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Original title: the house price index of 70 cities was released in May: the increase of third tier cities exceeded that of first tier cities
On June 18, the National Bureau of statistics released the statistical data on the changes of commercial housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in May 2019.
The sales price of new commercial housing in the four first tier cities increased by 0.3% month on month, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 0.6%, 0.8% and 0.4% respectively, and Shanghai decreased by 0.1%.
The sales price of second-hand houses increased by 0.1% month on month, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing and Shenzhen were flat, Shanghai rose 0.1% and Guangzhou decreased 0.3%.
The sales price of newly-built commercial houses in 31 second tier cities increased by 0.8% month on month, the same as that of the previous month; The sales price of second-hand houses rose by 0.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price of new commercial housing in 35 third tier cities increased by 0.8% month on month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month; The sales price of second-hand houses rose by 0.6%, the same as last month.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, believes that at present, house prices still have the characteristics of "easy rise and difficult fall, more rise and less fall, long rise and short fall, fast rise and slow fall". Although the housing transaction volume in the third and fourth tier cities has fallen, the price itself will not fall like a cliff, and it is most likely to maintain a small cooling trend in part or in part. In addition, the year-on-year growth rate of Xi'an has been ranked first in the country in the last six months, and the subsequent house prices need to be actively controlled.
House price index
From the house price index data, the price index of newly-built commercial housing in 70 cities in China increased by 0.7% month on month and 11.3% year-on-year in May. Among them, the month on month growth rate has expanded compared with April, indicating that the driving force of house price rise in May is still relatively strong; The year-on-year growth data has some subtle changes. The year-on-year growth has continued to expand in the past 13 months, and has narrowed slightly at present. This shows that with the continued control of house prices, the year-on-year growth of house prices in some cities may also change.
Lifting City
From the number of cities with rising and falling house prices, the number of cities with rising house prices was 67, which remained flat compared with 67 in April. The data from January to may show that the number of cities with rising house prices is still large. Recently, there has been a decline in house prices in some cities, but on the whole, house prices still have the characteristics of "easy rise and difficult fall, more rise and less fall, long rise and short fall, fast rise and slow fall". With the tightening of the follow-up financial loan policy, it is not ruled out that the number of cities will decrease.
City ranking
From the list of cities with month on month rise in house prices, Xi'an was the city with the largest month on month increase in house price index in May. In fact, Xi'an has issued policies to control the order of housing transactions, which fully reflects that there are still various unstable factors in the current real estate market. It is worth noting that the year-on-year growth rate of Xi'an has been ranked first in the country in the last six months. Based on these two data, the subsequent house prices in Xi'an really need to be actively controlled.
First, second and third tier cities
From the month on month growth data of house prices in the first, second and third tier cities in May, they were 0.4%, 0.7% and 0.7% respectively. From such month on month growth data, compared with the data in April, the first tier cities decreased slightly, the second tier was flat, and the third tier expanded slightly. Among them, the third tier cities deserve attention. Although the market believes that the third and fourth tier cities are cooling this year, from the perspective of house price index, the increase of house price is not significantly narrowed, or even greater than that of first tier cities. Previously, the phenomenon of steep decline in house prices in cities such as Enshi, Hubei Province, should be said to be unrepresentative or objective. In other words, although the housing transaction volume in the third and fourth tier cities has fallen, the price itself will not fall like a cliff. Most likely, it will partially or maintain a small cooling trend.