4hw.com.cn integration: the deployment of Sadr in South Korea has become an important symbol of the outbreak of the new cold war, but in South Korea, because of Sadr, there is a hot war. South Korea's protests continued one after another, and the settlement of "Sade" in gyeongshang North Daoxing Prefecture was even more "fighting with death". The sheriff and others took the lead in writing blood letters. South Korean Prime Minister Huang Jiao'an and Defense Minister Han minqiu were thrown eggs and water bottles by angry people in Xingzhou County on July 15, and the special car was besieged for six hours, the first time in South Korean history. More than 2000 people in Xingzhou county held a large-scale rally in the square of Seoul railway station on July 21 to oppose the deployment of thad.
The main reason why the current South Korean government, ignoring the protests of the domestic people and the firm opposition of China and Russia, insists on allowing Sade to settle in South Korea is that President Park Geun hye has fallen into a strategic wrong path. She may think that deploying Sade in South Korea will bring more advantages than disadvantages. The misjudgment of Park Geun hye's strategy may be related to the following factors:
First, pressure from the United States. Park Geun hye's position on the Peninsula issue has been almost identical with that of the United States since she came to power, and she has also succumbed to the pressure of the United States in terms of South Korea Japan relations, which is considered to have solved the historical mystery of the 'comfort women' issue at the government level. In terms of diplomacy with China, park Geun hye's government did not fully listen to the opinions of the United States before, such as South Korea's joining the aiib and participating in the '9 & middot; 3' military parade. However, on the 'Sade' issue, it succumbed to the pressure of the United States and did not hesitate to hurt China and Russia for the sake of the U.S. 'Asia Pacific rebalancing' strategy.
Park Geun hye participated in the '9 & middot; 3' Parade
Second, out of the need of domestic political interests. Due to the fact that the ruling party of South Korea, the new national party, failed to win half of the seats in the mid-term elections of the national assembly, park Geun hye is facing the ruling pressure from the north and the wild. The opinions and accusations of Park Geun hye from the domestic public opinion in South Korea have led to the decline of her political control. She hopes to win back the support of the Conservatives and public opinion and get rid of the political dilemma by deploying 'thad'. Of course, this will not only not achieve the goal, but also bring new and bigger problems.
Third, the South Korean government misjudged that the move would not harm China South Korea relations, especially bilateral economic and trade relations. According to the global times on July 20, South Korean Prime Minister Huang jiaoan said on July 19 that the relationship between China and South Korea has been "highly close" and China is unable to impose economic sanctions on South Korea. Yin Bingshi, South Korea's foreign minister, said that the Chinese government did not say that it would impose economic sanctions on South Korea, nor did it make any remarks suggesting that it was possible. This may be one of the important reasons why South Korea dares to challenge China's strategic interests.
Fourth, he thinks that if China chooses an unfavorable time to announce the decision to deploy thad, China will have no time to take care of it, and South Korea will be safe. On July 8, the ROK and the us jointly announced their decision to deploy Sadr in the ROK, which is only five days away from the highly concerned announcement of the results of the South China Sea arbitration case. On the 13th, the day after the announcement of the South China Sea arbitration case, the exact location of Sadr was quickly announced. The aim is to make China suffer from the enemy from both sides and to reduce the pressure on South Korea. Like stabbing in the back, it can be said that the intention is sinister.
The author believes that South Korea's introduction and deployment of "Sade" is actually an act of self ignition and strategic suicide. The final result is likely to be that "scheming is too clever to miss Qingqing's life", which is bound to become a turning point of South Korea's fate.
THAAD anti missile system
First of all, from the perspective of geopolitics, as a peninsula country, South Korea should try its best to avoid becoming a place of conflict between mainland forces and maritime forces, and should become a bridge of exchanges and cooperation between the mainland and the sea, which is the way to survive and develop. During the half century from 1894 Sino Japanese War to 1945 World War II, the Korean Peninsula became a place for collision and competition between mainland forces and maritime forces, which directly led to decades of Japanese colonial rule and long-term division of its territory. History has long proved that if mainland forces collide with maritime forces on the peninsula, the first and the biggest victims will be South Korea itself.
Obama and park Geun hye
The current South Korean government seems to have forgotten the lessons and pain of history. The introduction and deployment of "Sadr" will directly lead to strategic confrontation and conflict between the United States and China (including Russia). Chinese leaders and government have repeatedly stressed that the deployment of "Sadr" in South Korea will break the regional strategic balance and express their firm opposition. Russia also holds the same position. South Korea should understand that once the regional strategic balance is broken, it will become an eventful place and an eventful autumn. Contradictions and conflicts are inevitable. South Korea will bear the brunt, and its destiny will inevitably change.
Secondly, from the perspective of China South Korea relations, although the Chinese government attaches great importance to and treasures the achievements of the development of China South Korea relations, it will not tolerate the behavior of the South Korean government that seriously damages China's national strategic interests. As South Korea's economy is heavily dependent on China, if the Sino South Korean relations deteriorate, it is bound to cause heavy damage to South Korea's economy and society.
