National Bureau of Statistics: the "comprehensive two child" policy has achieved remarkable results. China Economic Weekly
The overall two child effect is remarkable, and the new population of opening up the second child has increased
On August 22, the official website of the National Bureau of statistics released a series of reports on the steady growth of the total population and significant improvement of population quality -- the 20th of the economic and social development achievements in the 70th anniversary of the founding of new China. The report pointed out that after the implementation of the "comprehensive two child" policy, China's birth population was 17.86 million and 17.23 million respectively in 2016 and 2017, significantly higher than the average annual birth rate of 16.44 million during the 12th Five Year Plan period, The policy effect is remarkable.
The following is the full text of the report:
70 years since the founding of new China, China's total population has increased steadily and the quality of the population has improved significantly. Especially since the reform and opening up, the expanding scale of floating population and the continuously improving level of population urbanization have injected strong vitality into the sustained and healthy development of economy and society and made outstanding contributions to building a modern socialist power with Chinese characteristics. Since the eighteen Party's Congress, facing the new situation and new changes in population development, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core has made decisive decisions, coordinated planning, scientifically grasped the trend of population development, actively and effectively responded to risks and challenges, and made a major national strategic decision for balanced population development, and promoted a good situation of balanced development of economy, society and population.
1、 The total population grew steadily, and the characteristics of population development changed gradually
（1） The total population has changed from high-speed growth to steady growth.
In the 70 years since the founding of new China, China's total population has grown from 540 million in 1949 to nearly 1.4 billion in 2018, with an average annual growth rate of about 1.4%. The huge population has provided valuable human resources for China's economic take-off and laid a solid talent foundation for socialist modernization with Chinese characteristics. Since the founding of new China, China's population development has gone through a long and tortuous road, which can be roughly divided into four stages.
1. High growth stage (1949-1970). Before the founding of new China, population growth was restrained due to social unrest, slow economic development and backward medical conditions. After the founding of new China, social stability, economic development and medical improvement provided a basic guarantee for the rapid growth of population. From 1949 to 1970, China's population increased from 540 million when new China was founded to 830 million, with a net increase of 290 million in about 20 years. In addition to the short-term negative population growth due to natural disasters from 1960 to 1961, the annual population growth rate in this period was generally more than 2% and close to 3% in some years.
2. Regulated growth stage (1971-1980). In the 1970s, with the implementation of the family planning policy, the population growth rate decreased significantly, and the growth rate decreased rapidly from 2.7% in 1971 to 1.2% in 1980. However, due to the large population base, the net increase in population from 1971 to 1980 was still considerable. The total population of China increased from 850 million to 990 million, a net increase of 130 million.
3. Recovery stage of growth rate (1981-1990). In the 1980s, China implemented a very strict fertility policy and the fertility rate decreased. However, since the population born in the "fertility peak" successively entered the marriage and childbearing age after the founding of new China, the population growth rate rebounded briefly, reaching a peak of 1.7% in 1987. At this stage, China's total population increased from 1 billion in 1981 to 1.14 billion in 1990, a net increase of 140 million, with an average annual growth of 15.85 million, slightly higher than the 14.97 million from 1971 to 1980.
4. Steady growth stage (1991-2018). Due to the reduction of the number of women of childbearing age and the change of people's concept of marriage and childbearing, China's population growth rate has decreased steadily since 1991, and finally remained stable at a growth rate of about 0.5%. From 1991 to 2018, China's population increased by 8.78 million annually and 7.11 million annually since the beginning of the 21st century. The pressure on the total population has been reduced, and the structural problem has gradually become the focus of attention in the new era.
（2） The type of population reproduction has changed twice.
In the 70 years since the founding of new China, with the development of economy and society, the improvement of medical and health level and the change of national population policy, the type of population reproduction in China has changed twice.
At the beginning of the founding of new China, China's birth rate was 36.0 & permil;, The mortality rate was as high as 20.0 & permil;, The natural growth rate is 16.0 & permil;, The average life expectancy is only 35 years, which belongs to the traditional population reproduction type with high birth rate, high mortality rate and low natural growth rate. After the founding of new China, the social environment was restored to peace, people's living standards were continuously improved, and medical and health undertakings were gradually developed. By 1957, the population mortality rate had dropped to 10.8 & permil;, The natural growth rate rose to 23.2 & permil;, Average life expectancy rose to 57 years. With the rapid decline of mortality, the type of population reproduction in China has rapidly changed for the first time, entering a transitional stage of high birth rate, low mortality and high natural growth rate.
In the 1970s, the fertility rate was effectively controlled, and the type of population reproduction began to change for the second time. Before the 1970s, China maintained a high fertility level. From 1949 to 1969, the average total fertility rate of women was 5.8, and the average birth rate and natural growth rate were 33.9 & permil; And 20.8 & permil;. After entering the 1970s, the fertility level dropped rapidly. By 1977, the total fertility rate fell below 3.0. At the end of last century, the total fertility rate fell to about 1.8 and the birth rate fell to 15 & permil; Below, the natural growth rate decreased to 8 & permil; The average life expectancy in 2018 is 77 years. China's population reproduction type has entered the stage of low birth rate, low mortality and low natural growth rate, which is similar to modern economically developed and more developed countries.
