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What is the trend of the real estate market in the first quarter of 2019? The third and fourth tier

Buying a house is one of the most important things in Chinese life. Therefore, house price is the most concerned topic of many people. The rise and fall of holidays affect people's hearts. People who don't buy a house worry about the rise of house price, and people who have bought a house worry about the fall of house price and the depreciation of their house. There is a close relationship between house prices and the trend of the real estate market. Unconsciously, the first quarter of 2019 has passed. What is the trend of the real estate market in the first quarter of this year? What is the trend of the real estate market in the first quarter of 2019? This article introduces the trend of the real estate market in the first quarter of 2019. Let's have a look.

in the first quarter of this year, the pace of land promotion in local cities slowed down, and the overall supply and demand of the land market decreased, especially in the third and fourth tier cities.

According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, 460 million square meters of land were launched in 300 cities in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. By line cities, the land supply in the third and fourth tier cities decreased significantly. Specifically, 7.3 million square meters of residential land were launched in first tier cities, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%; Second tier cities launched 94.46 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; The third and fourth tier cities launched 102.77 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%.

From the perspective of trading volume, the transaction scale of residential land also decreased significantly, including the decline in third and fourth tier cities. According to the statistics of the Chinese Academy of technology, 380 million square meters of land were sold in 300 cities across the country, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%. Among them, 80.89 million square meters were traded in the third and fourth tier cities, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.8%, the largest decline among the tier cities.

"On the whole, affected by the large-scale land auction in 2018, it is predicted that the financing environment for real estate enterprises in 2019 is still tight, and enterprises have entered the peak of debt repayment this year, the capital pressure is still large, and it is unlikely that the national land market will continue to recover in an all-round way." The relevant person in charge of China Index Research Institute pointed out that 'the cooling trend of the third and fourth tier cities has appeared, but the first and second tier cities have won more attention from enterprises based on relatively good fundamentals and attraction to various resources, and the land market will maintain a certain heat'.

The scale of non-performing loans will rise slowly in the next 3-5 years

From the 2018 annual report disclosed by recently listed banks, although the balance of non-performing loans of banks is still generally increasing, the non-performing loan ratio of many banks has decreased or the rising speed has converged. Does this mean that the quality of bank assets has gradually entered the 'safety zone'?

The survey results of the report show that nearly 50% of the respondents expect the pressure on non-performing assets in the banking industry to rise slowly in the next 3-5 years. Among them, the respondents of asset management companies will be relatively pessimistic than those in the banking industry. From the perspective of asset management companies, the continuous increase of non-performing assets in China's banking industry will be a high probability event in the next 3-5 years, mainly due to:

First, the cyclical and structural factors of the current round of concentrated exposure of non-performing assets have not been fundamentally changed. Structural adjustment will still be the main tone of economic operation, and the stock of non-performing assets, especially those in industries with serious overcapacity, will continue to be cleared;

Second, profound changes have taken place in the world economic and political environment, the downward pressure on the domestic economy has increased, the operation of enterprises has become more difficult, and the new bad scale of some industries has expanded;

Third, promoting the closer combination of preventing systemic risks and serving the real economy will be the focus of supervision in the future. Under this tone, the regulatory authorities will still maintain greater support for the disposal of non-performing assets of commercial banks, in order to release more credit space for banks to support small and medium-sized and private enterprises;

Fourth, the revision of the provision coverage ratio and loan provision ratio and the promulgation of the new rules and regulations on asset management have brought great pressure on the disposal of non-performing assets of banks, which will force banks to improve the disposal efficiency of non-performing assets. After large state-owned banks, joint-stock banks may become an important supplier of non-performing assets in the market;

Fifth, the driving force of the rapid rise in house prices has declined, the long-term accumulated risk hidden dangers in the real estate market have been exposed, and the scale of bad housing related problems will gradually expand.