In an interview with reporters on July 9, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said: "we also hope that South Korean friends will calmly think about whether the deployment of the" sad "system is really conducive to South Korea's security, to the realization of peace and stability on the peninsula, and to the resolution of the nuclear issue on the peninsula. The parties concerned must act cautiously to avoid making a big mistake. It shows that China still cherishes the hard won relations between China and South Korea, hopes that South Korea will wake up, and reminds South Korea to avoid making a big mistake.
In fact, subtle changes are taking place in China ROK relations
In fact, subtle changes are taking place in China ROK relations. According to Phoenix Satellite TV, before and after South Korea and the United States announced their decision to deploy Sade, park Geun hye wanted to talk to Chinese leaders on the phone and was rejected. In mid July, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang met with leaders of many countries during his visit to Mongolia and his attendance at the 11th Asia Europe summit in Ulaanbaatar, but did not meet with Park Geun hye. According to the KCNA reported on July 11th, Xi Jinping and Kim Jeong-eun, heads of state of the two countries, exchanged congratulatory messages on the 55th anniversary China - DPRK Treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance.
South Korean people are collectively against thad
A year ago, the author published an article saying: "South Korea's security strategy is tied to the chariot of the United States, while South Korea's economy is tied to the train of China. This is an irreconcilable structural contradiction. In the short run, it may be peaceful, but in the long run, it is bound to conflict. 'This prediction seems to be coming true.
At present, China has not formally attacked South Korea. It is giving South Korea leeway and opportunity. It hopes that South Korea will stop deploying Sadr immediately and step back to broaden its horizons. Park Geun hye continued to stress the necessity of deploying thad at the national security conference held on July 21, and said she would not give in to any pressure. South Korea seems to be going further and further on the wrong road, so the historical tragedy may repeat itself in South Korea.
South Korea did not listen to China's advice, and finally agreed to the US deployment of thad in South Korea. However, it is surprising that on the second day after South Korea accepted the US deployment of thad, South Korea Radio International reported that Hong Qize, vice president of the Asian infrastructure investment bank, who is responsible for investment risk affairs, was forced to fall to the rank of director of the Bureau after entering a long vacation.
That is to say, South Korea has actually lost the post of vice president obtained after paying 4300 billion won to aiib. As for the vice president of the aiib, India, Germany, South Korea, Indonesia and the United Kingdom have previously sent personnel to serve as the vice president of the aiib. However, this time, the post of vice president of South Korea has been directly demoted, which means that a new vice president will be filled next, so the new vice president may no longer be a Korean.
Sade system launch vehicle and fire control radar
Although the aiib is secretive about this matter, from the current situation, I am afraid it has something to do with South Korea's agreement on the US deployment of Sadr in South Korea. If other countries send people to take up the post of vice president, it will be China's move; on the contrary, if South Korea finally sends people to take up the important post, it will mean that the news is wrong.
So, in essence, this matter has not been fully confirmed, but if the original position of the South Korean vice president of aiib is demoted to the director level, it means that the probability rate is true. In the author's opinion, I hope this is true, because South Korea has done such a sorry thing to China, and the benefits given by China in the past should be properly recovered, which is in line with the rules of the state.
Saad missile system (information chart)
It can be predicted that China will take a lot of measures to deal with South Korea. In the future, South Korea will not only bear strategic pressure and military security pressure, but also economic pressure. It is impossible for China to welcome South Korea when it hurts China's strategy.
There is no doubt that China can not deliberately destroy China's economic and trade exchanges, but because of the political problems between the two countries, the economy will be affected. Therefore, South Korea should be psychologically prepared, and China will introduce a series of measures against South Korea.
South Korea allowed the United States to deploy the Sade anti missile system in South Korea, and confirmed that the deployment will be completed by the end of 2017, which means that South Korea has joined the strategy of containing China and confirmed the side selection station. No matter how South Korea explains it, no matter whether South Korea really thinks so or not, it is impossible to justify everything. Chinese officials have made it clear.
On July 11, the Chinese Ministry of foreign affairs once again made a qualitative analysis of the deployment of Sadr's anti missile system allowed by South Korea, that is, the deployment of Sadr's anti missile system by the United States in South Korea is not conducive to the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula, let alone the settlement of the nuclear issue on the peninsula.
In particular, the move seriously damages China's strategic security interests, which China firmly opposes and strongly urges the United States and South Korea to change course.
What does it mean that South Korea's regional security strategy is not balanced between China and Germany. That's why China is trying to persuade South Korea to change its course.
South Korean President Park Geun hye
However, let's carefully sort out the attitude of South Korea in the past three years. When Park Geun hye took office in February 2013, she changed the pro us line of the former Lee Myung Bak government and paid more attention to developing relations with China to balance her position between China and the United States. Even on September 3, 2015, park Geun hye, under the pressure of the United States, went to Beijing to watch the 9 & middot; 3 military parade, which shows her importance to China South Korea relations.
So, why did Park Geun hye's government suddenly 'betray' China? What lessons should China learn from South Korea's' betrayal '? In the author's opinion, first of all, the word' betrayal 'is not very accurate, because great changes may take place in international relations at any time. After all, the political relationship between China and South Korea is not solid, and there is no alliance, but just a strategic partnership.
The United States has confirmed Sade's entry into South Korea
However, considering that China has indeed done its best on the Korean Peninsula, and is also doing its best to maintain relations with South Korea, denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and North South balance, China will finally achieve the goal