Original title: bottom line warning 'no agreement to leave Europe' may make the pound fall to its lowest level in 34 years
(daily chart of GBP / USD)
CCTV news: according to a survey of analysts, if Britain does not reach an agreement to withdraw from the EU, the pound will fall to the lowest level since 1985. Now it seems that this possibility is greater than six months ago.
According to a survey of 13 banks, at present, 30% of the UK may withdraw from the EU without signing the brexit agreement in October, which is more than three times that of a similar survey in February. This result will devalue the pound by more than 9% to about 1.1 U.S. dollars, the lowest level in 34 years.
Since Britain postponed the original deadline for brexit at the end of March, the exchange rate of sterling against the US dollar has fallen by nearly 7%, and Mark & middot, governor of the Bank of England; Carney previously said that the change of sterling exchange rate is part of the shock absorption function, and the possibility of the Bank of England intervening in the foreign exchange market is very low. British Prime Minister Johnson issued an "ultimatum" to the EU last week, saying that he would not hold talks with EU leaders unless EU leaders changed their position. Although only a few people in Parliament support brexit without an agreement, and parliamentarians have said they will try to prevent Johnson from pursuing this result, strategists believe that there is a risk of accidents.