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House price trend in 2019 property market dynamics in 2019 (latest)

Last year, there was an adjustment in China's real estate market, especially in the second half of the year. Recently, there have been policy loosening and fine-tuning in some cities. Experts predict that the main tone of the policy of "housing without speculation" will not be substantially reversed in 2019, which means that while supporting the reasonable self occupied demand of residents, efforts will be made to suppress investment and speculative demand. So what about house prices in 2019? Let's take a look at the latest developments in the property market in 2019!

With the continuous cooling of the real estate market in the second half of last year, it is expected that some cities and regions will fine tune their regulatory policies in 2019.

Deregulation of real estate regulation policies in many places

Over the past month, several local cities have relaxed the purchase or sales restriction policies. Among them, the most clear is Heze City, Shandong Province, which clearly proposed to cancel the sales restriction conditions, which is understood as' the first shot to start the deregulation order of the real estate market '. Then many cities have relaxed house purchase restrictions.

On January 10, Zhuhai proposed to speed up the improvement of the public employment service system covering the development of Hong Kong and Macao personnel in Zhuhai, and explore relaxing the restrictions of Macao residents on house purchase. On January 3, the high tech Zone Branch of Qingdao Municipal Bureau of land, resources and housing issued a notice to suspend the rule of "Yaohao house sales".

At the end of December 2018, Guangzhou issued the latest regulations that the provident fund can be withdrawn from other places for house purchase; Almost at the same time, Foshan cancelled the minimum access conditions for house purchase.

Looking back on 2018, the real estate regulation policy changed from tight to loose. Correspondingly, there have also been obvious two-stage changes at the policy level of local governments: in the first three quarters, we adhered to the regulation objectives and did not relax our efforts, involving the continuous high pressure of the four limit policy, rectifying the market order, raising the mortgage interest rate, etc;

In the fourth quarter, there were signs of loosening the regulation and control strategy. Some cities such as Guangzhou, Wuhan and Nanning relaxed the price limit, many cities reduced the floating proportion of mortgage interest rates, and Heze clearly proposed to cancel the sales restriction conditions.

In December 2018, the Chinese housing development report (2018-2019) released by the Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that after the multiple effects of the real estate market cycle, early demand release and policy regulation, after entering the second half of 2018, with the gradual effect of the regulation policy lasting for three years, the real estate market in some cities gradually showed fatigue, the land premium rate continued to decline and the land auction continued to increase, Inventories in some cities have entered the rising channel again.

Industry insiders believe that the central economic work conference at the end of 2018 will continue to adhere to the positioning of "housing, housing and non speculation", and consolidate the main responsibility of the urban government due to urban policies and classified guidance. Based on this, the main tone of the policy of "no speculation in housing and housing" and policy implementation due to the city will remain unchanged in the future. While supporting the reasonable residential demand of residents, we will strive to suppress investment and speculative demand and alleviate the rising pressure of house prices in hot cities.

In connection with the recent cancellation of sales restrictions in Heze, some analysts believe that the current round of regulation and control policies are expected to change, and more cities may follow up the deregulation and control. Especially those cities with high inventory pressure are more likely to relax regulation.

Ouyang Jie, senior vice president of Xincheng Holdings (25.000, 0.04, 0.16%), believes that at present, the decline of market trading volume is the mainstream of the housing market. " The purpose of the purchase restriction is to limit speculation. Since the tide of speculators has ebbed in an all-round way, relaxing the purchase restriction has become the policy first choice to steadily increase the trading volume. For example, lowering the entry threshold, lowering social security conditions and lowering talent standards will increase market trading volume. "

In his view, the price limit policy also shows signs of relaxation. " When the market went down, some cities relaxed the price of high-end disk, released high prices to enter the market, and took advantage of the trend to solve the high-end disk & lsquo; Barrier lake & rsquo; Question. The reduction of mortgage interest rates in some first - and second tier cities has become a small trend, which will also promote the recovery of the housing market. "

Some cities have policy callback power

Where is the boundary of policy relaxation? Ouyangjie believes that 'the purchase restriction policy will be generally relaxed, but it will not be the cancellation of the purchase restriction. The relaxed boundary will focus on the purchase restriction conditions. For example, farmers can settle down when they buy a house in the city, undergraduate students can settle down in technical secondary schools, and the length of social security can be reduced to half a year or even lower. "

"The real estate market is facing the opportunity of counter cyclical adjustment, and policy relaxation is the pre adjustment and fine adjustment of counter cyclical adjustment." Ouyang Jie said that local governments have moderately relaxed regulation and control, attracted real estate enterprises to buy land, and financial institutions have lowered interest rates, all of which are boosting the recovery of the market. " However, & lsquo; Housing is not fried & rsquo; It is still a long-term positioning. In this sense, relaxation is not equal to liberalization, and regulation will not withdraw. "

In the view of the industry, the continuous cold of residential sales in some markets is the main reason for the deregulation of the policy. In 2018, the transaction scale of commercial housing in the whole year increased slightly compared with that in 2017, and the urban market pattern also changed significantly. Especially with the gradual implementation of "urban governance and classified regulation", the market differentiation of first tier, second tier and third and fourth tier cities has become more and more significant, and the momentum of urban hot spots is in the ascendant.

