People's life is very short. Going to school, working, getting married, having children, retiring and taking care of themselves are all standard life. Most people go through this life step by step. However, it seems that more and more people are not married and have no children nowadays & hellip& hellip;
Recently, two sets of data have been released, one is the birth rate in 2018, the other is the marriage rate, which coincides with a new low.
Marriage rate
In 2018, the national marriage rate was 7.2 & permil;, It is the lowest since 2013. The more developed the economy, the lower the marriage rate. For example, the marriage rate in Shanghai and Zhejiang was only 4.4 & permil; in 2018 5.9‰， The marriage rate in Guangdong, Beijing and Tianjin is also low.
birth rate
Nationally, the birth rate in 2018 was 10.94 & permil;, Compared with 12.43 & permil in 2017; Affected by this, the national birth population in 2018 was 15.23 million, a decrease of 2 million over the previous year. The birth rate has also become the lowest in history since 1949.
Why?
Don't want to get married and have children?
The national marriage rate was 9.9% in 2013, 9.6% in 2014, 9% in 2015, 8.3% in 2016, 7.7% in 2017, and continued to decline in 2018.
The reason why the marriage rate has been declining again and again is related to factors such as the decline of the total population in recent years.
It is understood that the working age population has declined rapidly in recent years, with a decline of 35 million every year. Reflected in the number of people suitable for marriage, it has also decreased rapidly in recent years, and the decline of birth population is consistent with the downward trend of marriage rate.
The marriage rate is declining and the fertility rate is not optimistic.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the national birth rate in 2018 was 10.94 & permil;, This is the lowest value in history since 1949. The situation is similar in all provinces, and the birth rate shows a downward trend. Among them, Shandong is no longer the province with the highest birth rate in China, and the birth rate in 2018 was 13.26 & permil;, More than 4 percentage points lower than the previous year.
Huang Kuangshi, associate researcher of China population and Development Research Center, said that the number of married and childbearing women of school age is decreasing and the level of education is improving, which has led to a decline in the proportion of married and childbearing children.
The more developed the economy, the lower the marriage rate and birth rate
The data show that the marriage rate and birth rate in economically developed areas are not high.
At the end of 2018, the marriage rate in Shanghai and Zhejiang was the last two in China, and the marriage rate in Shanghai was 4.4 & permil;, The lowest in the country. In addition, the marriage rate in developed coastal areas such as Tianjin, Guangdong and Beijing is also low.
The areas with the highest marriage rate are underdeveloped areas such as Tibet, Qinghai, Anhui and Guizhou. The marriage rate in Guizhou reached 11.1 & permil; in 2018;, The country is ahead. The difference between the regions with the highest and lowest marriage rates in China is more than double.
Qinghai, Guangxi, Ningxia and other regions have the highest birth rates in China. In contrast, the birth rates in developed regions are generally relatively low, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Northeast China. In 2018, the birth rates in Liaoning, Tianjin and Shanghai were only 6.39 & permil 6.67‰ And 7.2 & permil;, Only about half of Qinghai, Guangxi and other places.
The cost of getting married and raising children is rising, and there is great pressure on life
For marriage itself, it is certainly not a simple combination of two people. It actually involves many aspects. It is a combination of various resources, and the situation is very complex.
With China's per capita GDP approaching us $10000 and gradually reaching the level of high-income countries, it is a normal phenomenon that the marriage rate is getting lower and lower. Because economic development and urbanization have a 'double squeeze' effect on marriage intention. The increasing economic conditions give people the freedom not to marry; In addition, the impact of urbanization on the marriage rate, busy work, tight time and high house prices are the most important factors.
In the 1970s, many couples spent only 100 yuan on marriage, but today, decades later, 1 million yuan is just enough to meet the marriage 'threshold' in some cities at best. In 40 years, the cost of marriage has increased nearly 10000 times!
Today, with high house prices, a suite is often millions. Even if you empty six wallets, you can't get back a daughter-in-law. People in big cities have a fast pace of life and great economic pressure. Of course, their willingness to marry is not high. " Life is stressful, and more and more people lack love. "
Marriage between two people in cities does not necessarily reduce the burden, but it will increase the burden after having children. Consistent with the cost of marriage, the cost of raising children is also rising.
With the development of economy and the increasingly fierce educational competition environment, the concept of eugenics has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Now it has long been different to raise a child. Many people believe that it is better not to have children when they are born without support or infertility. Nowadays, raising children is not only full and warm, but also a high-quality 'raising method'.
High parenting costs, shortage of public service resources and great pressure on women's career development are all factors affecting people's reproductive willingness and reproductive behavior, among which economic factors have a relatively large impact. A couple living in the city, if they have two children, if only according to the general wage level, it is actually more difficult to support.
Some netizens joked that 'what is missing is not milk powder money, but school district room' and 'children are not what you want to have, you can have if you want to have'.
"Urging marriage" and "expediting" have become a tug of war between young people and their elders. One side is persistent but not willing to urge, and the other side is unwilling to compromise and delay.
In the post-80s and 90s, marriage is not a necessity, and children are no longer the way to realize self-worth. What is in front of them is a more severe living situation. The post-80s and 90s are in the stage of career start or rapid growth. Under this background, people have to flinch from the huge time and energy cost brought by operating a marriage and raising a child. Especially for women, the opportunity cost of raising children is greater, which directly affects work and promotion opportunities.
Moreover, many people do not have children out of a selfish idea, but a thoughtful worry. Without ensuring the basic financial basis for raising children, they will choose to postpone the birth of children for a few years. It's not difficult to have a baby, but it's difficult to raise a baby.