What will house prices be like in ten years? The investment value of houses in the next three to five years is not large, but what will happen to the house prices in these cities ten years later? Want to do some super long-term investment. What will China's house prices be like if they develop according to the current situation ten years later?
The house prices in the first tier cities must be steady and rising. Due to the support of some good industries, the dividends in the first tier cities are estimated to be steady and rising, and the house prices have to go up. House prices in some weak second tier cities, including some third and fourth tier cities, are not easy to talk about. They may be flat, they may fall, and even they may fall very miserably. Now we can see that the house prices in some cities are very low.
It depends on the policy in the short term, the relationship between land supply and demand in the medium term, and the net inflow of population in the long term. It depends on what will happen ten years later. Basically, it depends on the dimension of employment.
Nationwide, the population aging is still quite serious. The proportion of middle-aged and elderly people is getting higher and higher, and the degree of aging is serious, which may be better for first tier cities. Many children may develop from third and fourth tier cities to first and second tier cities through going to college. When the elderly are old, they may move into first and second tier cities with their children, For these cities, the population may not be one or two more, but it may be bad for the third and fourth tier cities.
Maybe the middle-aged people in their 40s and 50s who hoarded many houses in the third and fourth tier cities ten years ago may be 60 or 70 years old now. For the third and fourth tier cities, not only the population is empty, but also there may be the pressure to sell. Therefore, from the perspective of aging, it must be better for the first and second tier cities.
The attraction of first tier cities is still very strong. Although there are still many adjustments, there will be many dividend advantages in terms of education, health care, employment and so on for a long time in the future, which will attract a steady stream of people. Some people believe that the strong attraction of the city is mainly in the net inflow of population. It has resource advantages and is not weak in itself.
There may be a lot of population outflow in the third and fourth tier cities, including selling. In addition, young and middle-aged people can really grasp the root in the third and fourth tier cities. For these friends who want to have greater development, due to the lack of attraction, the population outflow will be more serious. If the outflow of population is particularly large, house prices may really fall.