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Pension 2035 will be exhausted. Where will the pension go

Pension 2035 will be exhausted. Where will the pension go Recently, according to the report of authoritative institutions, the basic pension will have a deficit in 2028, and the balance will be exhausted by 2035. Where will the pension go in the future? Come and have a look.

The accumulated pension balance will be exhausted in 2035

The report predicts that under the benchmark scenario, the current balance of the basic old-age insurance fund for employees of urban enterprises across the country from 2019 to 2050 will begin to plunge rapidly after barely maintaining a positive number for several years, and the deficit will become larger and larger. Specifically, the total current balance in 2019 was 106.29 billion yuan, which briefly increased to 2022, and then began to decline from 2023. The current balance showed a negative number of - 118.13 billion yuan for the first time in 2028, and finally fell to - 11.28 trillion yuan in 2050.

It is worth noting that the above current balance is calculated under the condition of "large caliber" (including financial subsidies). If financial subsidies are not considered, that is, in the case of "small caliber", the current balance will be negative in 2019 and decline faster, reaching -16.73 trillion yuan by 2050.

Under the "big caliber", the cumulative balance of the national basic endowment insurance fund for urban enterprise employees in 2019 was 4.26 trillion yuan, which continued to grow, reached a peak of 6.99 trillion yuan by 2027, then began to decline rapidly, and the cumulative balance will be exhausted by 2035.

According to the report, when the enterprise contribution rate is 16%, only from the perspective of institutional support rate (regardless of the improvement of per capita treatment), the payment pressure of basic old-age insurance for urban enterprise employees is increasing. In short, nearly two payers will support one retiree in 2019, while almost one payer will need to support one retiree in 2050.

There are still arduous challenges in the reform of the old-age security system

In fact, in the reform of old-age security system, China has also been working towards the direction of multi pillar, multi-level and balanced development.

Su Gang, Secretary of the Party committee and chairman of Changjiang Endowment Insurance Co., Ltd., said at the recent symposium on the situation of endowment insurance fee reduction that reviewing a series of national measures in the reform of the endowment security system in the past few years, whether it is the market-oriented operation of the basic endowment insurance fund and the transfer of state-owned capital to enrich the social security fund, Or organs and institutions to establish a basic old-age insurance and occupational pension system, the pilot of tax deferred commercial old-age insurance, and the recently launched social security fee reduction measures -- each step of the reform affects the whole body, causing widespread concern of the whole society, which shows the firm determination of the decision-making level to reform, and also shows the arduous task of the reform.

However, in his opinion, with the accelerating process of population aging, the reform of China's old-age security system has also begun to enter a deep-water period, and the reform process of the old-age security system is still facing arduous challenges.

'we should also see that & lsquo; Get old before you get rich & rsquo& lsquo; Regional imbalance & rsquo& lsquo; Unclear sense of pension responsibility & rsquo; The inherent characteristics of China's aging have added more obstacles to the development of old-age security. " Su Gang said.

He believes that the main challenges are insufficient Pension Asset reserves, unbalanced pension security system structure, and people's lack of pension awareness and knowledge.

Specifically, in terms of Pension Asset reserves, the data show that by the end of 2017, the balance of China's Pension Reserves was 8.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.3% of GDP, while the GDP of the United States Pension Reserves accounted for 160% in the same period. At present, the subsidy of China's financial funds to pension expenditure is still expanding.

Although China has proposed to develop the three pillar pension system for many years and the second pillar has developed for several years, at present, the first pillar is still the largest in China's pension security system; The development speed of the second pillar enterprise annuity has slowed down significantly in recent years, the coverage of enterprise annuity is only about 7%, the occupational annuity is still in its infancy, and the coverage of the enterprise annuity system in the United States is more than 60%; China's third pillar of tax deferred pension financial products only began to pilot last year.

According to the data previously learned exclusively by first finance and economics from the industry, as of the end of February, 16 insurance companies carrying out individual tax deferred commercial endowment insurance business had achieved a total premium of less than 100 million yuan, and the overall situation was lower than expected.

In terms of people's pension awareness and knowledge, Su Gang said that although China is a large savings country, it is not an institutional savings for pension. Deposit, bank financing, national debt, real estate and other traditional financing methods are still the mainstream of residents' Pension Reserves. Even if some people's willingness to provide for the elderly began to awaken, due to the lack of financial knowledge, many elderly people are easy to fall into the trap of financial fraud.

Fee reduction may become the development opportunity of the second and third pillars

At the just concluded national "two sessions", the government work report also proposed a reform measure that the payment rate of old-age insurance units can be reduced to 16%. Li Peilin, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and President of the Shanghai Research Institute, said that the fee reduction is good for economic development and social people's livelihood, but these will accelerate the consumption of the basic old-age insurance fund. If the population aging is superimposed, it can be imagined that the financial sustainability of China's basic old-age insurance system will be more prominent.

The unbalanced development of the three pillars and the increasing pressure of the first pillar all show the urgency of developing the second and third pillars of pension as soon as possible. Although the current development of the second and third pillars is poor, several industry experts said that in the case of reducing the fees paid by the first pillar enterprises, it may form development opportunities for the second and third pillars.

Ouyang Juhua, assistant president of China Life Endowment Insurance Co., Ltd., said at the above forum that if the original payment level is high and many enterprises have a great 'crowding out effect', there will be no development space for the second and third pillars. After the payment level of the first pillar is reduced, there will be some opportunities for the second and third pillars. But he also said that the size of the opportunity is also related to the duration of the fee reduction policy and the subsequent supporting policy support for the second and third pillars.

Li Yimei, general manager of Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd., said that in a sense, if the fees of the first pillar are reduced and there are very large policy or practical actions in the second pillar and the third pillar, in the long run, the second pillar and the third pillar will become an important supplement to the first pillar. She believes that if we can effectively guide some funds from the first pillar to the second pillar through market-oriented methods, it will play a better role in promoting the tripartite confrontation of the whole old-age security system.

Several insiders said that with the expansion of the third pillar tax extension policy pilot outside the insurance industry, banks and fund companies have also launched similar products. After the expansion of supply, there will be more participants and the market will slowly expand. However, for all market players involved, it also means further increase of competitive pressure.