In 2019, China's economy will grow steadily and the new year will be a new year. According to the analysis of the latest political and economic situation at home and abroad and the research results of relevant think tanks, the research team of Securities Daily will have the following ten predictions for China's stock market in 2019. Let's see if they can come true!
1. It is estimated that the GDP growth rate in 2019 will be about 6.3% and the CPI growth rate will be about 2.5%.
In 2018, China's economy will run smoothly and make progress while maintaining stability. It is expected that the main objectives and tasks of the whole year can be completed well. The central economic work conference made targeted arrangements for the focus of economic work in 2019, emphasizing the upgrading of manufacturing industry, expanding and strengthening the domestic market, focusing on making up for weaknesses, adjusting structure, expanding effective investment and promoting the upgrading of consumption and supply.
The main factors determining economic growth are consumption and investment. Under the background of slowing international trade, domestic investment must be reasonable and stable to promote the stable growth of consumer demand. The upgrading of consumption quality is a bright spot in China's economy. It is a high probability event that the CPI growth in 2019 is higher than that in 2018. Although trade friction still exists objectively, China's export trade is expected to maintain growth this year, but the growth rate may fall.
Based on the forecasts of authoritative institutions at home and abroad, we expect the annual real GDP growth rate to be about 6.3% and CPI growth to be about 2.5% in 2019.
2. It is expected to implement RRR reduction at least three times and continue to launch innovative monetary policy tools.
From the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in August 2018 to the central economic work conference in December 2018, it is emphasized to ensure the reasonable and sufficient total liquidity and pay more attention to opening up the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. This requires that monetary policy should appropriately increase pre adjustment and fine-tuning on the basis of maintaining the 'steady' tone.
We expect to implement at least three RRR reductions in 2019 to ensure reasonable and sufficient liquidity. On the whole, the directional interest rate adjustment will still be enabled in a timely and appropriate manner.
In order to open up the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the central bank will continue to launch innovative monetary policy tools to support the development of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and "agriculture, rural areas and farmers". The existing MLF medium-term lending facilities and other tools will be further optimized, and the open market business operation will be strengthened.
Monetary policy will be committed to starting domestic demand, further solving the problem of 'insufficient and unbalanced' in the domestic market, emphasizing policy independence and reducing the impact of the Fed's interest rate increase.
3. It is expected that the scale of tax reduction and fee reduction will exceed 2.2 trillion yuan, double that in 2018.
The central economic work conference has made it clear that in 2019, more large-scale tax cuts and more obvious fee reductions will be promoted to effectively alleviate the problem of difficult and expensive financing for enterprises.
We believe that 'larger scale' means that the scale of tax reduction and fee reduction this year is significantly higher than that in 2018. At the beginning of 2018, the state set the annual tax reduction and fee reduction target of 1.1 trillion yuan. At present, it is estimated that the actual scale will exceed 1.3 trillion yuan.
According to the downward pressure on economic growth and the increase in international uncertainty this year, expanding and strengthening the domestic market is the best choice. The scale of tax reduction and fee reduction in 2019 can be considered as 2 trillion yuan. From the perspective of goal guidance, the scale of 2.2 trillion yuan can be determined.
The methods of tax reduction and fee reduction include inclusive tax reduction and structural tax reduction. The specific measures are to simplify and reduce the value-added tax, reduce the income tax of some enterprises and industries, further reduce the social security rate, and implement the six special additional deduction policies of individual income tax. In addition, we should also clean up and standardize local charging items, and strengthen the investigation and rectification of arbitrary charges.
4. Shanghai Stock Exchange set up a science and innovation board and pilot registration system, which is expected to be implemented in the second quarter.
In November 5, 2018, President Xi Jinping proposed the establishment of a "scientific creation board" and a pilot registration system at the Shanghai Stock Exchange at the first China Import fair. At present, this work is being actively promoted. The science and innovation board aims to make up for the shortcomings of the capital market in serving scientific and technological innovation. It is an incremental reform of the capital market and will make more appropriate differentiated arrangements in terms of profitability and ownership structure. At present, although the relevant implementation rules have not been issued, the expectations of all parties for the establishment of the science and innovation board are stable.
We expect that the relevant rules of the science and Innovation Board will soon enter the stage of public consultation. The probability of launching the scientific innovation board in the first half of this year is very high. If all goes well, it is expected to be launched as soon as may.
5. The new third board will implement overall reform, focusing on enhancing liquidity and optimizing the trading mechanism.
In 2018, the liquidity and transaction indifference of the new third board market became the "pain of the multi-level capital market". In the last two months of 2018, the new third board launched stock reform measures including issuance system reform, market maker evaluation methods, optimization of M & a system rules, and launched five third board leading indexes such as innovation index and third board leader.
The standardized operation and vitality of the new third board play an irreplaceable role in promoting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and improving the capital market structure. The overall reform should be implemented as soon as possible. It is expected that the reform of the new third board in 2019 will focus on enhancing liquidity, improving the issuance mechanism, optimizing the transaction mechanism and refining layers. We can consider trying out the continuous bidding trading mode at the innovation level.
6. China US economic and trade consultations have been actively promoted, and it is expected to reach an agreement acceptable to both sides as scheduled.
In December 1, 2018, President Xi Jinping held a successful meeting with President Trump in Argentina and reached an important consensus on bilateral economic and trade issues.
At present, the working teams of China and the United States are stepping up consultations and working hard to reach an agreement acceptable and satisfactory to both sides. " Implementing the consensus reached at the China US dollar summit in Argentina and promoting China US economic and trade consultation "has been written into the press release of the central economic work conference.
