Original title: the new LPR mechanism will not reduce the mortgage interest rate, 'housing without speculation' is still the core principle
Mortgage interest rates will not decline. What are the effects of the new LPR quotation
As early as August 17, when the reform plan for the formation mechanism of the quoted interest rate (LPR) in the loan market was announced, the market had paid close attention to how the interest rate of individual housing loans would be adjusted. Previously, the central bank pointed out that the addition of LPR varieties with a term of more than 5 years is to provide a reference for the interest rate pricing of long-term loans such as housing mortgage loans to banks, and also facilitate the smooth transition from the future stock long-term floating rate loan contract pricing benchmark to LPR. Some market participants believe that the mortgage interest rate may be reduced with the new LPR interest rate.
On August 20, the first LPR quotation under the new pricing mechanism was released - the one-year LPR was 10 basis points lower than the existing benchmark interest rate of one-year loans, and the LPR over five years was 5 basis points lower than the benchmark interest rate of loans over five years. The first quotation of the new LPR is lower than the benchmark loan interest rate. Will the mortgage interest rate be reduced?
In this regard, Liu Guoqiang, vice president of the people's Bank of China, responded at the regular policy briefing of the State Council that in the near future, the people's Bank of China will issue an announcement on the interest rate policy of individual housing loans. In this interest rate merger reform, the mortgage interest rate has changed from the reference benchmark interest rate to the reference LPR. The reference benchmark has changed, but the interest rate level cannot be reduced. Financial work should implement the target positioning of "real estate is not fried". At the same time, avoid instrumentalization of real estate and do not use it as a means to stimulate the economy, so as to ensure that the increment of housing loans does not expand and the interest rate of housing loans does not decline.
"This reform will improve the LPR formation mechanism, focusing on deepening the market-oriented reform of interest rates and using reform methods to reduce the financing costs of the real economy." Liu Guoqiang stressed.
The quoted price of LPR with a term of more than 5 years is 4.85%, and the interest margin with a term of 1 year is 60 basis points, which is larger than the interest margin (55 basis points) of the benchmark interest rate curve of the loan. The actual decline of LPR over 5 years is narrow, implying & lsquo; Housing is not fried & rsquo The policy principle of strengthening regulation and control. " Li Qilin, chief economist of lianxun securities, said.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline real estate, believes that considering the reduction of loan costs in the whole society and various policy constraints, there is limited room for personal mortgage interest rates to rise and fall, and maintaining stability will be the mainstream.
"The new LPR should ensure that it will not stimulate the real estate market. In the short term, the downward space of mortgage interest rate is very limited." Li Wanfu, an analyst at rong360 big data research institute, believes that, on the one hand, unlike the one-year LPR anchored medium-term lending facility (MLF), LPR over 5 years is quoted separately, and there is no strong 'reference frame' similar to MLF, which provides the possibility for the central bank to guide the housing loan interest rate alone. At the same time, the non market provident fund loan interest rate still needs the guidance of the central bank. In addition, from the quotation level, the LPR over 5 years is 4.85%. Although it is slightly lower than the benchmark interest rate of loans over 5 years, it is still 10% higher than the current benchmark interest rate (4.41%), that is, the hidden guiding interest rate level in the housing loan market.
At present, the idea of "housing without speculation" has been deeply rooted in various policies. Since this year, financial regulators have paid close attention to market trends, and the central bank has repeatedly stressed that it should adhere to the continuity and stability of real estate financial policies; The relevant person in charge of the cbcirc has also repeatedly said that it is clear that real estate finance is still the key field of risk prevention, strictly control speculative real estate loans, and issue documents to regulate real estate financing and curb chaos. Not only that, the regulation of local real estate market has been strengthened again and again. Therefore, the reform of LPR formation mechanism will not shake the policy tone of "no speculation in real estate" and "preventing real estate financial risks".
In fact, under the background of strict supervision, since May this year, some banks have quietly raised the interest rate of real estate loans and tightened the loan amount. According to financial 360 data, the national mortgage interest rate has entered a rebound stage in the second half of this year. In the second tier cities, most cities have raised the mortgage interest rate, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Dalian and Changsha have raised it many times recently, and some banks are short of credit, and even suspend the acceptance of mortgage business.
In addition, it is noteworthy that, unlike short-term loans, personal housing loans are mostly floating rate loan contracts. Must the interest rate of new personal housing loans be linked to LPR?
In this regard, sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the people's Bank of China, responded at the above briefing that banks should use LPR as the pricing benchmark in all kinds of loans. On the one hand, fixed rate loans should be priced with reference to LPR. On the other hand, LPR should be used as the benchmark of floating rate loan contracts in floating rate loan contracts.
Liu Guoqiang also stressed that after the reform, the pricing of various loans should fully refer to LPR, not some loans continue to refer to the benchmark interest rate, but some loans refer to the new LPR. In the process of promotion, the central bank will incorporate the LPR application and loan interest rate competition of banks into the macro Prudential assessment (MPA) and urge banks to use LPR pricing.
In addition, on how to change the stock of individual housing loans, the central bank also gave a clear reply in answering reporters' questions: in order to ensure a smooth transition, the stock loans are still implemented according to the original contract.