As a team that has followed the pharmacy industry for a long time and strategically recommended the pharmacy sector for a long time, we think it is necessary to further explain these issues to you. Our conclusion is that the separation of medicine is the general trend of today's society. Social security superimposes tax reform, positive and negative offset, and the profit margin of pharmacies will not be affected, And if some pharmacies convert to small-scale taxpayers, the tax benefits will be greater. Individual pharmacies will not be closed.
After the implementation of the new policy of social security tax reform, how much impact will it have on manpower intensive pharmacies? Will it affect the profit margin?
Will classified management be promoted nationwide? How are things going? The electronic supervision code is proposed again. Where will the operation of pharmacies go in the future? What will be the impact of the introduction of policies on pharmacies?
Xingzheng medicine: special report on pharmacies: the policy has limited impact on pharmacies and is optimistic for a long time
Key investment points
Recently, industrial policies have been issued in many ways, and chain pharmacies have triggered heated discussions in the market, mainly focusing on the following points:
First of all, our conclusion is positive about whether the outflow of prescriptions will occur, which is also the most important long logic of pharmacies. The essence of supporting the outflow of prescriptions is the pressure of medical insurance fee control (separation of medicine promotes drug price competition, resulting in drug price reduction) + reflecting the value of medical services (avoiding 'supporting medicine with medicine'). Fee control is the main theme of medical reform in the future, so the outflow of prescriptions is also an inevitable trend.
In terms of pharmacy policy changes, we will analyze them in the following four points:
1) Social Security Fund: Recently, two policies have attracted attention, one is the "reform of tax collection system" and the other is the "increase of social security base". The payment and base adjustment of social security fund are not a foregone conclusion. Assuming that social security is paid according to the full salary standard (originally the basic salary standard, about 50-60% of the full salary standard), it will have a certain impact on the social security burden of drugstore enterprises, Through calculation, it can be seen that the decline range of net interest rate is 0.12-0.97pp, and the impact is controllable.
At the same time, the recent policy of reducing the value-added tax rate by 1% is good for the profit side of pharmacies. It is estimated that the net interest rate is expected to increase by 0.64pp, and small-scale taxpayers are expected to increase the net interest rate by 2.01pp. The tax benefit is more obvious, which can offset the impact of social security adjustment.
2) Graded classification: graded classification paves the way for prescription outflow, which is a major positive for the industry. In the long run, it will bring income increment and promote the improvement of industry concentration.
Taking Guangdong great ginseng forest as an example, after the implementation of classification, chain pharmacies basically meet the three types of standards. The standardized operation of listed companies is less affected, which promotes the improvement of industry concentration, benefits the development of leading enterprises, and will bring incremental prescription revenue in the long run. We expect that the classification will be extended to the whole country in the future, and the national classification policy will evolve into a more moderate and Better policies for chain leading pharmacies.
3) Zhejiang medical insurance policy: Zhejiang medical insurance stipulates that pharmacies also implement the same medical insurance payment price as hospitals, with a decrease of 0-30% compared with the previous price. In addition, after the implementation of the policy, pharmacies can reduce the impact by adjusting the variety structure, which is within the controllable range.
4) E-commerce development: Although the theoretical space of e-commerce is large, the actual space is limited by the promotion of various policies, and the o2o model created by chain pharmacies has more advantages in resources, management and cost compared with e-commerce. It is the future development trend of Internet Medical. E-commerce will not pose a major risk to the development of retail drug stores.
To sum up, we are still optimistic about the chain drugstore sector for a long time. The pattern of medicine separation, concentration improvement and leading win will continue to evolve. We are optimistic about the leading Yifeng drugstore of listed companies, Yixintang, Da Shenlin, people, etc.