Now many people realize the importance of social security, especially the old-age insurance in social security will be very helpful for people when they have no source of income after retirement, and it is a powerful guarantee for basic life. Therefore, many people are paying social security now. But recently, the topic of "pension 2035 will be exhausted" has become the most concerned issue, which is related to whether many people can get a pension after retirement. So what's going on when the pension 2035 will run out? What if the pension is exhausted in 2035? This article brings you the specific content about the depletion of pension in 2035. Let's have a look.
On April 10, the world social security research center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the China pension actuarial report 2019-2050 (hereinafter referred to as the report).
The report predicts that by 2028, the current balance of the basic endowment insurance fund for urban enterprise employees in China may be negative for the first time; The accumulated balance is expected to reach a peak of 6.99 trillion yuan by 2027, and then begin to decline. It is possible to exhaust the accumulated balance by 2035.
According to the speed predicted by the report, the pension will be spent before the post-80s retire.
The accumulated pension balance will be exhausted around 2035
The report predicts that from 2019 to 2050, after barely maintaining a positive balance for several years, the current balance of the national basic endowment insurance fund for urban enterprise employees will begin to plunge rapidly, and the deficit will become larger and larger. Specifically, the current balance in 2019 is 106.29 billion yuan, which will increase briefly to 2022, and then decline from 2023. By 2028, the current balance will be negative for the first time, reaching negative 118.13 billion yuan. Finally, by 2050, the current balance may reach negative 11.28 trillion yuan.
The report points out that in 2019, the accumulated balance of the basic old-age insurance fund for employees of urban enterprises nationwide was 4.26 trillion yuan, and then continued to grow, reaching a peak of 6.99 trillion yuan by 2027, then began to decline rapidly, and the accumulated balance will be exhausted by 2035.
Only from the perspective of institutional support rate (regardless of the improvement of per capita treatment), the payment pressure of basic old-age insurance for urban enterprise employees is increasing. In short, nearly two payers will support one retiree in 2019, and almost one payer will need to support one retiree around 2050.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics in 2018, there are 250 million people over the age of 60, accounting for 17.9% of the total population, and 167 million people over the age of 65, accounting for 11.9% of the total population. The number of aging population has entered a rapid growth stage, and the population dependency ratio has accelerated, which will directly bring challenges to the financial sustainability of the old-age insurance system.
In addition, the current balance of pensions in various provinces has also been seriously 'polarized'. According to the report, after the introduction of the central adjustment system, Guangdong, which ranked first in the current balance in 2019, was 129.6 billion yuan, far exceeding the 47.83 billion yuan in Sichuan, which ranked second, and 47.72 billion yuan in Beijing, which ranked third, with obvious advantages.
At the same time, the total pension balance of Guangdong is almost ranked 2-10, that is, the sum of the current balance of Beijing, Hunan, Sichuan, Fujian, Yunnan, Guizhou, Xinjiang, Anhui and Tianjin, while the current income can not cover the expenditure of 16 provinces.
It is suggested to introduce a delayed retirement plan as soon as possible
The report points out that there are still many irrationalities in the current operating parameters of basic old-age insurance, such as low retirement age, few payment years, the treatment indexation mechanism has not been established, and the lack of financial dynamic adjustment mechanism. Corresponding reform plans should be issued as soon as possible to improve.
To this end, the report recommends that a scheme to delay the retirement age should be introduced as soon as possible.
China's demographic dividend is gradually disappearing, which has almost become a consensus of all sectors of society.
In an economic sense, demographic dividend refers to a country's ability to enjoy a variety of benefits in investment and consumption brought by a high proportion of young and middle-aged labor force in the process of development. There is no doubt that the demographic dividend, as the most important starting point for China to give full play to its comparative advantage, is one of the biggest "Heroes" for maintaining long-term economic development.
However, in recent years, with the rapid decline of the birth rate, China's demographic dividend is facing the dilemma of depletion. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2018, there were 248 million 'children' aged 0-15, but 250 million 'old friends' aged 60 and over.
At the same time, China's population burden is increasing, and the payment pressure of basic old-age insurance for urban enterprise employees is also increasing.
From the practice of developed countries, prolonging the working life of the population and fully tapping the market for the elderly are the necessary options to deal with the decline of demographic dividend. In Europe, America, Japan and other countries, the labor participation rate of the elderly with white hair continues to rise. For example, in Japan, the labor participation rate of the elderly over 65 began to exceed 20% after 2013 and reached 23.7% in 2018.
According to statistics, there are more than 83 million people aged 60-65 in China. If the delayed retirement policy can be introduced as soon as possible, the supply of human resources in China's labor market will be greatly increased and the social security burden will be reduced.
For a long time, due to the premature legal retirement age, China's elderly market is far from developed. China is one of the countries with the earliest retirement age in the world, and the average retirement age is less than 55 years old, which not only causes a waste of labor, but also weighs the burden of social security.
Therefore, to transform the 'population burden' into a 'demographic dividend', we need to introduce a delayed retirement policy as soon as possible and improve the elderly employment market.