According to the statistics of Kerui real estate research center, from the perspective of transaction structure in 2018, the third and fourth tier markets are still the main force of commercial housing transaction scale, accounting for 69%, and the transaction scale of first and second tier cities continues to decline year-on-year.

The agency believes that considering the continuous downturn of the market and the spread of wait-and-see sentiment since the second half of 2018, some projects in third and fourth tier cities have cut prices and rushed to the top. It is expected that the overall transaction scale of the urban market will decline in 2019, and the policy correction pressure is mainly concentrated in some second tier and most third and fourth tier cities with insufficient demand overdraft and purchasing power.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said that recently there have been policy adjustments in some cities across the country, 'this shows that policy relaxation will consider many contents. At present, it is a tentative stage and is more cautious.'

Yan Yuejin believes that 'for concepts involving house prices, market transaction order and market expectations, the deregulation of policies will be relatively cautious and will not be relaxed lightly. For the concepts of market trading volume, inventory and property structure, the policy will be relatively relaxed, which reflects & lsquo; Policy classification guidance & rsquo; Guide of the. "

It is expected that there will still be differentiation among different cities

Relevant analysis of the Ke Rui Real Estate Research Center believes that considering the current market has turned cold, the project rate has been significantly reduced, and Heze, Zhuhai and other local policies relaxed, the relaxation of control is expected to be further strengthened.

However, the serious lack of purchasing power is the biggest obstacle restricting the third and fourth tier transactions. Most of the third and fourth tier markets are still bound to enter a period of in-depth adjustment. It is expected that the performance of different cities in 2019 will still be differentiated.

According to the analysis and prediction of E-House Real Estate Research Institute, the sales area of commercial housing in China may show a slight decline in 2019. It is expected to decline by about 6% year-on-year, and turn down again after four years of growth.

Therefore, E-House predicted in the 2018-2019 national real estate market research report that the national real estate market in 2019 will continue the cooling process started in August 2018, and the real estate market in most parts of the country is in the winter state.

Based on this analysis, the agency pointed out that "relevant departments must pay close attention to the pace and range of cooling, change their regulation ideas, and slowly transition from tightening regulation over the previous two years to expanding regulation; The focus of the policy has shifted from preventing the rise of house prices to preventing the fall of house prices. To ensure the realization of the national real estate market & lsquo; Soft landing & rsquo;, We will advance in the direction of steady and healthy development. "

In view of the policy trend in 2019, E-House pointed out that under the condition that the premise of "real estate without speculation" remains unchanged, relevant departments and local governments will also pay attention to the pressure brought by the downturn in the real estate field, including sales volume, investment volume and price, and then there will be various policy contents to support the bottom and boost.

From a relaxed perspective, some cities with great downward pressure on the property market will follow the general direction of "one city, one policy" and relax locally, especially in terms of ordinary housing standards, identification of two sets of housing loans, price restrictions, sales restrictions, purchase restrictions, provident fund policies, etc.

'the policy on the demand side of real estate will be further relaxed. Among them, the purchase and sale restrictions and other policies will be further adjusted in the housing purchase and sale market, especially in some cities where the rise of house prices is effectively controlled and the downward force of market transactions is strong, it is expected that there is a greater possibility of relaxation. " E-House research institute further pointed out in the report.

It is worth mentioning that in the report released by the Academy of Social Sciences in December 2018, it is also pointed out that considering the multiple effects of the real estate market cycle, early demand release and policy regulation, the market is expected to maintain the overall trend of overall correction and stable release in 2019, and the probability of continuous shock and sharp decline is small.

However, there is still upward pressure of tight supply-demand contradiction and good market expectation in some areas and rental market, and there is further room for rigid demand and improvement demand.

The report of the Academy of Social Sciences predicts that in the future, the first tier cities may fine tune the regulation measures and maintain the moderation of the regulation policies; Second tier cities may have the most relaxed impulses and conditions to activate the heat of the real estate market; Third and fourth tier cities may intervene to maintain the temperature of the property market.