&# 8203;&# 8203;&# 8203;&# 8203;&# 8203;&# 8203; Original title: read the article to understand whether the RMB broke 7 against the US dollar is a good thing or a bad thing. How does it affect your money bag?
Focus
At 9:33 a.m. on August 5, the onshore RMB 'broke seven' to 7.0056, after the offshore RMB reported 7.0803. On August 5, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar fell below the 6.90 mark.
In fact, there is not much difference between 7 and 6.9 or 7.1 in terms of exchange rate. The most important difference between them is a psychological price and market behavior.
Outbound group (traveling abroad or studying abroad). For students who go abroad to play or study in the United States, it means that the same RMB will exchange a lot less dollars than before, which will cause a shortage of funds for those who go abroad.
The picture shows the trend of onshore RMB
Tencent Financial News on August 5, as of 9:33, the onshore RMB fell below 7 yuan against the US dollar.
As of 9:18, the offshore RMB fell below the 7 yuan mark against the US dollar, with a minimum of 7.0451.
The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.9225 today, down 229 points.
The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar fell below the 6.90 mark for the first time since December last year.
Affected by the decline in peripheral markets, the call auction inertia of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets opened low in the morning, and the Shanghai index fell 0.46% to 2854 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 0.47% to 9093 points; The gem index fell 0.28% to 1552 points. From the disk, titanium dioxide, etc and pork rose against the market; Insurance, brokerage and other large financial sectors led the decline.
In the offshore market last Friday, the RMB further depreciated, and the US dollar / RMB rose above 6.9 yuan to reach 6.9769 yuan, the weakest level of the RMB since November last year. In the domestic market, the US dollar / RMB rose to 6.9360 yuan, and the RMB / US dollar depreciated by 0.6%, the largest one-day decline of the RMB in two and a half months.
Earlier on Friday, China set the daily US dollar / RMB central parity rate on the domestic market at 6.8996 yuan, slightly higher than the previous day. China's official setting of the daily US dollar / RMB central parity is partly based on the closing price of the previous day, and the US dollar / RMB is allowed to float within the range of two percentage points above and below the central parity.
Since December last year, the Central Bank of China's US dollar / RMB exchange rate has never been higher than 6.9 yuan.
1、 Why are many people afraid that the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB will break 7?
The pass of RMB exchange rate 7 tests the confidence of the market: if it is lower than 7, it indicates that the RMB exchange rate is generally in a controllable and stable range; If it exceeds 7, it indicates that cross-border capital flows, imports and foreign reserves will fluctuate to varying degrees.
In fact, there is not much difference between 7 and 6.9 or 7.1 in terms of exchange rate. The most important difference between them is a psychological price and market behavior.
In fact, the RMB exchange rate also follows such a psychological logic. As long as the exchange rate is controlled within 7, the market's expectation of RMB devaluation will not be too great. Once the psychological threshold of 7 is broken, the market will think that there will be a lot of room for RMB devaluation in the future, and the market has always pursued the rise and killed the fall. Once the RMB breaks through the threshold of 7, There will be a lot of funds to short the RMB. At that time, China's exchange rate control may even fail. Once the exchange control fails, the pressure of RMB devaluation will rise sharply.
On May 26, 2017, the central bank launched the counter cyclical factor of the central parity rate for the first time. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar continued to strengthen, and the RMB basket exchange rate hit the bottom and rebounded strongly; By January 2018, after the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar appreciated to 6.44 from 6.88 in May 2017, the central bank announced the suspension of the counter cyclical factor; In the following months, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar once rose to between 6.2-6.3.
In July 2005, China began to implement the floating exchange rate system, which has opened the prelude to the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. The floating exchange rate has released China's growth dividend for decades, and the RMB has appreciated all the way. By August 2008, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar had appreciated from 8:1 to 6.8:1, with an appreciation rate of 15%, hovering near the 7 pass.
2、 Is the RMB breaking 7 a good thing or a bad thing?
Tan Yaling: whether the RMB 'breaking 7' is a good thing or a bad thing must be demonstrated clearly
For the future trend of RMB, Tan Yaling, chief economist of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, pointed out in mid July that the exchange rate should be evaluated from the perspective of the market, so that enterprises will be relatively well prepared. At the same time, it must be demonstrated whether the RMB 'breaking 7' is a good thing or a bad thing. If it was too sensitive in the past, its sensitivity should be diluted.
Tan Yaling pointed out that the range span of RMB fluctuation will be larger and larger, and the test for enterprises will be larger and larger. It is necessary to evaluate the exchange rate from the perspective of the market, so that enterprises will be relatively well prepared.
Sheng Songcheng: at present, the RMB exchange rate breaking '7' does more harm than good
Sheng Songcheng, former director of the investigation and Statistics Department of the people's Bank of China, said in a document in May that the current RMB exchange rate breaking '7' does more harm than good. If the exchange rate falls below the key point, it may have a great impact on market confidence, increase the pressure of capital outflow, and even 'give people a handle' in the future China US economic and trade negotiations, making the problem more complex and leading to the escalation of trade frictions.
At present, the United States does not list China as a currency manipulator. In fact, the sharp depreciation of the RMB is also what the United States does not want. What's more, we can't continuously rely on low prices to gain competitive advantage. It is difficult to encourage enterprises to improve product quality and core competitiveness by allowing the devaluation of RMB. Of course, we should not allow the sharp appreciation of the exchange rate, and we should also avoid the overshoot of the RMB exchange rate in the direction of appreciation.
At present, China's central bank adheres to a prudent monetary policy, which should be moderately loose, control the main gate of money supply, do not engage in "flood irrigation", and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The growth rate of broad money m2 and social financing scale should match the nominal growth rate of GDP. The combination of prudent monetary policy and positive fiscal policy has promoted the growth of domestic demand, and is conducive to the export and GDP growth of our trading partners. It is also conducive to domestic risk prevention, reform and steady growth. It also helps to avoid asset price bubbles and lead to negative spillover effects.
