In 2015, the property market has been changing, policies have been repeated, and experts have made a variety of predictions on house prices, which also makes buyers pay special attention to the trend of housing prices in the first and second tier cities in China.
Niu Dao said that house prices will drop three times, the Beijing second-hand housing market cooling phenomenon, a single set of second-hand housing prices 200000 yuan in a month is not fresh. Han Shitong said that the collapse of house prices is an inevitable phenomenon. When things reach extremes, we should guard against such regular things. Han Shitong believes that in the future, the probability of housing prices going down is much higher than that of going up. The upward space is almost gone, and the downward space is very huge, because house prices have been at a historical high, including cities in the first, second, third and fourth tier. However, Ren Zhiqiang predicted that house prices would soar. He thought that the new government might prefer to see housing prices rise. Otherwise, such a large-scale local debt hole may be uneven, and there is still a large room for price increase. Ren Zhiqiang even asserted: "you can not believe it, but don't regret it!"
"Bubble theory" and "inflection point" mutually rebuttal, "empty city" and "ghost city" have sprung up. So, will house prices really fall? Will Fuzhou, whose house prices have been strong, be in the city of plummeting? Let's take a look at the top ten cities in China where house prices should plummet in 2015. 1 Qingdao
Qingdao harvested the year of 2009. There is a catchword, moonlight plate, which means that Qingdao's real estate is sold out when it is opened, and that month's sold out advertising is full of newspapers. In Qingdao, the basic price of the affordable housing project in the urban sub center has reached 7000 yuan, and no one has abandoned it. In the past, the situation that the eastern coastal area is unique has been replaced by a comprehensive rise, and the housing prices in Rizhao and other cities adjacent to Jiaonan are also rising. Cross sea bridge and Hongdao Huangdao Qingdao Unicom, Qingdao housing prices are expected to rise further. Obviously, such a rise is not based on reasonable local demand. Therefore, reasonable adjustments should be made under the policy environment of curbing investment speculation. Binhai should pay special attention not to follow the example of Hainan. The Midwest and adjacent Jiaozhou, Jiaonan and Rizhao will further increase. 2 Chongqing
After being directly under the central government, Chongqing's real estate market quickly got rid of the positioning of the third and fourth tier cities and stepped into the ranks of domestic star level cities. This not only benefited from the pursuit of domestic hot money, but also benefited from the mainstream developers from taking Chongqing as the base and bridgehead of the western region. Obviously, Chongqing will be in Jiangbei in the future, which is also a reasonable area for the rise of house prices. However, Binjiang business district is not enough to support the property market that lasts for more than ten thousand years. Moreover, from the perspective of urban function, business district is not equal to high-end residential area, especially in Chongqing. With the adjustment of Chongqing's functions, Chongqing's house prices should be stabilized at the existing level. 3 Jinan
Two years ago, the housing price in the eastern suburbs of Jinan was still hovering within 4000 yuan. The right to hold the National Games and the construction of sports venues in the eastern suburbs led to the rapid rise of regional housing prices. At the same time, the housing prices in the central area of Jinan were rapidly opened up under the guidance of famous enterprises such as Jindi, which made Jinan's housing prices rapidly step into the ranks of advanced provincial capitals. At present, the unit price of Jinan's housing is stable between 6000 yuan and 7000 yuan, with high-end living The house broke through the 30000 yuan mark. Prices in neighboring Zhangqiu are also rising. However, Jinan's overall resources are not enough to support the real estate prices in a mega city, and Qilu is spread from east to west, Qingdao in the East, Jinan in the middle and Henan in the West. The overall average price of the whole province is rising rapidly, while the investment and consumption absorbed by the provincial capital leads to the rapid rise of house prices. It is reasonable to expect that the house prices in Jinan will be stable at the average price of about 6000 yuan. 4 Hangzhou
Hangzhou's property market can be described in two sentences. One refers to the urban area of Hangzhou, that is, the original urban area of Hangzhou, with skyrocketing houses. The other is to regard bianzhou as Hangzhou, which means that the surrounding cities of Hangzhou are rapidly striding forward with Hangzhou as the standard, forming a high price area in Hangzhou triangle. Although Hangzhou has the advantageous geographical and historical and cultural conditions of a livable city, the surrounding area of Hangzhou is strictly industrial. Therefore, large cities such as Suzhou, Kunshan and Shanghai, which are 300 kilometers around Hangzhou, can attract local consumption. However, in fact, the high-end residential buildings in Hangzhou have not worried about the market, and more foreigners have moved to Hangzhou. It is expected that foreign investment will be greatly reduced this year, so the housing price in Hangzhou will decline as a whole. 5 Dongguan
