Original title: Maotai's share price just broke 1000 yuan. China's stock king should not be a distillery
The share price broke thousands! Just now, Maotai's share price hit a new high.
Maotai, the most magical stock in China's stock market (this paper specifically refers to the mainland stock market). Since its listing, Maotai's share price has risen more than 100 times. With Maotai becoming the king, there are not only the pursuit of the market, but also doubts and bad mouthing.
Should the king of China's stock market be a winery?
1. What is the concept of 1000 yuan stock price
What is the concept of stock price breaking thousands? In China's stock market, the stock price is second only to Maotai
Changchun hi tech, the price is 324 yuan, only one-third of Maotai. Most stock prices remain in double digits.
In early June this year, a securities company gave a target price of 1150 yuan in Maotai, that is, 1000 yuan is not the top.
Another interesting phenomenon is that if we lengthen the axis and put it in the dimension of time, we will find that the appreciation rate of Maotai's stock price will even far exceed the appreciation rate of house prices.
(trend of Maotai stock price since 2015)
In 2015, China's real estate market ushered in a new round of sharp rise. The average house price in Beijing rose from 37261 yuan / Ping to 59809 yuan / Ping, nearly 1.5 times.
Maotai's share price in January 2015 was 171 yuan, but now it is 1000 yuan, up six times. It can be said that investing in Maotai stocks makes more money than buying a house.
At the same time, the ex factory price of Maotai also increased from 1299 yuan the year before last to 1499 yuan.
(selling price on Maotai official website: 1499)
In the market, the actual selling price of Maotai has long been more than 1800 yuan, and it is difficult to find a bottle. Many dealers said that there is no wine to sell, and even many scalpers began to fry Maotai. For details, see the article "speculation in Maotai by scalpers, making money much faster than real estate speculation" (the background replies to the keyword "speculation in Maotai" to get the article).
(circle of friends of Maotai dealers)
A bottle of wine, 1800 yuan; One share, 1000 yuan.
People can't help asking: why is a bottle of wine so expensive? How can a winery become the king of China's stock market?
2. Why is Maotai's share price high
In the eyes of Warren Buffett, investing in stocks is equivalent to investing in a company. As long as the company can make money, investors can get dividends and maximize profits.
Enterprises with good benefits will always be favored by the market. Hyped concept stocks can hardly stand the test of the market.
Guizhou Maotai's high share price is directly linked to performance.
The benefits of Maotai are obvious to all. Its net profit and gross profit margin are the first in the same industry. It can be said that Maotai is the company with the most stable fundamentals in the liquor industry.
According to the financial report data of Maotai, the annual net profit in 2018 was 35.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, higher than the previously issued guideline of 34.093 billion yuan. At the beginning, Maotai distillery basically makes 100 million a day!
Last year, the financial report said that the platform also used a chart to explain how good the financial statements of Moutai, Guizhou were.
Outstanding performance and profitability are the main reasons why Maotai is recognized by the market.
The unique investment value is also the unique competitiveness of Maotai.
In the article "speculation in Maotai by scalpers is much faster than real estate speculation" (the background replies to the keyword "speculation in Maotai" to obtain the article), I analyzed the reasons for the high price of Maotai liquor, that is, I have the triple attributes of consumer goods, gifts and investment goods--
Consumer goods and gifts are well understood. Tobacco and wine have always been the hard currency for Chinese gifts. Maotai is also known as' national wine ', which is naturally the best choice for gifts.
Maotai liquor has another feature. The older it is, the more fragrant it is, and the longer it is, the better. This financial attribute of 'maintaining and increasing value' gives Maotai the attribute of investment.
The output of Maotai is limited every year. Every bottle you drink will be one less. This scarcity also makes the price of old Maotai rise.
In this way, Maotai has evolved from a pure consumer goods to a very strange investment goods.
In 2001, the price of gold was about 80 yuan per gram, and the terminal price of Maotai was 220-260 yuan. By 2018, the price of gold had risen to about 300 yuan per gram, while the terminal price of Maotai had risen to 1500-1800 yuan.
(price change of Maotai liquor over the years)
In other words, investing in gold is better than buying Maotai.
Of course, there are deeper reasons for the strength of Maotai's stock price, which is related to the changes in the development stage of China's economy - the era of incremental development has passed, and the era of stock competition is coming.
In the era of incremental development, the market is booming and the cake is growing. All wine enterprises only need to step on the rhythm of the market, they can 'rise with the tide' and share the cake.
In the era of stock competition, the cake is so big. If all liquor enterprises want to survive and develop, they must grab other people's cakes. Liquor, especially high-end Baijiu, has a high threshold. It is almost impossible to overtake corners. The final pattern of industry competition is often that the strong are always strong.
Once this trend becomes the consensus of the industry, the capital will be concentrated to the leader, and Maotai 1000 yuan share price will be born.
3. Give technology stocks a chance
Maotai's share price has broken thousands for its own internal reasons.
The question is, should the king of China's stock market be a winery?
Take a look at the U.S. stock market. The highest share price in the United States is Berkshire under Buffett, with a share price of more than $300000. Because of the aura of God, the two cannot be compared.
From the perspective of market value, we may be able to see the development trend of the stock markets of the two countries.
Most of the top 10 companies in the global market capitalization top 100 list are listed in the United States. Therefore, most of these enterprises are also the companies with the highest market capitalization in the U.S. stock market.
(PwC's top 10 companies with global market capitalization in 2018)
These enterprises have one characteristic. Except Berkshire, others are high-tech enterprises with long R & D technology.
In contrast, China's A-share market,
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, PetroChina, Agricultural Bank of China, Guizhou Maotai, Bank of China, Ping An of China
It ranks among the top 6 in market value, of which 3 are bank stocks, one is oil, one is wine, and one is insurance. There is no figure of a science and technology enterprise.
In other words, technology stocks did not get their due position in China's stock market.
On the one hand, excellent technology companies are listed overseas; On the other hand, China's stock market has not created a good environment for technology stocks.
Compared with traditional industries, China's science and technology enterprises start late and are greatly affected by policies. Investors are unwilling and dare not invest. The strange emotional atmosphere in China's stock market has also affected the investment environment.
Some technology enterprises, with a PPT or a concept, are connected to dozens of trading boards, and enterprises that do R & D in a down-to-earth manner are often 'few'.
Xiaomi and Tencent chose Hong Kong, Baidu and Netease chose the United States, and Huawei simply did not go public. Many excellent technology companies are not listed on the mainland. A very important factor is that they are afraid of being influenced by the mood of the market.
Unhealthy market + unhealthy mood form a vicious circle, which leads to the passive situation of technology stocks and the choice dilemma of investors.
The primary task of the stock market is to solve the problem of enterprise capital turnover and support the development and growth of enterprises. China has Moutai, but Baijiu can not produce scientific and technological value. China's stock market should provide sufficient support for the development and growth of China's science and technology enterprises.
The Iron Throne of China's stock market should be reserved for high-tech enterprises.
Finally, when will Huawei go public?