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The marriage rate of 77 million adults living alone reached an 11 year low. What impact does the low

(original title: the marriage rate hit an 11 year low, with 77 million adults living alone! What made them choose to be single?)

Xiao Yi, who works in a third tier city in Zhejiang, has been a little depressed recently. She is about to celebrate her 30th birthday. In the face of frequent 'urging marriage' from her family and friends, she feels more and more difficult to deal with.

Xiao Yi admitted that he used to feel free and carefree, and he didn't have the burden and responsibility for his family, especially his children, so he enjoyed being single. " But after living alone for a long time, I feel lonely now. I want to find someone to live with, but I suffer from the small social circle and can't find a suitable partner. "

In fact, there are many people who are similar to Xiao Yi. According to the statistics of the Ministry of civil affairs, there are more than 200 million single adults in China, including more than 77 million adults living alone.

Recently, the 2018 statistical bulletin on the development of Civil Affairs (hereinafter referred to as the bulletin) was released. According to the communique, in 2018, 10.139 million couples were registered according to law, a decrease of 4.6% over the previous year, and the marriage rate was 7.3 & permil;, It was 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous year, a new low since 2008.

Source: statistical bulletin of civil affairs development in 2018 issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs

The marriage rate hit an 11 year low

Marriage rate, divorce rate and other data have always been the most important indicators to observe the marriage age population, family and social status.

The marriage rate refers to the ratio of the number of married people to a certain range of population in a certain period (usually a year). The most common indicator of marriage rate is the total marriage rate, or marriage rate for short, when the number (or logarithm) of marriages in a certain period is compared with the total population in the same period.

The reporter combed the relevant statistical data of the Ministry of civil affairs in recent 11 years and found that taking 2013 as the watershed, from 2008 to 2018, the number of marriage pairs developed into an "inverted U", increasing year by year from 10.983 million pairs in 2008 to the peak of 13.469 million pairs in 2013; Since 2013, the number of married couples has decreased year by year and dropped to 10.139 million in 2018.

The marriage rate in these 11 years is basically consistent with this trend. Since 8.27 & permil; in 2008;, It has climbed year by year to 9.9 & permil; in 2013;, After reaching this peak, the marriage rate began to decline for five consecutive years, falling to 7.3 & permil; in 2018;. This figure has also become the lowest in 11 years.

In contrast, the divorce rate has continued to rise in recent years. According to the data of the bulletin, a total of 4.461 million couples went through divorce procedures according to law in 2018, an increase of 2.0% over the previous year, including 3.812 million couples registered by the civil affairs department and 649000 couples judged and mediated by the court. The divorce rate is 3.2 & permil;, Same as last year.

The reporter also noted that the bulletin shows the number of people of all ages in the marriage registration population. Among them, the registered marriage population aged 25-29 is the largest, accounting for 7.362 million, accounting for 36.3% of the total registered marriage population in 2018, followed by the age group aged 20-24, accounting for 21.5%.

Source: statistical bulletin of civil affairs development in 2018 issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs

Lawyers say the current marriage environment is not 'friendly' to women

Why does the marriage rate continue to decline? What do most of these unmarried people think?

In the eyes of netizens, most people who take the initiative to choose to be single always seem to shout 'one person is full, the whole family is not hungry' 'being single all the time'; Most of the passive single people sigh 'no energy, no time to fall in love', 'no house, no car, no deposit, what do you get married?'

Among the many singles interviewed by the reporter at random, many people said that love is the key. The current state is to love, but we can't find anyone who has the same "three views". We can't get married until we fall in love. " I can live alone. I won't get married for the sake of marriage. If two people live as happy as one, I will get married. " Said a woman who works in media in Beijing.

When asked whether the material conditions such as house and car are important on the premise of marriage, several respondents said, 'material is very important whenever and wherever'. One of the women said she didn't want to reduce the quality of life when she was single after marriage, 'if it makes me work harder after marriage, it certainly won't work.'

In fact, in recent years, women's willingness to get married has indeed shown a gradual downward trend. A set of data intuitively illustrates the change of women's view of marriage: in 1990, the number of unmarried women aged 30 ~ 35 accounted for only 0.6%; Today, the number of unmarried people accounts for 7%; Among women aged 35-40, the proportion of unmarried women increased from 0.3% to about 4%, an increase of more than 10 times.

Wu Jiezhen, a lawyer from Guangdong Guangqiang law firm specializing in marriage law, believes that the current marriage and love environment is not 'friendly' to women:

First of all, women realize that under the traditional family division of labor, they not only have to work, but also undertake a lot of housework and childbearing obligations.

Secondly, the new judicial interpretation of the marriage law strengthens the isolation of private property and opposes getting something for nothing. Although this is a kind of progress, objectively, because the wealth created by one party in marriage is easy to be hidden and transferred, moving to the workplace has become the most correct path for most women - only by making money and mastering the money in their own hands can they have the initiative.

