Original title: how long can giant baby didi last? It's still unprofitable after burning US $24 billion
Sihai technology didi was born in 2012 under the relaxed global capital environment. After that, with the help of capital mania, Didi, a giant baby in China's travel market, was born by burning money and expanding rapidly.
When the global monetary policy is tightened, domestic deleveraging is carried out to prevent financial systemic risks, and the gate of capital is slowly falling, how much money does Didi's investors still have for didi to burn becomes a huge question mark. Nowadays, there is no drop of hematopoietic function, and the risk of weaning increases sharply.
According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, Didi is seeking to go public in 2018.
However, after the stewardess was killed by Didi's driver, Didi's public opinion environment was just like chicken feathers. Didi's dream of the future created by the torrent alliance not long ago was also washed away by Didi's negative saliva.
Didi hitchhiker, which has been out of operation for a week and has been rectified, is facing a "cold" situation after it is back online, and it is difficult to avoid the decline of daily single volume.
Facing the adverse wind, Didi's dream of blood transfusion on the market may usher in more uncertainty.
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Before listing, let's calculate how much didi has raised so far.
These roughly add up to nearly $20.9 billion. However, this is not the total amount of Didi's financing so far. In view of the fact that didi has merged with fast and Uber China in the process of development, the financing amount of fast and Uber China should be added to today's Didi's financing amount.
For example, with the financing amount of more than US $800 million for fast taxi and US $2.1 billion for Uber China, the current financing amount of didi travel is close to US $24 billion.
Recently, it was reported that the valuation of Xiaomi, which is about to be listed, is between us $60 billion and US $70 billion, which has burned nearly half of Xiaomi's Didi. Now it has not stopped financing. According to the corporate bond project information platform of Shanghai Stock Exchange, Didi plans to issue 10 billion yuan of related bonds.
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It is a pity that Didi, which has burned US $24 billion, has not yet made a profit.
In order to create a good profit for the listing, after the merger with Uber China, Didi's assessment standard has gradually changed from the previous market share, daily order volume and number of users to the balance of revenue and expenditure of each business line. Although its loss amount has narrowed to between RMB 1.89 billion and RMB 2.51 billion, it is still at a loss.
Different from Didi's multi line business model, which focuses on C2C, the B2C model of Shenzhou special car focuses on high-end business people, who are less price sensitive and more in line with the business logic of consumption upgrading.
From the current situation of Didi, even if didi has formed a monopoly in the travel market, its business model is difficult to make money.
In order to make profits, Didi also launched a cash loan product for drivers -- didi loan. In the current environment of increasingly high cost of capital use, the future situation of Didi's cash loan is unclear, but the profit pressure faced by Didi's main business can be seen from this.
Didi not only failed to dig out a moat wide enough for itself in six years, but more and more exposed many problems in its operation.
On May 6, as a 21-year-old stewardess was brutally killed by Didi's hitchhiker, the doubt about Didi's operation reached an unprecedented height.
In the criticism of public opinion, Didi carried out a series of rectification measures, including the suspension of free riding operation. Recently, after the rectification of didi hitchhiker back online, but people's doubts about hitchhiker have not dissipated.
For example, some media questioned that although didi hitchhiker drivers need face recognition through mobile phone video before receiving orders, it can not eliminate the situation that drivers are maliciously replaced, because after face brushing authentication, drivers can be replaced by other people.
The most direct response to this problem is that the daily single volume of indifference of didi hitchhike these two days. According to Beijing Daily, many consumers said they tried to book a free ride on weekends and waited for half an hour without receiving orders.
Not only is it a ride, but according to the May 20th official account of the Hunan traffic channel, WeChat public, a woman was caught in a dripping drop, and was caught by a driver's closing order, locking the door and eating.
Security is always a problem that didi can't get around. Whether this problem can be solved or not will determine Didi's future to a certain extent.
If security is Didi's internal concern, the entry of competitors is Didi's external threat. This wave of foreign aggression has not only come fast, but also new entrants have emerged.
What is more noteworthy is that behind meituan and Gaode are Tencent and Ali. Some time ago, some media analysis said that "didi has no friends". Now, under the situation of online car Hailing market, how long can didi survive?
On March 21, meituan took a taxi to enter the Shanghai market and quickly won 30% of the Shanghai market in three days by means of low percentage and subsidy. Meituan's scramble in Beijing, Chengdu and other places is also on the way.
Different from meituan and Didi's all-round war, Gaode map chose to cut into the free riding business, and mainly played the commonweal card of zero percentage. At present, Gaode has launched relevant functions in Wuhan and Chengdu. The next step is to recruit in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou, and start to enclosure the land.
In addition to these new entrants, some of Didi's old rivals are now competing with didi for more markets.
In January this year, Dida carpooling was upgraded to Dida travel, and began to seize the taxi business. At the end of last year, Shouqi car Hailing completed the C round financing of 700 million yuan, and also arranged the taxi business in Beijing, creating a complementary travel pattern of online car hailing and taxi Hailing. In early 2018, Yidao announced that it would access the taxi business in major business cities in the future.
In November 2016, Didi's Cheng Wei once told the media that Didi's home game in China is over, and the next step is to go out and compete with the world's top experts like Huawei.
I didn't expect that in just one year, Didi, who was going to unify the world after Uber China was cut off, now has to face a fierce battle again. The easy admission of competitors will also break Didi's weak industry competition barriers.
Competition of new formats
Besides the traditional competitors, Didi also faces some new competition variables.
In terms of short distance travel, bike sharing and online car Hailing are a reciprocal relationship. In order to make up for the layout of travel, Didi travel tried to win ofo, but failed in the end, and Moby bike is now accepted by meituan. The little blue bike that didi took over not only has a low market share, but also faces disputes such as deposit refund. Meanwhile, Qingju bike that didi built itself has also been reported by the media that it has been illegally launched in Shenzhen for many times and has been listed in the integrity record.
In the bicycle sharing game, Didi's passive situation is obvious.
Another great change to the current online car Hailing market is the automatic driving technology. When cars no longer need drivers, people's daily travel will be automated. Whoever has mastered the automatic driving technology may become the king of the future travel market.
At the "torrent alliance" held in April, Cheng Wei proposed that didi should make a layout in this respect. However, from the perspective of media reports, Didi's relevant actions in this regard mostly started in 2017 and are still in the initial stage.
At present, there are many stars on the track of automatic driving technology, such as Google, Tesla, Baidu and so on, among which there are many companies that have been deeply engaged in this field for many years. For example, Google's parent company Alphabet's autopilot auto company Waymo has begun to seek permission to drive its fully automatic driverless car; Tesla's driverless vehicle is running on the road; Baidu's driverless self powered vehicle powered by its Apollo driverless platform will start mass production this year.
Although Didi's old rival Uber's driverless test stopped in March this year due to a traffic accident, it is already on the road.
Didi, as a latecomer in the field of driverless, still needs time to accumulate technology. In this critical period when didi is stepping up its listing, it is worth paying attention to how Cheng Wei solves this problem.