbin was still far from reaching the minimum threshold of 326 seats required for a majority in the house of Commons.

Ye Jiang pointed out that at present, there is no unified voice within the opposition party. It is reported that some parliamentarians advocate the election of a green party leader as prime minister. Therefore, there are still many variables in the outcome of the distrust vote.

Favorite of public opinion

Some commentators said that the opposition's vote of no confidence was of a 'bet' nature. They bet that Johnson will lose, or that the forces opposing "no agreement brexit" will win, but the reality may be bleaker. On the one hand, since World War II, only the labor minority government in Britain lost the no confidence vote in 1979 and was replaced by the conservative government led by Thatcher. On the other hand, if the vote of no confidence finally triggers the general election, the opposition may 'throw themselves into the net', and the latest polls have described a negative balance of power between the government and the opposition.

The Guardian reported on the 28th that despite another difficult week for the Johnson administration, the support rate of the Conservative Party remained at 36% in the latest poll, 12 percentage points ahead of the 24% of the labor party. In addition, what worries Corbin is that the support rate of the Liberal Democratic Party increased by 3 percentage points to 20%, which is the first time that the party has won the most support among the voters of the 'stay in Europe'. Personally, Johnson's approval rating of 37% is still far ahead of Corbin's of 16%.

Why is Johnson still the prime minister's first choice in the hearts of British voters after a series of "bumps" in the lower house of Parliament and the Supreme Court?

Ye Jiang pointed out that this is the role of populism in Britain or Europe as a whole. Johnson is a well-known populist, who has been widely supported by the anti establishment forces in the party and the people at the bottom of society; Under the impact of populism, the support rate of traditional political parties has generally declined, which is also the biggest feature of British politics today.

Tian Dewen, deputy director of the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that British voters are not choosing 'good and better', but choosing between 'bad and worse'. Corbin seems to be the only political opponent in British politics who is likely to defeat Johnson, but the gap between the two is still wide.

However, experts agreed that despite its dominance, the Conservative Party could not win more than half of the support, and its popularity remained at the 30% level, which could not form a cabinet alone. The British Daily Mail said that even if Johnson holds the election as he wishes, the situation after the election may not be better than at present. He and the conservatives may not be the only ones benefiting. Tian Dewen believes that the biggest beneficiary may be the Liberal Democratic Party.

Election tools

Johnson will spend four days with his colleagues at the Conservative Party's annual convention in Manchester from May 29 as the opposition sharpens its swords. It was commented that the four-day victory cheer was unlikely to put Johnson in a mood of reconciliation and compromise. With the "brexit" date getting closer and the possible general election getting closer, hostility is accumulating over London.

CNN said that from the British political opposition to EU officials in Brussels, people are asking, how serious are Johnson and the conservatives about Britain's "brexit"? More and more people think that they are not serious.

The times pointed out that the British government's contacts with other EU leaders are being strengthened recently. On Friday, British "brexit" minister Barclays went to Brussels to meet with EU foreign minister Barnier. Although the prime minister believes he can reach a new agreement at the European Council Summit from October 17 to 18. But Brussels disagreed. The source said that Brussels only responded with a polite smile to the "brexit" agreement alternative submitted by the UK. Because the EU increasingly feels that the documents they send are empty.

Tian Dewen said that the EU is open to negotiating a new agreement, and the question is what else the two sides can talk about. The EU also hopes that Britain will leave as soon as possible. It is only because Britain can't settle its internal differences that it has been turning around in the same place.

Luke & middot, an American analyst; McKee believes it is no secret that Johnson wants to hold the election as soon as possible. Judging from the current situation, his attitude of "brexit" at all costs is being more welcomed by the public. But if he now 'turns around' and seeks to delay 'brexit', it may be interpreted as betrayal by 'hard brexit' supporters, then everything may change.

'‘ Brexit & rsquo; "It's just Johnson's tool to win the election," said an EU diplomat. "We no longer believe that he really wants to reach an agreement at this stage. One with & lsquo; Surrender Act & rsquo; How can the British prime minister who is campaigning for the slogan really compromise? "

Tian Dewen believes that, indeed, Johnson regards "brexit" as his biggest card. Former British Prime Minister David Cameron once said that Johnson was originally a "European faction", but now he firmly supports "brexit". In fact, he uses "brexit" as a political resource.

'wrestling with pigs'

The New York Times said that the fate of trump and Johnson had never been so synchronized on both sides of the Atlantic in the past week. The two pompous and polarized leaders are trapped in fierce political struggle and ruthless chaos, which also puts great pressure on the two Anglo Saxon democracies in the world.

In fact, their backgrounds are quite different: one is a lover of Greek classical literature who graduated from Eton University and Oxford University; The other is real estate developers in New York, who like to watch reality shows and spend a lot of time among the upper class in Manhattan. Trump's friends and former aides said that he thrived in the conflict, was a true rebel and was in the best shape against his opponents. People around Johnson believed that despite the prime minister's nonsense, he tended to avoid conflict; His political career was not so much a rebellion as a rise in the establishment.

'the similarity between Johnson and trump is that when things are bad for them, they are extremely dissatisfied, 'Sonia & middot, Johnson's biographer; Pernell said,