The change of population reproduction type leads to the aging of population age structure. In 2000, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over reached 7.0%, and the proportion of the population aged 0-14 was 22.9%. The age structure of the elderly was initially formed, and China began to enter an aging society. In 2018, the proportion of China's population aged 65 and over reached 11.9%, and the proportion of people aged 0-14 fell to 16.9%. The degree of population aging continued to deepen. It took only about 18 years for China's population age structure to change from adult type to elderly type. The acceleration of population aging will increase the pressure on social security and public services, weaken the demographic dividend, and continue to affect social vitality, innovation power and potential economic growth rate. It is an important risk and challenge for population development in the new era.
（3） The fertility policy has been continuously improved to adapt to the changes in the population situation.
After the founding of new China, the excessively high birth rate and fertility rate brought about a surge in population, which put great pressure on economic and social development and resources and environment. In 1962, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council proposed to promote birth control in cities and densely populated rural areas and appropriately control population growth. In the 1970s, the State Council established the family planning leading group and put forward the "late, rare and less" population and family planning policy. China's population and family planning policy has begun to take shape.
In the early 1980s, China's population broke through the one billion mark. It is urgent to implement the fertility policy to control the excessive population growth. In September 1980, China's one-child family planning policy was officially introduced. Since April 1984, a fertility policy system has been gradually formed, which is "one child" in urban areas and "one child and a half" in rural areas, cared for by ethnic minorities and individuals, and there are differences between urban and rural areas, regions and ethnic groups. This fertility policy system basically continues until 2013.
The implementation of the family planning policy has eased the pressure on the total population. At the same time, with the improvement of the level of economic development and the acceleration of social transformation, people's fertility concept has changed greatly, the number of births has gradually decreased, and the problem of population structure has become a new challenge. Based on the new era and responding to new problems, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council scientifically grasp the law of population development, timely adjust Fertility Policies and promote balanced population development. On November 15, 2013, the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee deliberated and adopted the birth policy that couples with only one child can have two children. On October 29, 2015, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee clearly put forward that "adhere to the basic national policy of family planning, improve the population development strategy, and fully implement the policy that a couple can have two children." After the full implementation of the "two children" policy, in 2016 and 2017, China's birth population was 17.86 million and 17.23 million respectively, significantly higher than the average annual birth rate of 16.44 million during the 12th Five Year Plan period, and the policy effect was significant.
2、 The "demographic dividend" promotes sustained and healthy economic and social development, and the "talent dividend" paves the way for high-quality economic development and social harmony and progress
China is a developing country with a large population and rich labor resources. In the 70 years since the founding of new China, especially in the 40 years since the reform and opening up, the demographic dividend brought by the huge total labor force has promoted the sustainable and healthy development of China's economy and society. With the slowdown of China's population growth rate and the change of population structure, the reduction of the total population of working age has become a long-term trend, and the demographic dividend factor has gradually weakened. The "talent dividend" brought by the improvement of population cultural quality and health level will become an important basis for promoting China's high-quality economic development and social progress.
（1） The working age population still has potential.
After the founding of new China, with social stability and economic development, China's population has experienced a period of high growth. After entering the 1970s, under the joint action of vigorously promoting family planning and economic and social development, the population fertility level has rapidly changed from high to low, from the period of unplanned spontaneous high growth to the period of planned and controllable growth. However, due to the great inertia of population growth, the total population of the country has maintained a trend of continuous increase. Along with it, China's working age population aged 16-59 is also expanding. In 1953, the working age population aged 16-59 was 310 million, and in 1964 it was 353 million. After the reform and opening up, the data of the four censuses in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010 show that the size of China's working age population is 567 million, 699 million, 808 million and 916 million respectively. From 1982 to 1990, the working age population increased by 23.2%; In the 10 years from 1990 to 2000, it increased by 15.6%. Since 2000, the working age population has increased by 13.4% from 2000 to 2010, which is lower than the 10 years from 1990 to 2000, but the absolute increase brought by the huge population base is still very considerable. In 2012, China's total working age population reached a peak of 922 million, and then the increment changed from positive to negative, and the total entered the reduction stage. In 2018, it was 897 million, still maintaining the scale of nearly 900 million, and the absolute amount of labor resources is still huge.
At the same time, since the founding of new China 70 years ago, the party and government have attached great importance to talent training. With the implementation of the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education and strengthening the country with talents, the knowledge and skills level of China's working age population has been continuously improved. The average length of education of the working age population has increased from just over 8 years in 1982 to 10.63 years in 2018, providing a solid human foundation for building a large army of knowledge-based, skilled and innovative workers and a strong talent support for mass entrepreneurship and innovation.
（2） The education level of the population has increased significantly.
70 years since the founding of new China, China's education has developed vigorously and realized the historic transformation from a large population country to a large human resources country. At the beginning of the founding of new China, the quality of China's population was very low. 80% of the country's population was illiterate, and the primary school enrollment rate of school-age children was less than 20%. After the founding of new China, especially after the reform and opening up, the party and government attached great importance to education, and the state gave priority to education