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▲ trump made another bold statement: being president cost me $5 billion, but I don't care. Produced by Beijing News' our video '.
On August 16th, U.S. President Trump delivered a speech at a campaign rally in Manchester, saying, 'if for some reason I don't win the election, then the stock market will collapse. You have no choice but to vote for me. Whether you love me or hate me, you must vote for me '.
New tactics for seeking re-election by 'intimidating election'
Trump's speech is essentially a "intimidating election", which is also his new way to seek re-election.
When trump first sought the presidency, he told voters, "if you choose me, I will make America greater.". Now it has changed, telling voters more is' if you don't vote for me, the U.S. stock market will collapse '.
Compared with ordinary voters, economy is more real than politics. Every presidential candidate will say a lot of beautiful and big words, but what voters want to see is whether these can be implemented in the end, especially at the economic level.
Trump followed this rule when he was elected in 2016. So many mainstream media failed to predict Trump's election, but trump was elected because voters who failed to improve their interests in previous years voted for trump.
After several years of development, trump fulfilled many of the promises he had made to voters, and achieved the reduction of unemployment and economic growth in the United States. After the initial panic of the stock market, the so-called "trump bull" came.
From an economic perspective, whether the US economy benefited from the Obama era or the earlier presidency, the results were reflected in Trump's first term. He took all his achievements into his own name and used these economic achievements to scare voters, which means - these are all my achievements. If you don't elect me, these achievements will disappear. In a sense, this is the domestic election version of Trump's "extreme pressure".
Recession risk of new ways of re-election
The problem is that at present, this kind of intimidating election is in a bad situation.
▲ Trump: we have increased tariffs by $60 billion, and American consumers are willing to pay the price. Produced by Beijing News' our video '.
On August 15, the Wall Street Journal published an editorial warning again that the US government's tariff policy and the resulting uncertainty will slow down or even fall into recession. This is the second time in two weeks that the newspaper issued a similar warning. Last week, the editorial of Navarro recession criticized Peter & middot, director of the White House National Trade Commission; Navarro warned that its "disorderly trade offensive" could slow the U.S. economy and worsen into a "Navarro recession".
On August 14, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds was lower than that of two-year Treasury bonds for the first time since 2007. This situation where the yield of long-term treasury bonds was lower than that of short-term treasury bonds was often regarded as an early warning signal of economic recession. As investors flocked to safe U.S. government bonds, the yield of 30-year treasury bonds fell below 2% for the first time in history, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds fell below 1.5%.
Although this is not an iron law, the market has begun to worry.
Prior to this, on July 31, the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut the target range of benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2% - 2.25%, which was the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve since the 2008 financial crisis. At the press conference, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that this is not a political decision, but an "insurance interest rate cut".
He said: "the U.S. economic outlook is still good, the economic growth in the first half of the year is very stable, and the U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter is close to expectations. Employment growth was strong in June, and the salary level is increasing, especially for low wage jobs. However, considering the weak global economic growth, uncertain trade situation and inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve will take appropriate actions to maintain economic expansion. This interest rate cut is for insurance and risk management reasons, hoping to better deal with the potential downward risks of the economy and achieve the 2% inflation target. "
Obviously, the first sentence is basically Mandarin, and the second sentence is the focus, otherwise there will be no action.
The effectiveness of 'intimidating elections' depends on the speed of economic stagnation
Navarro, director of the White House National Trade Commission, has been called "the hawk among the Hawks" by the media. Recently, he pieced together a so-called "seven crimes" for China, which has a great posture of not letting the trade dispute end.
However, judging from the recent performance of the U.S. capital market, every time the United States announces new tariff increase measures, the capital market will go down, otherwise it will go up. Under this pressure, trump will find an excuse to suspend the implementation of some measures.
Of course, Trump's re-election depends not only on the economy, but also on various factors, including whether his competitors are strong or not. However, the effectiveness of intimidating elections largely depends on the speed of economic stagnation or even recession in the United States. If the speed is too fast, voters will be more likely to vote with their feet.
The website of the Washington Post reported on August 15 that the nine major economies in the world are in recession or on the verge of recession, including Germany, Britain, Italy, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Singapore, South Korea and Russia, which makes people increasingly worried that the global economic slowdown may lead the United States into economic contraction.
Therefore, whether trump can make voters who love him or hate him vote for him will be tested in the near future.