The Pan Pearl River Delta integration and the integration of Guangzhou and Shenzhen are not enough to support the push of nearly 100 high-end plates in Dongguan at the same time. The five-step Hotel and ten mile park are not enough to support the monthly increase of residential unit price in this city. The second-hand house nearly doubled from 3700 yuan to 6100 yuan at the end of the year. The price of new house is stable at about 6300 yuan in the opposite quarter. The villa is sold out immediately. The local improved rigid demand in Dongguan can support the average housing price of 5000-6000 yuan. However, according to the trend at the end of the year, the average housing price has been hovering between 5200 and 5600 yuan before, but it quickly stabilized to 6200 yuan in the last quarter, which proves that the release of local demand is still the main force of local demand. However, Dongguan's investment and speculation market is not long-term. Therefore, it is the mainstream price this year to return to the original level under the condition that the tightening effect is just needed. It is more realistic to reduce the price by about 500 yuan. 6 Wuhan
Wuhan is the most reasonable city to decline. The non-standard reason is that Wuhan, like this civilian city, has gathered the mainstream suppliers from the whole country and even the world, such as the order business driven by Wanda, and the average price per square is two to four times higher than the market price. Two years ago, Mizuki Kiyoka, the Hanshui city riverside, opened the expected target price and was set at about 5600 yuan, and was slightly more radical. Now, the average price has risen to about 13000 yuan / square meter. This is due to the growth and maturity of the new area, and on the other hand, it is closely related to the domestic waterfront plate, which is full of foam. One of the reasons for the rise in property prices. In the future, the expansion of Wuhan will cover Huangpi, Caidian, Hannan, Gedian, Hanchuan, Zhengdian, Jiangxia, etc. the real estate in such areas will rise completely, driving the outflow of urban real estate, and the investment and speculation of real estate will be concentrated outside the city. The house price in the central area will be adjusted rationally and appropriately to meet the demand of middle and high-grade products. Wuhan's housing price should be in the forefront of the country, but the structure must be adjusted according to the above-mentioned adjustment to form a circle structure. It is expected that the average house price in Wuhan will break through six this year, but the waterfront along the second ring road and the central area should be appropriately lowered, and the sub center may rise appropriately. 7 Changsha
Changsha's property market has always maintained a leading position in China in terms of marketing culture and house price. As of 2009, the average housing price in Changsha has maintained a continuous upward trend, with a month on month increase of 1.3% in January this year and an increase of 9.3% in the average housing price. It is the provincial capital city with the strongest rise among the 35 sample cities in China. However, Changsha's property market is greatly affected by urban agglomerations, coupled with land concentration, the neighboring cities Zhuzhou and Xiangtan are not able to match the housing development level of Changsha, which directly leads to excessive concentration of investment speculation in the provincial capital. Of course, Changsha is far lower than the average housing price of Wuhan and the development of urban agglomerations with a total population of 15 million and an area of 8000 square kilometers, which makes developers have sufficient confidence to hoard housing resources and maintain the steadily rising public opinion price. However, we should not forget that the cultural effect of Changsha will also crowd out excessive outflow consumption. It is expected that the housing price adjustment will be carried out around the central urban area. 8 Tianjin
The average housing price in Tianjin is 16000. After the blue print exit, the property market in Tianjin has become more complex than expected. Although the rumors about the loosening of the restrictions on the purchase of Binhai in May were not implemented at the Binhai Housing Fair on the 23rd, many projects were still not sold well. Foreign developers full of confidence at the same time, Tianjin local developers have long smelled the market risk. The biggest blow to Tianjin's property market caused by the cancellation of blue print accounts is high inventory. Zhongyuan Real estate analyst Zhang Dawei believes that after the cancellation of the blue print account, the property market in the suburbs of Tianjin will usher in a long-term depression. From the transportation point of view, the suburbs of Tianjin do not have the conditions to be a sleeping city, and the industrial advantages are not great. In addition, Zhang Dawei believes that the inventory in the suburbs of Tianjin is too large. If there is no blue print Hukou or similar alternative policies, Tianjin's population inflow will decrease, and the huge inventory will bring great capital pressure to enterprises. 9 Nanjing
The transaction volume of 15000 house prices in Nanjing is also relatively low. After checking the eight representative hot plates in Nanjing property market in May, the reporter found that even the once "Shenpan" is more or less faced with the situation of weak follow-up rise and price reduction and stop rising. After 24 months of rising house prices in Nanjing, the first month on month decline occurred in May, which is another basis for the conclusion that the real estate market in Nanjing is facing a comprehensive stop. It is expected that this round of Nanjing house prices will fall. 10 Foshan
Foshan is one of the restricted cities in Guangdong. Why? It is not that the government is controlling the bubble of the Foshan property market. This year Foshan wants to relax the restriction, but it is not successful. This shows that the property market in Foshan is risky. In the view of Foshan economy, Foshan's economic strength still can not support the high property transaction. However, the high volume of transactions indicates that the market is not active. The housing prices in Foshan are almost the same as those in Chongqing, Chengdu and Wuhan. Market, property market purchasing power is so strong? Foshan house prices are bound to fall this year.
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