Third, because of the traditional family division of labor, some employing enterprises are worried that women allocate a lot of time to the family and cannot work like men, which will virtually produce gender discrimination in the workplace. Thus, some women prefer to marry later or even not.

In Wu Jiezhen's view, it is precisely because some women think that the marriage and love environment is not friendly enough that they want to get more protection before marriage, such as high bride price, real estate certificate addition, etc. And this often exceeds the ability of many ordinary male families. Even if they have the will to get married, it is easy to 'explode' when talking about marriage.

Some netizens said that a house is the first thing to get married. A house of about 90 square meters in a third tier city costs about 900000 yuan (not including decoration), and a car (nearly 200000 yuan). Coupled with bride price gifts and banquet, it is enough to empty almost all the savings of an ordinary working family.

The number of marriageable population has decreased slightly in recent years

Xiao Jing, who is currently engaged in design work in Shanghai, admitted to reporters that the cost of living in Shanghai is relatively high and the pressure of life is also great. The current state is' can't afford to fall in love, can't afford to get married, can't earn money and can't afford to dream '. This also seems to confirm the obvious regional differences in the marriage rate from one side, that is, the more developed the economy, the lower the marriage rate.

According to the data, the lowest marriage rate in China in 2018 was only 4.4 & permil;, Zhejiang 5.9 & permil; The marriage rate in Guangdong, Beijing and Tianjin is also low. Other studies show that in economically developed provinces, the higher the house price, the lower the marriage rate.

From the perspective of population structure, experts believe that the decline in the number of marriageable people, the postponement of marriage age and the acceleration of urbanization are all the reasons for the gradual decline in the number of married people.

Yuan Xin, a professor at the Institute of population and development of Nankai University, said that the average age of first marriage is the highest ever. According to the latest statistics, the national average age of first marriage is about 25 ~ 26 years old, including 26 ~ 27 years old in cities and about 25 years old in rural areas.

From a national perspective, the current marriage age is concentrated between 24 and 30 years old. These people were born from 1989 to 1995, and the absolute number of births in these years itself has decreased compared with previous years.

In addition, the increase in the proportion of married people over the age of 30 is also a new factor leading to the decline in the proportion of married people aged 25 ~ 29. Statistics show that the number of people over the age of 30 in some areas has an obvious growth trend.

For example, the survey report on the development of women in Shanghai in the past 40 years of reform and opening up released by Shanghai women's Federation shows that by 2015, the average age of first marriage for men and women in Shanghai was 30.3 and 28.4 years respectively, an increase of 5.0 and 5.4 years respectively compared with 10 years ago.

Statistics from Nanjing Civil Affairs Bureau show that in 2015, the total average age of first marriage registration in Nanjing was 30.4 years old, and by 2017, the data reached 32.6 years old. In addition, according to the data of Jiangsu Provincial Department of civil affairs, in 2017, the average first marriage age of Jiangsu people was 34.2 years old, including 34.3 years old for women and 34.1 years old for men.

A low marriage rate will affect fertility

What impact will the low marriage rate have on social development?

Industry insiders believe that around the world, many economically developed cities have a certain phenomenon of "low desire society", one of which is the low marriage rate and low fertility rate. This phenomenon will not only accelerate the arrival of an aging society, but also reduce the degree of social prosperity, which should be vigilant.

The most direct problem caused by the low marriage rate is that the number of newborns will decrease. Data show that in 2017, China's population increased by 17.23 million, a decrease of 630000 over 2016; In 2016, China's total fertility rate (the average number of children per woman) was 1.7, which is far from the generation replacement level of 2.1 (the fertility level required to achieve population stability).

It is precisely because of this situation that Wang Liping, a professor at the school of law of Shandong University, recently published an article suggesting that the legal age of marriage should be appropriately reduced: men should not be earlier than 20 years old and women should not be earlier than 18 years old.

However, Wu Jiezhen believes that the low marriage rate is a manifestation of social progress and development. Because more and more people meet their material needs and have higher spiritual pursuit. This phenomenon will gradually appear only after the productivity is more and more developed.

He believes that the marriage and love environment consists of the legal environment and the mainstream culture of family division of labor. Only when this environment is more friendly to women can more women enter marriage. For example, men take the initiative to change the traditional family division of labor, share childcare responsibilities, share housework, or have the ability and willingness to ask for housekeeping, freeing women's time to pursue career. In this way, women may not have enough reason to ask for high betrothal gifts; In this way, discrimination against women in the workplace will also converge.

Another example is to establish a perfect divorce alimony system, so that the party who chooses to do housework can continue to receive the other party's economic support at the time of divorce; Establish a comprehensive system of spouse's right to know about property, so that the party engaged in housework can know each other's financial situation at any time, so as to ensure that marital property will not be transferred or hidden.

In the face of the current situation that the marriage rate has fallen again and again, many experts believe that this is the necessity of economic and social development to a certain stage, and there is no need to worry too much. In Yuanxin's view, whether it is late marriage or not, it is a choice made by young people from their own reality. The society should respect it and give young people more choice space.