Yu Yongding: won't the RMB exchange rate break 7 bring disaster?
Yu Yongding, member of the academic department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that if China wants to maintain the independence of monetary policy and maintain economic growth, it may adopt further monetary easing policy. Once we adopt such a policy, sooner or later we will face the problem of whether to allow the RMB to break 7. In Yu Yongding's view, there will be no major disaster for the RMB exchange rate from 7 to 7.1, and the exchange rate should be allowed to shake around 7.
"The current macroeconomic situation requires us to make the exchange rate more flexible." Yu Yongding pointed out that unless the situation of foreign trade and economic growth improves, sooner or later China will implement a more relaxed fiscal and monetary policy, and such a policy will conflict with the goal of "safeguarding 7".
In his view, worrying that the RMB breaking 7 will bring 'disaster' is completely self frightening. Yu Yongding does not believe in the view that if the RMB breaks 7, there will be panic and a large amount of capital flight, the situation will be out of control. He believes that China has a current account surplus and will not have great exchange pressure.
Yu Yongding said that capital flight is not as easy as in 2015 and 2016. One part of the cross-border capital flow is legal. For example, the repatriation of profits by foreign capital and the withdrawal of foreign capital are legal. There is no problem. However, this is a long-term decision, and foreign capital will not withdraw a large amount of profits in the short term.
Yu Yongding explained that in the world economy, price is a lever for adjustment, and so is the exchange rate. Exchange rate is an important adjustment mechanism to stabilize capital flows, stabilize cross-border financial flows, and make our current account and our capital account, in general, tend to balance the balance of payments.
"Now let it shake between 7, and 7.1 and 7.2 return to 6.9. In this way, there will be no big problem for everyone to adapt." If the situation worsens, we need to adopt large-scale stimulus policies. " Instead of waiting to break 7 at that time, let it shake here now. It's controllable. We should use a more natural and relaxed psychology to look at the changes of exchange rate. 7. 7.01 and 7.02 are no different from 6.9 and 6.95. We should have confidence in China's economic development. "
3、 Impact of RMB breaking 7 on stock market, gold and bitcoin
The devaluation of RMB has a wide impact on the market. The specific impacts are as follows:
1. International gold rose sharply
International Gold broke the $1450 mark and rose 0.7% during the day. Risk aversion increased, gold concept stocks rose, humon shares rose by more than 8%, Yintai resources and Shandong gold rose by more than 5%, and Hunan gold, Chifeng gold and CICC gold followed suit.
2. Textile and other sectors welcome good news
The devaluation of the RMB has a great positive impact on exports. Generally speaking, textile (for every 1% depreciation of RMB, the sales profit margin of textile and garment industry will increase by 2% to 6%), home appliances, overseas project construction (most overseas contracts are denominated in US dollars and RMB is the bookkeeping unit), and more overseas businesses will directly benefit from the depreciation of RMB.
Relevant concept stocks are as follows:
Huafang Co., Ltd.: the company is mainly engaged in the fine processing of cotton, chemical fiber textile and printing and dyeing, and the production, processing and sales of cotton and chemical fiber products, clothing and apparel. In 2018, the revenue from overseas sources accounted for 84.16% of the total revenue.
Fengzhu Textile: for every 1% depreciation of RMB, the sales profit margin of textile and garment industry increases by 2% to 6%. The company is mainly engaged in knitting and weaving, dyeing and finishing processing, bleaching and dyeing bobbin yarn, shoe production, etc.
Nanfang Co., Ltd.: its main business is import and export trade business and domestic bulk trade business, with European and American business accounting for 42.8%
Jialinjie: the company is a textile and fabric production company. The 2018 semi annual report shows that the company's export revenue is 341 million, accounting for 86% of the operating revenue.
Huasheng Co., Ltd.: mainly engaged in Ramie and bamboo fiber textiles, accounting for 80.9% of the export sales in the annual report of 17 years
Modern Avenue: an enterprise specializing in the management of canudilo brand high-grade men's clothing. Its products cover nine categories, including suits, shirts, jackets and windbreaker. In 2018, overseas revenue accounted for 56.50% of the total revenue.
Yingke medical: a supplier of comprehensive medical care products, mainly including disposable PVC and nitrile gloves. In 2018, overseas revenue accounted for 96.39% of the total revenue. On May 13, he said on the interactive platform that more than 95% of the company's products are exported and settled in US dollars. The sharp depreciation of RMB will have a positive impact on the company's performance.
The same shares: mainly engaged in the research, production and marketing of security video monitoring products, hard disk video recorders, cameras and video monitoring management platform. In 2018, the revenue from overseas sources accounted for 92.97% of the total revenue.
Fengshen Co., Ltd.: mainly engaged in the export business of tires and related technologies produced by the enterprise. The company's products are the main supporting products of transportation and engineering vehicles, which are exported to more than 140 countries and regions on five continents such as America and Europe. In 2018, overseas revenue accounted for 41.27% of the total revenue.
Galaxy magnet (superimposed super high-speed rail concept), Zhaoxin Co., Ltd. (superimposed Baoneng placards), Chuanyi technology, Xinghui precision, Zhejiang Dingli, Shidai new material, Dengyun Co., Ltd. and sujiaoke
Zhongyuan home: mainly engaged in the R & D, design, production and sales of sofa. The product sales are mainly OEM, mainly sold to overseas markets such as the United States. In 2017, the overseas market revenue was 782 million yuan, accounting for 99.90% of the total revenue.
Yanjiang Co., Ltd.: the company is a high-quality enterprise of diapers in China. Its positioning is