On the morning of December 11, vice premier Liu he had a telephone conversation with US Treasury Secretary manuchin and trade representative lait Xize at request. The two sides exchanged views on the timetable and road map for implementing the consensus reached by the two heads of state and promoting the next step of economic and trade consultations. On December 21, China and the United States held a vice ministerial call to exchange in-depth views on issues of common concern, such as trade balance and strengthening intellectual property protection, and made new progress. The two sides also discussed relevant arrangements for the next call and exchange of visits.
We believe that China and the United States have highly overlapping interests on economic and trade issues and have naturally complementary structural needs. Even if there are interference factors, the road is simple and cooperation is beneficial to both sides. Through frank exchanges between the two teams, seeking common ground while reserving differences, and negotiation in accordance with the idea of win-win cooperation, it is expected to reach an agreement acceptable to both sides before the scheduled time limit, so as to create a relatively stable trade environment for the industrial and commercial circles of the two countries. If the negotiation goes smoothly, the time for reaching an acceptable agreement between both parties can even be advanced.
7. The Shanghai composite index is expected to reverse its strength, and the policy dividend industry is the focus of investment.
In 2018, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was low. Technically, if the Shanghai composite index goes down inertia and breaks through 2245 points, it is a short trap; If we can return to above 2835 points, especially conquer the area of 50 points above and below 3070 points, the medium and long-term strengthening trend is expected to form. It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will effectively break through the 3100 point line, and then start rising.
We expect that the investment hotspots in 2019 will mainly be in two directions: first, value return. Valuation depression stocks and oversold blue chips are expected to rise. Second, policy dividend. The central economic work conference proposed to promote the high-quality development of manufacturing industry. Advanced manufacturing and modern service industries will become potential hot spots for investment in 2019, including 5g, integrated circuits, new energy vehicles, aerospace, high-end medical devices, Internet of things, etc; Education, medical care, pension and other modern service industries will also become the focus.
8. The property market regulation allows three or four tier cities to "one city, one policy", and the rental housing market will quickly make up for the shortcomings and achieve rapid development.
In 2018, the real estate market experienced a "roller coaster" transformation. Especially in the fourth quarter, the cooling trend of the real estate market became more and more obvious. The growth rate of national real estate development investment has dropped from double-digit to single-digit level for three consecutive months. The number of land auction continues to increase, and the premium rate continues to decline, superimposing the current financing pressure of real estate enterprises. Without hedging measures, it is expected that the growth rate of national real estate development investment will further slow down this year.
The National Conference on housing and urban rural construction held recently proposed that the goal of stabilizing land price, house price and expectation in 2019 should be to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. Adhere to the implementation of urban policies and classified guidance, consolidate the main responsibility of the city, and earnestly implement the responsibility of stabilizing land prices and housing prices.
We believe that although there have been fine-tuning in some cities recently, the basic principles will not change as a whole, and the determination of the central government to curb the rise of house prices will not change. However, according to the principle of 'classified guidance', local governments can implement relevant policies according to specific circumstances. It is expected that in 2019, in some regions, especially in the third and fourth tier cities, local governments will 'deregulate' the property market according to the actual situation, that is, 'one city, one policy'.
The meeting also proposed to take solving the housing problem of new citizens as the main starting point to make up for the shortcomings of rental housing. It is expected that all localities will further improve the housing rental market policy this year, especially the "same right to rent and sell" in hot cities is expected to be further implemented.
9. The transfer of state-owned assets to social security is accelerated, and the scale is expected to reach 3 trillion yuan to 5 trillion yuan.
The central economic work conference proposed to continue to transfer some state-owned capital to enrich the social security fund. On December 28, PICC announced that the controlling shareholder, the Ministry of finance, would transfer its 10% equity to the National Social Security Fund Council at one time. This has become the first order to implement the spirit of the central economic work conference.
We expect that in 2019, the transfer of state-owned assets to social security will be accelerated, and it is roughly estimated that the scale is expected to reach 3 trillion yuan to 5 trillion yuan.
Earlier, Peng Huagang, spokesman of SASAC, said at the press conference on the economic operation of central enterprises in the first three quarters of 2018 that SASAC has carried out the pilot of transferring social security fund. At present, the three pilot enterprises have transferred more than 20 billion yuan of state-owned capital. At the same time, we will start to study the list of the second batch of transfer enterprises, include more qualified central enterprises in the transfer scope, strengthen the transfer and promote the transfer as soon as possible. At the same time, new progress has been made in the transfer of state-owned assets to social security at the local level. Xinjiang, Anhui, Yunnan and other places have issued relevant plans to speed up the transfer of local state-owned enterprises.
It is expected that in 2019, the scale and scope of the planned transfer of state-owned enterprises to social security fund will have room for substantial improvement, which will provide more reserve funds for pensions. According to the data released by the Ministry of finance at the end of September last year, the owner's equity of national state-owned enterprises (excluding financial state-owned enterprises) exceeded 50 trillion. Calculated by 10%, the transfer of owner's equity of state-owned enterprises is expected to reach 3 trillion yuan to 5 trillion yuan.
10. Long term funds are surging into the market, and a shares will become the darling of global capital.
On October 31, 2018, Lu Aihong, spokesman of the Ministry of human resources and social security, said at a press conference that as of the end of September, 15 provincial (district and municipal) governments such as Beijing and Shanxi had signed entrusted investment contracts with the Social Security Fund Council, with a total contract amount of 715 billion yuan, of which 416.65 billion yuan had been received and began to invest. According to the latest news, the investment and operation of Shanghai occupational pension fund is advancing in an orderly manner and is expected to be actually put into operation this year.
On September 28, 2018, the measures for the supervision and administration of financial management business of commercial banks were issued. In the new financial management regulations, banks are allowed to directly invest in stocks through private financial products, and public financial products can indirectly invest in stocks through public funds; On October 25, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) issued the regulations on the establishment of special products by insurance asset management companies